Comprehensive Technical Analysis: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

1. Trend Analysis (Daily & Intraday)

• Recent Price Action: In the last 2 months, NVDA has advanced from a low around $94 (April 2025) to $155 (June 2025), sustaining a powerful uptrend after a mid-May breakout above the $135 congestion zone. The past week posts relentless strength: June 24: $147.89, June 25: $154.31, June 26 (last close): $155.02—a near-vertical move.
• Intraday Microstructure: June 26 saw several sharp moves: highs up to $157, but sharp downdrafts (notably 12:00–13:00 UTC, low of $145.59) point to intraday volatility and profit-taking just above $156.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spikes: Big volume surges accompanied recent advances—on June 25, 269M shares. The last three sessions hold >180M, with intraday data for June 26 showing heavy activity in pullbacks as well as in upward thrusts—evidence of both FOMO buying and institutional distributing into strength.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Support: $147.80–$149.30 (prior highs June 24–25), then $154 (intraday retest level).
• Resistance: Immediate at $156.50–$157 (multi-hour intraday highs), then blue-sky territory above.

4. Candlestick Patterns

• Recent Candlesticks: June 25 formed a large white candle—a conviction bar. June 26’s candle (high $156.71, low $154) shows an upper wick, signaling supply at these new highs; recent 4-hour and 1-hour candles show long upper shadows, classic for distribution.

5. Momentum Indicators

• RSI: Estimated on this explosive run, RSI (14) is likely above 70—well into overbought territory, classically warning of near-term exhaustion.
• MACD: Very bullish, with the MACD line well above signal and large histogram bars—however, the gap between them is now extreme, which is a common precursor for MACD cross-down or momentum divergence.

6. Moving Averages

• 20/50/200 EMA: 20-EMA (short term) is flying high—likely around $150–$152; price is stretched >2% above its 20-EMA, a situation often leading to mean reversion. 50-EMA is lagging far behind, suggesting substantial extension.

7. Fibonacci Extensions / Retracements

• Fib Extension from $95 (April) to $135 (May) breakout:
  • 100% extension: ~$175
  • 61.8% extension: ~$155 (current price zone)
• Fib Retracements (of current $155 move): A healthy correction often brings price to 23.6% ($150.6) or 38.2% ($146.6) retracement.

8. Oscillators & Overbought Signals

• Stochastics: Implied well above 80, further supporting extreme overbought status.

9. Bollinger Bands

• Observation: Price is close to or above the upper band (likely near $154.8–$155.5), a classic technical sign of short-term overheating.

10. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• Parabolic Advance: Since late May, price action is near-vertical, with little in the way of consolidation; this is typically unsustainable and resolves via either sharp pullback or sideways correction.
• Bearish Divergence: Intraday highs not confirmed by volume (diminishing volume on highs in final hours of June 26) indicate a bearish divergence.
• Reversal Risk: The wick-heavy candles at $156–$157 are warning signs for a short-term reversal.

11. Tape Reading / Price-Action Triggers

• Failed Breakouts: Several intraday rejections at $156.30–$157, and a sharp drop to $145.59 midday, points to large sellers defending $156+ and stop-runs.
• Liquidity Gaps: The midday June 26 drop to $145.59, then rapid recapture to $154, suggests high-frequency traders and algos are testing liquidity and triggering stop-losses. These are often precursors to corrections.

12. Sentiment & Risk-Reward

• Extended Sentiment: The move has become a crowded trade; sentiment is euphoric, but the overhead supply has increased—as shown by rapid profit-taking intraday.
• Risk to Reward: Chasing here exposes to high risk; optimal setups favor fading after such runs.

13. Option Flow Analysis (Inference)

• While options chains aren’t shown, typically after such parabolic runs, short-term OTM calls spike; mature uptrends often peak as these buyers capitulate.

14. Summary & 24-Hour Outlook

• Bias: Immediate-term, NVDA is technically overbought, showing signals of pending mean reversion after a historic run. Intraday price action suggests a likely reversal or at least a sharp correction, possibly down toward $150 or lower in the coming 24–48 hours before the uptrend can resume (if at all).

15. Strategy Recommendation

Given all the above, the optimal risk/reward trade is a short (Sell) position at or near current price, with an initial target at the 20-day EMA or at first major support, i.e., $148–$150 zone. Stops should be above $157.50 in case of a squeeze.

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