NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVIDIA (NVDA) Under Pressure: Short-Term Correction Signals Favor Shorting at Key Resistance

Medium-Term Trend:
- Since early March, NVDA displayed a steady uptrend from ~$95 to a high near $158 on June 30. The advance accelerated post-May, especially after the stock broke out above the $120 resistance on large volume.
- Trend Acceleration: From mid-June, momentum steepened with successive higher highs and higher lows, highlighted by the strong bullish candles and expanding volume.
Short-Term Trend:
- Since peaking at $158.66 on June 30, a degree of volatility has developed. Today (July 1), price gapped down sharply during the first hour, reaching an intraday low near $151.49 before stabilizing around $153.3.

Recent Volume Spikes:
- The past five sessions saw elevated volume, especially on advances (e.g., 263M shares on June 27, 211M on July 1). This typically indicates institutional activity, with the latest move lower corresponding to profit-taking or a short-term rotation.
- Distribution or Absorption?: Despite the pullback, volume on down bars is not significantly higher than up days, suggesting no broad-based panic.

Immediate Resistance: $154.30–$155 (recent minor highs from intraday, also the close from 6/26–6/27)
Overhead Resistance: $157.75–$158.66 (all-time high zone)
Immediate Support: $151.49 (intraday low today), then $149.25–$147.90 (recent swing lows and previous breakout zone)
Major Support: $145 (psychological and 6/24 level), $141.92 (6/4 close)

Reversal / Indecision Candles:
- Today’s wide-range red candle with a lower wick suggests dip buying interest below $152, but an inability to recover above $155 signals ongoing short-term supply.
- Last three sessions: Friday/Monday closed near highs, but today’s bearish candle and failure to reclaim $154.50 confirms a potential short-term reversal or pause.

14-Day RSI (Estimate from price action): RSI recently hit overbought (>70) during the surge to $158. Now, with today’s pullback, RSI is likely cooling off but still above 60 – indicating the uptrend is intact but overextension is unwinding.
Stochastic Oscillator: Rapid drop from overbought territory, which often precedes a 2–3 session consolidation or minor correction, especially after a parabolic rally.

Short-Term (10/20 EMA):
- Prices have extended well above their 10- and 20-day EMAs during the recent rally; however, today’s break brings the price closer to an estimated 10-period EMA near $153, with the 20-period EMA around $149.
Implication: A retest of the 20-day EMA ($149–$150) is reasonable after such a sharp move, especially if volatility persists.

Bands had widened significantly post-breakout, with today’s close now inside the upper band (following several sessions hugging or spiking above the upper band). Reversal back inside often signals mean reversion or pause.

Gap Up / Gap Fill Considerations:
- Price gapped up and sustained high volume last week; today’s fast drop tested and held above $151.49, which may become a focal retracement area. Watch for further testing, as a clean close below $151 would signal deeper correction potential toward $149–$147.
Volume Profile: Notable volume nodes are clustered around $155 and $147–$149, implying those are likely battlegrounds for buyers/sellers if retested.

23.6%: ~$156.1 (already lost intraday)
38.2%: ~$153.9 (hovering around this zone now)
50%: ~$153.28 (held into the close, crucial support level)
61.8%: ~$151.8 (today’s low is just above this – strong support)
- Price respecting both 50% and 61.8% retracement – watch for breakdowns beneath for further downside.

The rapid parabolic measured leg from $149 to $158 resembles a Wave 5 extension. A correction (Wave A or ii) is possible, potentially back toward the $149–$151 area before consolidation or another upward leg.

Intra-session selling has kept prices below the developing VWAP, with failed attempts to break above $154.50. This implies short-term sellers are controlling price and supply is outweighing demand until lower levels draw in new buyers.
No V-shape recovery observed: Instead, price consolidates near lows of the day, which is cautionary for bullish trades in the immediate term.

No new fundamental drivers cited, so retracement is likely technical/profit-taking and not a fundamental breakdown.

Overall Structure:
- NVDA is in a strong primary uptrend but has entered a short-term overbought/corrective phase post-parabolic move. The inability to recover above $154.5 and today’s breakdown through key short-term supports suggest potential for further weakness toward the $151–$149 cluster, especially if no swift rebound materializes.
- The 24-hour outlook favors a short setup, targeting a mean reversion to the next lower support zones before dip buyers re-enter. Risk of further intraday downside exists if $151 breaks, with a likely bounce/playable reversal toward $149 and possibly $147 if selling pressure escalates.
- Upside is capped at resistance ($154.5–$155.2) unless sharply reclaimed by aggressive buyers.

Action: SELL (SHORT POSITION)
Optimal Open Price: $153.30 (current close price)
Target Close Price (Take Profit): $149.20 (volume node/EMA support, potential for extension to $147 if strong selloff)
Stop Loss Recommendation: Above $155.20 (minimize risk if sharp reversal above resistance)

Price action, volume, momentum oscillators, mean reversion, and failure at resistance all point toward a corrective/short opportunity for the next 24 hours with a favorable risk-reward. Monitor for buy signals near $149 for eventual swing long re-entry.