Step-by-step Technical Analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

1. Trend Analysis (Price Action & Longer-Term Structure)

Examining the chart from late February to mid-June 2025, several trends manifest:

• Late February to Early April: The stock saw notable volatility and a pronounced correction, dropping from the high $130s to lows near $86–$94.
• Mid-April to May: Initiation and confirmation of a recovery phase, making a series of higher lows and higher highs; the bottom is established around $86–$94.
• Late May to June: Acceleration of the uptrend, with multiple closes above $130, a clean breakout in late May (29th, close at $139.19), and extension into the mid-$140s.

Throughout, pullbacks are bought quickly, and volume during breakouts supports new highs—suggesting strong bullish institutional activity.

2. Support and Resistance Analysis

• Major Support Levels: $130 (recent breakout), $137.50 (recent consolidation breakout), psychological $140 (recent resistance, now acting as new support).
• Major Resistance Levels: $145–$146.20 (recent highs, tested multiple times but not conclusively broken on volume), $150 (next round psychological target if $146.20 is cleared).

The recent price movement hovers just below the $146 resistance, with the most recent close at $143.85. Support at $140 has repeatedly held on pullbacks, indicating accumulation.

3. Volume Analysis

• Significant volume spikes correspond with upward price action—particularly May 29th ($139.19 close on 370M shares) and early June ($143–$145 range average 160–240M shares). High volume on rallies and average or below-average volume on slight pullbacks is textbook bullish.

4. Candlestick/Chart Pattern Recognition

• Recent daily candles often have long lower wicks and close near or at the highs—suggesting persistent dip buying.
• Several bullish engulfing patterns and ‘hammer’ candles in the mid-June periods, especially near support at $140–$143, indicate reversal/bullish continuation.
• Price currently builds a bullish flag/pennant above $143, consolidating after the strong rally from $137–$146. This pattern often resolves higher under high-volume uptrends.

5. Moving Averages Analysis

• 20-day SMA/EMA: The price is consistently above the short-term (20-day) moving average ($140–$143 region). Every time the price retests this zone, bulls reassert control.
• 50-day and 100-day SMA/EMA: Both are trending up, with the 50-day estimate near $134–$137. Price sitting healthily above, showing a strong medium-term trend.
• No recent bearish crossovers—implying no reversal of the longer-term uptrend.

6. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Based on recent rallies and consolidation, estimated RSI would be 65–75—suggesting the stock is not yet overbought, but is close to entering overbought territory. This can persist in a strong trend, so while a caution, it is not a short candidate yet.

7. MACD Analysis

• MACD (12,26,9) is likely bullish and trending higher. Recent price momentum shows growing separation between MACD and signal lines since mid-May, with no bearish crossovers.

8. Bollinger Bands & Volatility

• Price has frequently tagged the upper Bollinger band during thrusts, then consolidates mid-band (~$143–$144), indicating strong momentum but controlled volatility. No evidence of volatility exhaustion (band width expands during rallies, contracts during pauses).

9. Fibonacci Retracement & Projections

• Retracement from May lows ($94) to June highs ($146.20):
  • 23.6% Fib = ~$134 (recent base),
  • 38.2% Fib = ~$125,
  • No deep retracements in recent weeks—each shallow pullback is being bought, a classic sign of trend continuation.

10. Elliott Wave Structure (Subjective)

• The rally since May looks impulsive, with the latest pullback representing a short-term wave 4 consolidation within a wave 3/5 advance. Suggests another leg higher possible before major exhaustion.

11. Order Book Context (if available – inferred)

• Given strong institutional volume on breakouts and tight consolidation above $140, likely significant buy orders clustered in the $140–$143 area, while sell stops only begin accumulating above $146 (recent highs).

12. Sentiment and Momentum Check

• Market sentiment remains bullish given AI sector tailwinds and NVDA’s clear leadership. No evidence of distribution (no high-volume sell-downs), and pullbacks are orderly. Momentum remains robust.

13. Prediction for Next 24 Hours

• Odds favor a breakout attempt above $146.20, especially if futures/indices remain supportive. If the price holds above $143 and volume is average-to-strong, an intraday or closing new high likely occurs. Should there be a brief pullback to $143–$144, this would offer another low-risk entry for trend continuation traders.

14. Risk Management and Stop Placement

• If long, stop should be placed below recent swing low ($142), as breakdown there could target a retrace of the $137 area. Given the trend, risk is skewed to the upside until clear exhaustion triggers (e.g., high-volume reversal candle above $146, which has yet to appear).

Conclusion: Comprehensive signals across classical and quantitative methods indicate NVDA is in a healthy uptrend, with strong support and robust interest from large buyers. The most probable outcome is a continuation higher over the next 24 hours, with a breakout above $146. However, a brief dip to the $143 area could occur, which would be an excellent entry point for a long (buy/hold) position.

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Recommendation: BUY with optimal entry at $143.50 (on a brief dip/consolidation), targeting a breakout move to $146.80 in the next trading session. Maintain a stop-loss below $142 for prudent risk management.