Comprehensive Technical Analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) – 24-Hour Price Outlook

1. Overview and Price Context

As of June 11, 2025, NVDA trades at $142.83 after a period of high volatility, with an intraday range that saw lows near $137 and a spike up to $150 before pulling back. This is set against a bullish run-up over the last month, although intraday action on June 11 reflected significant distribution with long upper and lower wicks, heavy volume, and swift rejections at the $145–$150 resistance zone.

---

2. Candlestick and Chart Pattern Analysis

Daily Candlestick Structure

• The daily candle for June 11 has a substantial upper wick (from $143 up to $150) and closes well off highs, pointing to heavy selling above $145.
• The prior sessions (June 9–10) both closed near highs, showing short-term near-term exhaustion at this level.

Intraday Patterns (June 11, 13:30–21:00 UTC)

• Series of lower highs and a failure to hold gains above $145 after the morning bid.
• The 20:00 UTC candle’s range ($137.10 low, $150.13 high) shows an extreme volatility spike, permitted by a likely news or systemic event, but resolved in favor of bears with a close beneath $144.

Pattern Conclusion

• The combination of long upper wicks, intraday failed breakouts, and strong rejection at $145–$150 suggests distribution and short-term topping behavior.

---

3. Trend Analysis

Short-Term Trend (1-5 Days)

• Uptrend intact from early June, as prices have been making higher highs and higher lows since the post-May earnings induced gap.
• However, price is struggling to sustain above the $143–$145 resistance area.

Medium-Term Trend (1-4 Weeks)

• Trend is positive, but RSI divergence (see Indicator section) and massive volumes on red candles hint a trend reversal brewing.
• EUR 5EMA ($143.8) and 20EMA ($141.5) suggest $142.5 is a pivotal level. Closing consistently below $142 would be a trend shift.

---

4. Volume and Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Volume Profile

• Massive volume spikes on sell-off candles (e.g., May 29, June 11) versus thinner volume on up days.
• Distribution signaled above $145, with big players taking profits.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) / Acc/Dist Line

• Rising OBV from late May into early June but plateauing in the last three sessions.
• Negative divergence suggests weakening buying pressure.

---

5. Technical Indicators Synthesis

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• RSI over 70 on June 10 and 11, now pulling back towards 65. Classic sign of overbought market entering mean reversion zone.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• MACD histogram topped out and beginning to converge, signaling momentum loss and a potential bearish cross.

Bollinger Bands

• Price pushed outside the upper band (~$145), then quickly reverted back inside, suggesting an exhaustion gap.
• Mean reversion to the 20-bar average (~$141.5) likely.

Fibonacci Retracement Analysis (from May low ~$120 to $150 high)

• 23.6% Fib: ~$143.3 — acting as resistance/current pivot.
• 38.2% Fib: ~$139.3 — likely first target on pullback.
• 50% Fib: ~$135 — deeper retracement target if selling accelerates.

Ichimoku Cloud

• Price flirtation at the upper edge of the conversion line, but a thickening cloud ahead indicates increasing resistance and potential turbulence.

ADX/DMI

• ADX > 40, but +DI and -DI converging, warning of an imminent trend loss.

Stochastic Oscillator

• Crossed down from an overbought condition above 90, now at 78 and declining.

---

6. Price Action and Order Flow Analysis

Support/Resistance

• Immediate resistance: $145 (psychological and technical)
• Next key resistance: $150 (intraday spike/overtop – likely blow-off top)
• Immediate support: $141.5 (20-EMA, also session lows)
• Next major support: $139.0 (38.2% Fibonacci), then $135 (big volume shelf, 50% Fib)

Order Book/Flow Dynamics (extrapolated)

• Heavy offers appeared above $144.5 intraday, with aggressive market selling taking the price down post-20:00 UTC.
• Lack of bid follow-through under $142 on repeated tests suggests short-term weakness.

---

7. Volatility Analysis

• Implied volatility spiked during $150 test; large price swings in short windows indicate risk of further sudden drops.
• Typically, after such a volatility blow-off, markets experience at least a short-term mean reversion lower.

---

8. Seasonality & Macro Overlay

• Post-earnings rallies often see 7–10% retracements after fast runs like the one since May. Macroeconomic sentiment for tech has been bullish, but AI sector stocks are running hot and thus at risk for profit taking.

---

9. Confluence & Synthesis

• Multiple forms of exhaustion: RSI, MACD, failed breakouts, volume spikes.
• Price below fast EMA with bearish engulfing candle after a failed new high.
• Heavy resistance at $145 and psychological rejection at $150.
• Fibonacci retracement targets suggest at least a pullback to $139–$141 in the next session.
• Volatility, distribution, and waning momentum suggest a tactical opportunity to short/sell.

---

10. Trading Plan

• Sell (Short) bias: Objective, mean reversion to $139–$140 within 24 hours is probable. If momentum accelerates, $135 is the deeper target. Risks include surprise reversals from macro/sector news, so tight risk management is advised.
• Optimal Entry: $143.00–$143.50 range (just below current price, sell into any bounce toward $143). This maximizes reward:risk given the setup and overhead resistance.
• Take profit/cover at $139.20 (Fibonacci 38.2%, key volume shelf, prior pivot area).

---

11. Risk Management

• Stop loss ideally above $145.50 (just above recent failed highs/resistance zone).
• Position sizing should account for high volatility and potential for squeeze.

---

Final Assessment

NVIDIA is overextended, showing clear signs of short-term exhaustion and distribution just below the $150 psychological round number. While structurally bullish longer term, the next 24 hours heavily favor a tactical SELL/SHORT position initiated near $143, targeting a pullback to the strong support cluster at $139–$140.

Decision: SELL (Short Position) near $143.00. Take profits at $139.20. Reassess if the price closes above $145.50.