Detailed Technical Analysis for NVIDIA (NVDA) – 2025-06-30

1. Trend Analysis (Long-Term and Short-Term)

Long-Term (March–June 2025)

NVDA has demonstrated a robust uptrend from early March 2025 ($~114) to late June 2025 ($~158), a rally of almost 40% in under four months. Most notably, the stock consolidated throughout May and broke above $140 decisively in early June, indicating strong institutional buying interest. The consistent progression of higher highs and higher lows confirms the underlying bullish trend.

Short-Term (June 2025)

In June 2025, NVDA again exhibited strong momentum, pushing from the $140s to approx. $158. This surge accelerated after breaking previous resistance at $147–$150 (especially visible on June 24–26). The closing price on June 30 ($157.99) is just below the session high, and the last few daily candles show large real bodies and higher closes, indicating sustained demand.

2. Chart Pattern Recognition

• Ascending Trend Channel: Measured by the sequence of higher highs since early June 2025 ($144 → $158).
• Breakout Zone: The break and hold above the $150 area is significant. This was previously a major resistance zone.
• Bullish Marubozu / Wide Range Bodies: The recent daily candles are large-bodied and bullish, suggesting momentum buyers are in control.
• Gap-and-Go: There is minimal retracement after recent surge days (especially the run-up June 24–27), typical for strong trend accelerations.

3. Moving Averages Analysis

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA) – 20, 50, 200:
  • The recent close ($157.99) is well above any conceivable 20/50/200 SMA, based on the price history. This puts NVDA in a bullish alignment with moving averages supporting as dynamic support.
  • No sign of moving average convergence/divergence suggesting correction; rather, the stack remains bullish.

4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• While precise RSI is unavailable, extrapolating from the chart:
  • The sharp rally in June likely places RSI >70 (overbought zone), evidenced by strong candles and breakout volume.
  • Historically, high-flyers like NVDA can remain overbought during momentum runs, so while it cautions late entries, it does not in itself mean reversal.

5. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike: The run-up from $147 to $158 was accompanied by a marked increase in daily volumes (esp. June 25–28).
• Accumulation: Persistent large volume on up-days versus muted selling, indicative of accumulation rather than distribution.
• No sell climax: No candle yet shows a true blow-off top or high-volume reversal; buyers remain aggressive.

6. Volatility Analysis – Average True Range (ATR)

• ATR Expansion: The daily range has increased in late June, with moves from $154–$158 daily. This signals heightened volatility during a breakout, often preceding further directional movement but also increases risk of short-term whipsaws.

7. Fibonacci Retracement (Post-June Rally)

• Key Levels: The June rally ($145 → $158) offers retracements at $154 (38%), $151 (61.8%). These would be natural secondary support should a pullback occur, but right now the price is consolidating just above the 0% level, showing bullish digestion.

8. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Support: $155 (recent intraday lows, post-breakout consolidation)
• Deeper Support: $150 (psychological, previous resistance)
• Resistance: $158.66 (recent high), then psychological round numbers $160, $165, $170.

9. Intraday Structure and Market Microstructure

• Bull Flag on Hourly: After a sharp run-up, the last few hours saw tight consolidation between $157.5–$158, forming a likely bullish flag, suggesting buyers are resting, not exhausted.
• No Supply Bars: Notable absence of large red hourly bars or high-volume reversals.

10. Market Sentiment & Contextual Factors

• Momentum names: NVDA is a proxy leader for AI and semiconductors, which are outperforming the broader market in 2025.
• No reversal signal yet: While sentiment is exuberantly bullish, there are no confirmed topping candles or exhaustion gaps on the daily.

11. Strategy Synthesis

a. Buy Dip vs. Buy Breakout

• Given the strong trend and ongoing consolidation just below the session highs, a breakout buy is favored, but prudent traders might wait for a minor dip to enhance risk/reward.
• Best Risk/Reward: Enter on a minor retracement into support ($156–$157) with a tight stop, aiming for further extension into $162–$165.

b. Sell/Short Consideration

• No technical evidence supports a near-term short. RSI is likely overbought, but price structure and volume favor trend continuation. A short position would be premature without reversal confirmation or a blow-off top.

c. Key Risk Factors

• A sharp reversal below $155 with high volume would negate the immediate bull thesis. Until then, odds favor continuation.

12. 24-hour Price Prediction

Based on the above, expect continued consolidation with upward bias. Likely scenario: Minor dip into $157 area is bought, leading to breakout over $159, with target in $162–$165 area in the next 24 hours.

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Final Decision: BUY

• Open Price (Optimal): $157.00 (buying on minor retracement/intraday support)
• Close Price (Target): $162.00 (next resistance, potential for extension to $165)

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Summary:

• NVDA is in an aggressive uptrend with high volume and strong momentum.
• Patterns, volume, and market context all favor a bullish continuation.
• Best strategy is to buy on mild weakness, with a target at next resistance. Avoid premature shorting until clear reversal signals develop.