Exhaustive Technical Analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Let’s systematically analyze NVDA’s price chart, using multiple professional techniques, leading to a clear trade decision for the next 24 hours.

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1. Trend Analysis (Multi-timeframe)

Long-term (Daily/Weekly)

• Major Uptrend: Since March 2025, NVDA has moved from ~$107 to its current $158.24, showing higher highs and higher lows—a strong bullish structure.
• Recent Structure: From mid-May onwards, the chart demonstrates accelerated gains with brief consolidations. Huge institutional-volume pushes are evident on days like 2025-05-29 and 2025-06-25.

Short-term (Hourly, Intraday)

• Consolidation Zone: On July 7th, price action from intraday highs ($158.60-$159.30) repeatedly tested but failed to break higher, with several tight-range candles forming near $158.30. However, there’s no sharp reversal/distribution.

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2. Volume & Price Action

• Heavy Volume Confirmation: Large-volume up days (late June end) confirm demand absorption—no sign of climactic selling.
• Subtle Distribution in the Last 2 Sessions: Volume on July 1-2 was moderate as price rebounded, showing that bullish enthusiasm is cooling from the peak. However, July 3rd and 7th held uptrend structure with manageable pullbacks.

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3. Moving Averages

• Short-Term EMA (9/20/50):
  • All tracked EMAs (not directly shown, but can be interpolated from smooth uptrend) are aligned, signaling intact bullish momentum.
• 200-Day SMA:
  • Price is well above long-term SMA, confirming strong underlying trend.

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4. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Analysis

• Estimated RSI:
  • The sharp run-up suggests short-term RSI is elevated (likely in the 65–75 region), but not above 80. Momentum sustained, but not signal of short-term exhaustion yet.

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5. MACD Indicator

• Bullish Crossover persists: MACD likely remains above signal, since the trend is strong and volatility is muted; histogram remains positive, showing upward momentum is not fading.

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6. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Resistance Levels:
  • Immediate resistance: $159.30 (recent high).
  • Next psychological: $160.00 (bullish breakout zone), then measured move points to $163.00–$165.00 (projected target using last base breakout).
• Support Levels:
  • Near-term support: $157.25–$157.60 (multiple intraday tests, base of July 1 and July 7 trading blocks).
  • Major support: $155.00 (recent round-number base)

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7. Candlestick & Chart Pattern Reading

• Bull Flag Formation: The sideways movement over the last 3–4 sessions at ATHs, plus tight price action, suggest bull flag consolidation—often a precursor to continuation higher.
• No Bearish Reversal Patterns: No doji, shooting star, or outside reversal bar on daily/hourly close.

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8. Fibonacci Extensions

• Measured Move:
  • From previous major base ($142, mid-June) to $159, the ~$17 run projects a next leg extension, targeting $159+$17 ≈ $176 (but that would be medium-term, not for 24hr window).
  • For next 24 hours: the 1.618 Fib extension from recent $153–$159 swing points to $162 area as a likely upper limit.

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9. Order Flow/Market Depth (Synthetic from Volume Spikes)

• No Sudden Rejection Wicks: Price repeatedly visits $158–$159 and closes near highs = no strong sellers yet.
• Order absorption visible at $157.85–$157.90: Multiple attempts to break lower get quickly bought up.

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10. Volatility Metrics

• ATR (Average True Range):
  • Recent ATR is around $1.50–$2 per day, with tight hourly ranges. No explosive volatility—setting a comfortable stop below support is viable.

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11. Sentiment/Market Positioning

• Institutional Behavior:
  • Volume spikes and resilient closes near highs show funds are in “accumulation,” not “distribution.”
• Retail Overextension?
  • Not yet detected. The pace is strong but not parabolic, and corrections in late June have reset the short-term overbought scenario.

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12. Options/Derivatives (Inferred)

• Premiums and Skew:
  • Recent price action hints call buying at $160+ strikes, but no gamma squeeze signals—a steady, non-panic uptrend.

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13. Gaps & Exogenous Events

• Gaps:
  • No critical open gaps below until $155 (minor), reducing risk of sudden downward gap fills.
• Macro:
  • No major earnings/catalyst in the immediate calendar—price action dominates.

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14. Summary Synthesis/Edge

• Uptrend is well-supported by:
  • Bull flag near highs
  • Rising volume on up days, smaller pullback days
  • No reversal patterns, steady institutional buying interest
• 24h projection: High probability of breakout above $159.30, targeting $161.50–$162.00 in next session.
• Risk: A break and close below $157 would signal failed bull flag, triggering a short squeeze to $155. However, odds favor bullish continuation.

Final Decision: With strong trend, confirmed support and bases, and no reversal signals, the strategy is to go long (Buy).

• Optimal Entry: Wait for a slight dip towards $157.90 to maximize risk/reward.
• Take Profit: Plan to exit at $161.80, in line with both Fib extensions and measured ATR moves.

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Positioning: BUY NVDA @ $157.90; Target: $161.80 (24h horizon)

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