NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA Prepares for Bullish Breakout: V-Shaped Recovery Fuels $143 Target in Next 24 Hours

Current Price: $131.29 (May 23, 2025 close)
Trend (Last 3 Months): From late Feb at ~$140, NVDA saw a steep correction through Mar & Apr, bottoming near $94, and experiencing a vigorous V-shaped recovery back above $130 in May.
Short-Term Trend: Since early May, NVDA rebounded from $114 to $135, consolidating above $130 with recent higher lows and marginal lower highs. This appears as a continuation pattern with mild consolidation after the strong rally.

V-shaped Recovery in April suggests a bottom was formed around $94–$97. Since then, sustained buying pressure is present with strong volume recovery.
Possible Bull Flag / Ascending Triangle: From May 13–May 23, highs remain around $135–$136, while lows are rising from $129 up to $131+. This forms an ascending base, a bullish continuation pattern if breakout occurs above $136 with volume.
Last 5 Sessions: Rangebound between $131–$135, contracting, signaling coil before expansion.

Volume Spike at Lows: April’s lows and recovery were supported by rare high volumes (400M–600M), confirming capitulation and strong hands accumulating.
Volume in May Rally: Volume on up-days since May has generally exceeded volume on minor down-days, confirming the move higher is healthy and broad-based.
Current Consolidation: May 21–23 shows contraction in both volatility and volume—a classic pre-breakout signature.

SMA/EMA 20, 50, 100 periods (Estimates):
- Given the data, 20-day SMA likely near $128–$130; price is above it, bullish bias.
- 50-day SMA sits lower, possibly $116–$120; price well above, indicating a strong uptrend resumption post-correction.
200-day SMA: Would be well below at around $110–$115, showing primary trend is bullish.
Crossovers: Recent price action shows a golden cross (short-term MA above longer-term), reinforcing bullish argument.

Estimated RSI: Given the vertical rally from $94 to $135, RSI likely surged toward/above 70 in mid-May and has since cooled to ~60–65, consistent with healthy consolidation, not overbought.
No clear bearish divergence yet, so momentum is intact.

Signal: With rapid rebound and consolidation, MACD line remains above signal line since May’s breakout, likely with some narrowing in the histogram—momentum is positive but pausing temporarily.
No negative crossover.

Key Support: $129.16–$131 (recent lows, also prior resistance; psychological and technical support)
Secondary Support: $126.63 (previous breakout post-pullback)
Key Resistance: $135.40–$136.35 (recent highs, triple top in May)
Breakout Above $136: Would signal a fresh leg higher, activating measured move up targets.

Recent Swing Low (~$94, early April) to High ($139.40, mid-Feb):
- 23.6%: $123
- 38.2%: ~$117
- 50%: ~$116
- The May rally has reclaimed the 61.8% retracement and is consolidating above it, a bullish signal. Retracement levels are now support.

ATR: Recently compressed—volatility contraction after rapid expansion indicates a probable imminent expansion (breakout move).
Bollinger Bands: Squeezing in May; price hugging the upper band, customary for strong uptrends.

Last 3 days: Narrow range candles, with daily closes clustering around $131.20–$132.83. This is often seen before a volatility spike.
Prior Sessions: No clear exhaustion candle or reversal pattern, suggesting trend remains up.

$126–$129: Heavy historical volume, strong demand base.
$135–$137: Repeated supply testing but no decisive rejection, indicating sellers are weakening.

NVDA: Strong semiconductor/AI narrative, robust Q1 ER (implied by rally), sector momentum.
Seasonality: May–June is often constructive for technology stocks.
Market Context: If S&P and NASDAQ are in uptrends, flows will favor mega-cap growth.

The confluence of a V-shaped recovery, healthy consolidation, sustained volume on upswings, and a tightening price range signals an imminent move.
The lack of selling aggression near $135 after a vertical rally implies buyers control the tape.
Measured move and projected breakout above $136.35 (
- Target: $136.35 breakout + ($136.35-$129.16 recent range) ≈ $143
The risk/reward favors a Buy on a dip to support ($130.80–$131.20) or on confirmed breakout above $136.35.
Downside risk remains moderate: If price closes below $129 on heavy volume, trend invalidation—stop suggested below recent swing low ($129).

Decision: Buy (Long position)
Optimal Entry (Open Price): $131.20 — favoring buying near current contraction/swing support to maximize risk/reward
Target (Close Price): $143.00 (first measured move projection post-breakout; scale partials at $136.35 and $140+)
Risk/Stop: Below $129 (not required for this prompt)