Comprehensive Technical Analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Step 1: Price Action and Trend Analysis

• Medium-Term Trend: The daily chart from March to July 2025 reveals a robust bullish trend for NVDA. The price surged from lows around $94 (April lows) to recent highs of ~$167.9 (July 11 high). This upward channel displays regular impulse and corrective swings, with increasingly higher highs and higher lows, a classic mark of a bull trend.
• Short-Term Trend: Over the last two weeks, the stock accelerated from a low near $144 (mid-June) to $167.89 (July 11), then consolidated between $164–$167 with intraday volatility, likely on profit-taking.
• Recent Volatility: Today’s session (July 11) featured an extraordinary 15-minute candle (20:00 UTC) with a wild range (~$155–$175). This is an abnormally large move compared to recent action, likely due to news or a technical anomaly—possible exhaustion gap or stop-hunt behavior. The closing action retreated quickly to ~$165, erasing most of these gains.

Step 2: Candlestick and Volume Analysis

• Daily Candles: The June-July price candles are predominantly bullish, but July 11’s candle exhibits a very long upper wick relative to the body—classic for a shooting star or gravestone doji, signaling potential exhaustion or reversal pressure.
• Volume: Volume spiked on days with significant moves (e.g., July 11, June 25–27), confirming institutional interest. However, today’s upper shadow with high volume suggests distribution—large players may be offloading positions at highs.

Step 3: Support/Resistance Mapping

• Resistance: The new all-time high at ~$167.9 (July 11) and spike high $175 (unsustained) form overhead resistance.
• Support: Multiple support levels emerge. Immediate support at $163.50 (recent breakout area), then $157–158 (previous local highs), and stronger at $153/$151.5 (June/July swing lows). Failure to hold above $163.5 may prompt a quick retest of these.

Step 4: Moving Averages and Trend-Following Tools

• Short-term (20/50 EMA/SMA): The price is well above the 20/50-day moving averages, both sloping up strongly—trend is bullish, but overextension is apparent.
• Medium/Late Trend (100/200 MA): Both much lower, again reinforcing strong multi-month momentum but also overbought conditions.

Step 5: Momentum Oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• RSI (estimate): With this vertical run, RSI is likely in overbought territory (>70). The reversal candle and rejection at highs suggest short-term momentum is waning.
• MACD: Likely separated with a wide positive histogram, potentially curling as momentum slows. Bearish divergence is probable given the sharp price spike with diminished closing follow-through.
• Stochastics: Typically signals overbought in this scenario, with potential bearish cross imminent.

Step 6: Pattern Recognition and Price Structure

• Ascending Channel: The trend is contained in an ascending channel; the upper boundary is just above the $167+ zone, which aligns with today’s spike and subsequent failed breakout.
• Shooting Star/Gravestone Doji: Today’s wild spike, followed by rapid sell-down and an upper wick, strongly points to a classic reversal candle at local highs.
• Intraday Action: The intraday chart saw price whipsaw from $163.7 (open) to $167.8, then a rapid drop to $155 (in minutes), and a rebound to $165—all suggesting increased volatility and complacency/over-eagerness in the market.

Step 7: Volume Profile and Order Flow

• High-Volume Nodes: $163–$165 appears as a liquidity concentration; the inability to sustain above $167 demonstrates overhead supply.
• Order Flow: Unusual spike and instant reversion indicate the potential for panic-buying and subsequent selling by smarter money, signaling more downside probability in the immediate term.

Step 8: Volatility Indicators (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR (Average True Range): Has likely expanded sharply. Breakouts from recent Bollinger Bands, and today’s reversion inside the bands, also indicate a potential exhaustion of range.

Step 9: Gap Analysis

• Exhaustion Gap?: Today’s sudden move to $175 that immediately retraced, with a long upper wick, is classic for an exhaustion gap.

Step 10: Correlation with Broader Market (if available)

• The analysis is focused solely on NVDA—if the broader tech sector appears weak, this reversal setup is even more significant.

Conclusion/Synthesis

• After a powerful rally, NVDA printed an exhaustion spike and dramatic reversal, accompanied by high volume. The formation of a shooting star/doji at the all-time high on massive volatility, with overbought momentum indicators and signs of distribution, suggest a short-term top is in place.
• The likelihood for a minor correction or consolidation is very high, with downside potential towards the $158–$161 zones or even a retest of $153 if selling accelerates. Risk/reward for new longs here is unattractive; instead, a short (sell) position offers favorable odds.

Trading Plan:

• Sell/Short NVDA at optimal price on minor bounces near $165.5–$166 for a lower-risk entry.
• Profit target: Primary $158.00 (previous resistance turned support); extended target $153.30 if momentum accelerates.

STOP (not required, but implied): Cover if price closes above $168.00 (recent high, failed breakout retest).

Prediction for Next 24 Hours: Expect initial minor bounce attempts, then likely renewed selling pressure driving price back towards the $158–$161 support region.

Summary: Price action and all momentum indicators support a near-term downside trade: Sell/short on minor bounce.