Metaplanet Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

Metaplanet Inc.: Bubble Burst—The Spectacular Reversal & High-Probability Short Opportunity After Parabolic Mania

The historical data shows a dramatic rally: MTPLF moved from under $3 at the beginning of 2025 to a high of $16 on May 21, before sharply correcting to $9.1 at the latest close.
This is a highly accelerated, parabolic price advance over just a few months, especially from May 1 onward, suggesting the market entered a speculative/froth phase, possibly tied to news or a frenzy buying spree.
Volume also spiked hugely during this rally – classic sign of both institutional and retail participation, and then distribution.

May 20: Gap from $5.2 to $7+, then a surge to over $7.3 and higher volume spikes.
May 21: Insane single-day rally: open at $10, high $16, close $15.35 with 30M+ volume, followed by a massive selloff on May 22 to $8.99 low, stabilizing just above $9.
Intraday data for May 22: Volatility is off the charts, with failed recovery attempts but consistent pressure and failure to hold above $10 after the opening dump.

The rapidity of the recent price move means that simple MAs (like 20-day, 50-day) are massively lagging and distorted upwards, offering little support except potentially in the $4-5 zone—far below current price, meaning the stock is unsustainably extended on classic moving-average measures.
The short-term (5-day/10-day) averages are likely to start rolling over sharply if the current price does not recover, which historically increases short-term downward momentum.

RSI would be coming off an extreme overbought (90-95) reading after the May 21 candle. After a 40% correction, RSI may still be in the 60-70s but with substantial negative divergence: rising price, but momentum no longer supporting new highs (bearish signal).
Stochastics would cross down from overbought, classic mean-reversion sign after a mania surge.

MACD lines would be peaking and possibly have started to converge or cross downwards on the latest crash, which is an initial sell trigger after parabolic runs.

The highest volumes occurred on days of both the dramatic markup (May 21), and then again on the dump (May 22). Volume on the selloff was commensurate with (but not as large as) the top day, suggesting heavy distribution rather than just profit-taking.
The uptrend was heavily volume supported, but a major chunk of new buyers are now underwater or trapped, which often leads to further forced liquidation in coming days.

The last major base (resistance turned support) is at the $8-7.50 zone, from the rapid rise on May 20. This is loose and may not hold.
The $10-$11 area (intraday action on May 22) was tested as resistance post-crash and failed.
No real technical support exists between $9.1 and $7.4 ($7.4 was May 20’s close, $8.99 was the May 22 low). Below that, the gap range from $5.2 to $7 is unfilled and could provide air-pocket risk.

Massive bearish engulfing and wide-range candles signal exhaustion and panic exit. May 22’s daily chart is an extended bear candle with very little lower tail (buyers did not step in meaningfully).

From $3.60 (May base before rally) to $16 top, key fib levels:
- 23.6%: ~ $8.08
- 38.2%: ~ $6.80
- 50%: ~$5.20
- The stock closed just above the 23.6% retrace and filled the May 20 gap. This is a classic first “weak hand” support, but deeper retrace is common after speculative parabolas.

This unprecedented volatility = heightened risk of further whipsaws. Parabolic rallies followed by >40% drops rarely find a bottom in just one day; usually, a multi-day basing or further washout occurs.
Implied volatility is likely to remain very high. The odds of a dead-cat bounce (a short-covering or retracement bounce) are real, but so too is a further flush lower as late buyers keep capitulating.

With such a speculative move, sentiment is likely to have swung from euphoria to panic/fear very quickly. No evidence of new fundamental catalyst supporting these price levels—selling is likely not done.

Virtually all signals point to a high-probability for further downside or, best-case, extreme volatility with failed rallies.
There may be a technical bounce attempt toward $10-10.5 as shorts cover and trapped longs try to sell, but the structural breakdown after a blow-off spike is more likely to resolve with a test of next supports ($8, then $7.40, then $6.80-5.2).
Risk/Reward for fresh long positions is poor here; opportunity on the short (fade bounce) side is superior.

Given these conditions, the optimal approach is to wait for a minor bounce (dead-cat bounce) to enter a short (Sell) position, targeting a retracement to deeper support levels.
Ideal short entry would be on any recovery to the $9.80–$10.00 area, with a target at $7.50–$8.00 (first major support/gap region), and stops above $11 (where recent failed rallies top out intraday).