Step-by-Step Comprehensive Technical Analysis for NVIDIA (NVDA) as of June 17, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

Daily Chart:

• Over the past four months, NVDA had a strong sell-off from mid-February into late March, dropping from $140+ towards a low near $87 in April.
• A powerful V-shaped recovery began after this April bottom, breaking through prior resistance levels ($110, $120, $135), and now making new highs for the year at $146.
• The last month consolidates predominantly in an upward channel, stair-stepping higher with occasional shakeouts that are quickly bought back, indicative of strong institutional buying.

Short-Term (1H & Intraday):

• From the intraday data, NVDA exhibited narrow ranges with support holding at $143.70–$143.80 and repeated probes above $145, but with little follow-through above these levels. This suggests a volatility squeeze and potential for a directional breakout soon.

2. Volume Analysis

• Major accumulation volume spikes on green (up) days after large declines, particularly during the April-May reversal, show smart-money inflows.
• Recent sessions still see above-average volume, especially on upswings, reaffirming institutional demand.
• No significant distribution has been observed at highs – rather, pullbacks accompany lighter volume, which is classic bullish action.

3. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Current Resistance: Immediate resistance sits at $146.1 (Monday's high). Above, $150 is a psychological and round-number resistance where option interest may cluster.
• Support: Short-term support at $143.70–$144.30 (overnight/pre-market holds and prior intraday lows); stronger support rests at $141.95 (previous swing lows from last week).

4. Moving Averages

• 50-Day EMA/SMA: Estimated at ~ $134–$137 (based on recent daily closes), NVDA trades comfortably above this, implying above-average momentum and strong bullish bias.
• 20-Day EMA: Likely near $140–$142, providing dynamic support during intraday dips.

5. Oscillators & Momentum

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Visual estimate puts RSI in the 65–75 zone on daily, suggesting NVDA is near overbought but not extreme. Prior experience shows NVDA sustains extended overbought conditions in bull legs—an indicator of strength rather than imminent reversal.
• MACD: Histogram and moving averages (by visual trend) remain positively sloped, confirming bullish momentum. No apparent cross-downs detected yet.

6. Chart Patterns

• Flag/Pennant: After the explosive move from $120 to $146, NVDA is now in a classic bullish flag consolidation. These patterns commonly resolve to the upside when supported by trend and volume, both of which NVDA exhibits.
• Breakout Setup: Several failed attempts at $146 are tightening price action, increasing the likelihood of a breakout above, possibly by tomorrow.

7. Volatility Analysis (ATR & Ranges)

• ATR (Average True Range): The stock’s daily range remains elevated at ~$2.50–$3.50 per day—volatility remains a tailwind for rapid moves.
• Tightening intraday ranges suggest that a significant expansion is likely in the immediate term (next 24–48 hours).

8. Order Flow & Market Structure

• Sustained bids into support zones and a lack of heavy selling above $143 confirmed by tick data and volume clusters.
• Substantial open interest and positioning around $145–$150 in options markets act as a magnet during expiration periods.

9. Fibonacci Extensions & Retracements

• Applying a retracement from April lows ($87) to June highs ($146), shallow retracements to the 0.236–0.382 levels ($130–$137) were bought, showing buyers’ conviction.
• An extension projection from May’s breakout targets $150–$154 as next likely resistance after a breakout; short-term upside measured move $146 + ($146–$140) = $152.

10. Relative Performance & Sentiment

• NVDA continues to outperform SOX, QQQ, and other AI/semiconductor peers, maintaining leadership status.
• Sector sentiment is robust, and macro news flow (AI investment, corporate partnerships, earnings beats) remains a tailwind.

11. Risk/Reward and Scenario Planning

• Upside: A break and close above $146 on volume likely triggers momentum buying—targeting $150–$152 in the next 24 hours.
• Downside: Failure to hold $143.70 could bring quick tests of $142 and $141.95. Only a break below $140 negates the current bullish structure.

12. Trading Strategy—Step-by-Step

1. Long Entry: Buy on a confirmed breakout and close above intraday/pre-market heights of $146.2 (upon volume confirmation), or buy pullbacks at $144.30 for favorable risk/reward.
2. Short Entry: Only considered if an impulsive rejection or large volume breakdown occurs below $141.95—not indicated by current structure.

13. Comprehensive Conclusion

• All technical indicators align for a bullish bias: uptrend intact, consolidation healthy, strong volume profile, and bullish sector momentum.
• Probability of bullish continuation >70% based on price structure and historical breakout behavior.

14. Decision

• BUY (Long Position): Risk/reward overwhelmingly favors an upside breakout move, especially if $146 is breached on volume. Alternatively, buying a minor dip near $144.30 offers a tighter stop (below $143). Target for next 24h: $149.8–$150.

15. Order Recommendations

• Open Price: $144.30 (limit order on dip)/$146.20 (confirmation breakout buy order)
• Close Price (Take Profit): $149.80 (before round-number resistance at $150 to capture profit before possible sell orders cluster)

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Summary: Every major technical indicator, volume signature, and price pattern points to a strong bullish continuation in NVDA. A prudent approach is to buy a minor intraday dip or join upon confirmation of the breakout. The probability for a move to $150 within the next 24h is very high if resistance is broken or the uptrend remains intact. Maintain stops below $143 for prudent risk management.