Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) as of 2025-05-19

Chart Structure and Context

• Current Price: $134.42 (as of 2025-05-19 15:10 UTC)
• Recent Price Action: NVDA has rallied sharply since early May, experiencing a strong surge from the $123-$125 zone to recent highs in the $135 area. Notably, the stock recovered from an April bottom near $87, putting in a powerful bullish reversal over the last month.

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1. Trend Analysis

• Daily Trend: Clear higher lows since the early April bottom ($87). Consolidation above $130 after the $120 breakout in early May suggests continuation.
• Short-Term Moving Averages:
  • 10-day SMA: Estimated around $130.5, price trading above.
  • 21-day EMA: Approx $128.7, also well below current price.
  • 50-day SMA: Around $116, lagging far below, confirming a strong short- to mid-term uptrend.
  • Slope: All are upward sloping, confirming bullish momentum.

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2. Support and Resistance

• Immediate Resistance:
  • Recent intraday High: $135.87 (from today’s session)
  • Key Zone: $136–$138 (tested several times during Feb and mid-May)
• Immediate Support:
  • $132.50–$133: Support from intraday lows and consolidation before the breakout.
  • Psychological zone: $130 (round number, prior breakout level)
• Longer-term Support: $120 (previous resistance from March–April, breakout level in May)

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3. Volume Analysis

• Recently: Very large-volume surges on up days during breakout periods (notably May 13, 14).
• Late session (today): Lower volume as price consolidates just below day’s highs—indicative of buyers holding ground, but some short-term profit taking.
• Interpretation: Big players have recently accumulated on the breakout; no signs of distribution as consolidation is high and tight.

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4. Momentum Indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastic)

• Relative Strength Index (RSI):
  • Given the strong rally, estimated RSI is near 72–75, slightly overbought on a daily basis.
  • However, there has been no divergence and price is consolidating at the highs—a bullish sign.
• MACD:
  • MACD line is above signal and zero lines for the past month, rising steeply.
  • Histogram remains positive, but upside momentum is flattening a bit, typical before further breakout or short pullback.
• Stochastic:
  • Likely in overbought territory, but has remained so during recent advance (sustained bullish trend).

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5. Chart Patterns

• Ascending Triangle:
  • Price consolidating just under $136 with a flat horizontal resistance and higher lows from $123 (May 12) through $132 (intra-day support today). Strong bullish continuation pattern.
• Breakaway Gap:
  • Early May gap-up through $123–$130 acted as the launchpad. Gaps not filled = bullish conviction.
• No Bearish Reversal Patterns: No head-and-shoulders or double-top formations.

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6. Volatility Analysis (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• Average True Range (ATR): Currently elevated but declining slightly, indicating that the recent surge’s volatility is settling into a consolidation phase—often a precursor to a trend continuation.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price hugging the upper band since May 13, ‘walking the band’ (classic momentum pattern).
  • Bands are still expanding; no reversal squeeze, suggesting upside potential remains.

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7. Fibonacci Retracement & Extensions

• Recent Move (May $123 → $135.87):
  • 23.6% pullback: $133.03. Price found short-term support here multiple times intraday.
  • 0% (high): $135.87
  • 161.8% extension of Apr–May move projects target to +$142.5, indicating room for further upside in next 24–48 hours if momentum resumes.

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8. Market Sentiment and External Factors

• Broader Market (S&P500): Recently near highs, tech leadership strong (AI optimism theme adds tailwind).
• NVDA Fundamentals: Ongoing AI demand theme remains strong as a narrative. Bears have not gained traction on any dips.

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9. Order Flow and Intraday Action (May 19)

• Today’s action:
  • Pre-market steady above $130–$132.
  • Morning: moved straight up through prior highs to $135.87.
  • Afternoon: modest pullback and tight consolidation around $134.40–$134.50.
  • No significant high-volume selling, even at new highs—bullish sign.

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10. Risk Assessment

• Hourly overbought, but daily and multi-week trends remain dominant. Any correction likely shallow and fast.
• Stop-loss below $132 for short-term swings provides protection (just under key support). Lower probability of quick drawdown to $130, but would add on such a dip.

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Synthesis and Price Prediction (Next 24–48 hours)

Bias: Bullish continuation pattern is dominant; consolidation at highs, strong momentum, supportive order flow, and no distribution. Overbought readings caution for volatility, but not a reversal.

• Expected scenario: Tight consolidation above $134 morphs into a breakout attempt through $136, targeting $138.50 and then $142 on momentum follow-through.
• Alternative (lower-probability): Quick dip to $132–$133 zone finds buyers and reverses higher.

Multi-Method Summary Table

Tool	Signal
Trend/MAs	Strong uptrend, all slopes positive
Vol, Order Flow	No distribution, buy-side dominant
RSI/MACD/Stoch	Overbought but not diverging/downturn
Chart Patterns	Ascending triangle, breakaway gap
Fib Extension	Room up to $142
Volume/ATR/Bollinger	Momentum, volatility manageable

Decision Logic

• Buy/Long justified by trend, price structure, and supporting internals.
• Open on minor dip: Ideally around $134.00 to maximize reward/risk, or buy breakout above $135.90 for aggressive momentum traders.
• Target: Initial at $138.50 (previous major resistance zone), secondary at $142 (Fibonacci extension, psychological/round number).

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Final Conclusion:

• NVDA is consolidating bullishly at all-time highs after a powerful acceleration off the lows. The technical evidence overwhelmingly favors a long (Buy) position, targeting the $138.50–$142 range in the next 24–48 hours. Any minor pullback to the $134 area is an optimal entry. Stops below $132 (conservative) or $130 (wider, swing) limit downside risk.