Comprehensive Technical Analysis for NIO Inc. (NIO) – July 11, 2025

1. Price Action and Trend Analysis

• Macro Trend: NIO has been in a persistent downtrend since mid-March, falling from $5.19 to a July low of $3.41 (June 28 & July 7).
• Recent Reversal: Yesterday and today saw an upward reversal, with the price rebounding sharply from $3.69 (July 10) to a closing price of $3.90 (July 11), peaking at $4.05 intraday.
• Short-term Structure: The price action on July 11 formed a wide-ranging bullish candle on above-average volume, closing above resistance at $3.75 and $3.83.

2. Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $3.69 (recent low, July 10)
• Short-term Resistance: $3.99–$4.05 (today's high and recent cluster area)
• Higher Resistance: $4.18 (April 24 close), then $4.30–$4.39 (April 28)
• Intermediate Support: $3.83 (upside break level), $3.75, then $3.69

3. Volume Profile and Order Flow

• Volume Spike: On July 11, volume exceeded 138M (much higher than previous sessions), indicating institutional involvement and a potential capitulation or accumulation event.
• Order Flow: Early session buying pressure propelled NIO sharply higher, followed by intraday distribution with a retreat from the $4.05 highs to $3.90. Nonetheless, the session closed strong relative to previous days.

4. Candlestick and Chart Patterns

• Bullish Engulfing: July 11’s candle engulfs the prior day, strongly bullish and typically signaling a reversal.
• Potential Morning Star (3-day pattern): From July 9 to July 11, the pattern reflects possible bottom formation and momentum shift.
• No classic double bottom, but possible V-shaped recovery in progress.

5. Moving Average Analysis

• Short-term (5/10-day) MA: Has been sloping downwards but likely crossed or about to cross up due to today’s large move–confirmation on next session open.
• 20-day MA: Estimated around $3.80–$3.85, now testing as support.
• 50-day MA: Likely near $3.95–$4.10 (using chart extrapolation). Today’s failed breakout above this level suggests the need for more confirmation for a sustained reversal.

6. Momentum Indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• RSI (Estimated): Was deeply oversold sub-30 prior to the last two days; spike to the mid-40s/low-50s expected after today’s run. Still not overbought, allowing further upside.
• MACD: Likely to print a bullish cross over the next session(s), with histogram shifting positive, indicating an emerging uptrend.
• Stochastics: Very likely coming out of oversold territory, confirming the near-term momentum shift.

7. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (from last major swing)

• Downtrend from $5.19 (March) to $3.41 (July) yields key retracement targets:
  • 23.6%: ~$3.85 (already surpassed)
  • 38.2%: ~$4.15
  • 50%: ~$4.30
  • 61.8%: ~$4.49

Current move has reached and paused at the 23.6%–38.2% retracement, suggesting room for a test of $4.15–$4.30 if momentum continues.

8. ATR (Average True Range) & Volatility

• ATR: Expanding rapidly due to the wide range today. Next day’s estimated range: $0.15–$0.25, indicating high volatility and breakout potential.
• Implied Volatility: Elevated, in line with recent price dislocation—potential for sharp moves in either direction.

9. Relative Strength vs. Sector/Market

• Market Context: Many EV and China-related stocks have faced pressure in Q2/Q3. NIO underperformed but is now showing early signs of bottoming vs. its sector.

10. Psychological and Sentiment Factors

• Oversold Bounce: The aggressive move today looks like a short covering rally coupled with fresh bidding.
• Sentiment: Likely still bearish institutionally (given longer-term downtrend), but retail, momentum, and tactical traders are engaging here for a reversal. If momentum sustains, FOMO buying can ensue, driving next resistance tests.

11. Gaps and Imbalances

• No significant unfilled gaps in the recent range ($3.4–$4.05). Today’s significant move filled prior breakdown zones.

Synthesis & 24-Hour Prediction

• Bullish signals are emerging after a steep decline, with a potential for follow-through given the reversal pattern, volume profile, and recovery of key support zones.
• Critical Mid-term Resistance: $4.00–$4.05 is key; a clean break with volume can open a path towards $4.15 ($4.18), with a stretch to $4.30 possible on a short squeeze/positive follow-through.
• Risk: Momentum can stall if price falls below $3.83 (20-day MA & breakout point), with downside risk back to $3.75 or $3.69.
• Preferred Play: Enter on a bullish retest near $3.85–$3.90 in the next session; this captures a pullback to support after an impulsive move, with a stop below $3.75.
• Take Profit Target: $4.15 (38.2% Fib & prior resistance zone)

Final Conclusion

Based on the comprehensive technical signals—a high-volume bullish engulfing candle, emerging momentum, reclaim of support, and favorable risk-reward at $3.90 area—it is optimal to BUY NIO on a minor pullback, targeting a move to $4.15 over the next 24 hours.

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