Detailed Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

1. Overview

Microsoft (MSFT) is trading at $474.96 as of June 13, 2025, following a period of pronounced bullish momentum beginning in early May, which accelerated in June after a breakout above $450. The recent price action is characterized by a sharp rally, high volume on up days, and intraday swings suggesting heightened volatility.

2. Trend Analysis

• Intermediate-Term Trend (3 months): After consolidating between $350-$400 from March to April, MSFT broke out dramatically in early May—gap-up on May 1st to $425—triggering a strong bull trend.
• Short-Term Trend (1-2 weeks): The uptrend continued, briefly pausing around $470 before breaking above $475, peaking at $480.42 (June 12 intraday high). The rally has begun to show signs of exhaustion with wicks on daily candles and high intraday volatility.
• Intraday Analysis (last 24 hours): On June 13, MSFT opened strong, tested $479, but was unable to hold above $476 and closed at $474.96, with several failed attempts to make new highs. Closing near the open and just below key short-term resistance is notable.

3. Chart Patterns

• Daily: Large bullish candles from May, transitioning to smaller-bodied candles in June, indicate stalling upside momentum—a possible bearish reversal or at least digestion phase.
• Intraday/Hourly: June 13th formed a small range ($472.80 - $476.18), attempted breakouts were sold, leaving a potential double top (479, 479.17) with a lower high on the second attempt, hinting at short-term distribution.
• Possible Hanging Man formation on June 12 near the highs—typically, a warning sign.

4. Volume Analysis

• Volume surged during the initial breakout and has remained elevated on up moves, confirming genuine buying. On June 13, volume dropped slightly as the price stalled, suggesting buyer exhaustion or reduced conviction.
• Intraday volume on selloffs (notably 20:00 and 19:30 bars) has ticked up, consistent with short-term profit-taking.

5. Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: Immediate: $470 (recent swing lows); $460 (gap support); Stronger: $450 (prior breakout level), $425 (May lows).
• Resistance: Immediate: $479–$480.42 (all-time/intraday highs); potential psychological: $500 (round number, not yet reached).

6. Moving Averages

• 50-Day SMA (est. $440): Steep upward slope, well below price, confirming strength, but the distance indicates potential for mean reversion.
• 10 & 20-Day EMAs (est. $470 & $462): Price recently closing above both EMAs; however, the gap is narrowing, and price is starting to hover or slightly slip below the 10 EMA on shorter timeframes, hinting at loss of immediate momentum.

7. Momentum & Oscillator Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  • Daily: Likely overbought (>70) as price surged from $460 to $480; historical patterns show pullbacks after such readings.
  • Hourly: Recently declining from extreme highs, now near 60-65 on last session (est.).
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Histogram peaked and is now flattening/slightly declining—early bearish crossover possible on the hourly, but not yet confirmed on daily.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Rapid move into overbought >80, now crossing bearish.

8. Volatility Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Expansion since May, most recently steady above $4-$6 per day, indicating ongoing high volatility, which often precedes short-term reversals or sideways consolidation.

9. Price Action & Candlestick Analysis

• Wicks on June 13: Repeated failures to push through $479, with intraday dips to $472-474, show supply absorbing demand at these higher levels.
• Narrowing range: Price unable to extend gains suggests either consolidation or the onset of a correction.

10. Order Flow & Volume Profile

• Large volumes were absorbed just above $475–$478, indicating possible institutional selling or profit-taking. Lack of strong buyer follow-through beyond these prices further supports resistance.

11. Fibonacci Retracements (from May 1 low $425 to June 12 high $480.42):

• 38.2% Retracement: $459–$460 — initial support.
• 50% Retracement: $452 — stronger support.
• 23.6% Retracement: $466 (recently tested intraday, held so far).

12. Elliott Wave & Extended Upside Projections

• The initial move from $425–$480 may represent a strong 3rd wave, but recent exhaustion and the RSI divergence suggest the current move could enter a corrective 4th wave (sideways to slightly down).

13. Options Flow (inferred):

• Given proximity to monthly options expiry (3rd Friday of June), there may be increased volatility and pinning near $475 due to large open interest at strike prices.

14. Relative Strength vs. S&P 500 (inferred)

• MSFT has been a market leader but may enter a short-term relative pause/reversion if the broader market consolidates after a strong run.

15. Sentiment Assessment

• Market participants are bullish long-term but cautious near-term given the steepness of the recent rally and inability to follow through at new highs.

16. Synthesis and 24H Outlook

• The weight of evidence strongly implies MSFT is overextended in the short term and is likely to see a pullback or sideways consolidation within the next 24 hours.
• Key levels to watch:
  • If $479 (intraday-high) is not breached with force and volume, profit-taking should accelerate.
  • Bearish move targets: $470 first, possibly down to $465–$460 if selling intensifies.
  • Upside is capped at $480–$482 in the near-term, unless there’s a surprise bullish catalyst.
• Signal: Given the multiple signs of exhaustion, overbought indicators, failed breakout attempts, and institutional selling near the highs, a short-term SELL/short trade is warranted, targeting a reversion to the mean (i.e., a move to $465–$468).

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Conclusion:

• Open a short position as close to $475 as possible (use limit entry), set a profit target in the $466 range where support and the 20EMA converge. Maintain a tight stop just above recent highs ($480.5) to manage risk if a last-ditch surge occurs. This structure captures both the expected pullback and, if wrong, exits quickly if the bullish trend resumes.