NVIDIA (NVDA) - Technical & Quantitative Price Action Analysis (as of July 14, 2025)

1. Trend Analysis (Daily and Intraday)

Long-Term Trend:

• Since March 2025, NVDA's price has rallied from a post-split low near $94 (April 2025) to over $164 today (+74%), indicating a sustained, powerful primary uptrend, interrupted only by broad market volatility in late March and April.
• The 20, 50, and 100-day trendlines (implied by sequential closes) are all sloping upward. Price has consistently made higher highs and higher lows from early June onward, confirming the bullish structure.

Short-Term Trend:

• In the last 10 trading days, NVDA advanced from about $154.3 (June 25) to $164.07 (today's close), punctuated by a strong move on July 8–11 (+$4 in 2 sessions), followed by tight-range consolidation ($163–$165), suggesting a pause rather than reversal.
• Intraday data (July 14) shows a sharp move up to $165.49 pre-market, then a strong selloff to $162.02 before recovering to $164.07—indicative of profit-taking, but buyers stepped in at every dip.

2. Chart Pattern Observation

• Ascending Channel (May–July): Since the consolidation near $135 in late May, NVDA has traded within a clear ascending channel, with support at each mini-correction being bought up.
• Bullish Pennant/Flag (July): From July 8 to July 14, a potential bull flag/pennant is forming, marked by a sharp upward pole (July 8–11) and a sideways-to-slightly-down consolidation, suggesting bullish momentum pausing prior to a potential breakout.
• No Major Double-Top/Bearish Reversal: There’s minimal sign of a double top or significant bearish reversal; price action remains constructive above primary support ($160).

3. Moving Average Analysis (Estimate)

• Short-Term MA (20D): Estimated around $158–$160.
• Mid-Term MA (50D): Estimated in the $150–$154 range.
• NVDA trades well above both MAS, confirming short- and mid-term bullish momentum and a potential overbought condition.

4. Volume Analysis

• Surging Volume on Breakouts: Notably higher-than-average volume on green candles (July 8, 9, 11 — 193–184m shares), especially compared to the prior week. This volume spike alongside price gains confirms institutional buying activity.
• Consolidation Pullback: Intraday volume during July 14's dip ($162.02) was intense, but volume dropped off as the price recovered—bullish traders proving resilient.

5. Relative Strength Index (RSI) & Momentum Analysis (Estimated)

• RSI (Estimated): Given the extended rally and consolidation above the 70 mark (typical of overbought), but not registering divergences, the setup is more likely to resolve through price drift/sideways consolidation than sharp reversal.
• Momentum: MACD, by implied price action, remains bullish but with a narrowing histogram, suggesting momentum is peaking short-term.

6. Support & Resistance Levels

• Primary Support: $162.00 (intraday swing low) & $160.00 (July 8 close/flag bottom).
• Nearest Resistance: $165.50–$167.90 (recent highs - July 10/11 and today’s pre-market high).
• Breakout Target: A bullish pennant signals an upside target by measuring the flagpole ($160–$165 = $5 → $170 potential near-term target).

7. Candlestick Analysis (Recent Data)

• Intraday Price Action: Major lower wick (buying tail) at $162.02 intraday on July 14 signals buyers stepping in on even shallow retracements.
• Recent daily closes are near or above session highs, typically a bullish sign.
• No bearish engulfing or evening star patterns nor major toppish reversal formations evident.

8. Volatility Observation

• Intraday range is broadening (over $3 swing on July 14), may precede a breakout move. Volatility band expansion suggests the market is coiling for a larger directional move.

9. Options and Sentiment Analysis (Implied, Based on Trading Behavior)

• Heavy volumes and narrow consolidations after runs often signal institutions are positioning for Q2 earnings or news—likely more bullish skew in order flow.

10. Quantitative/Fibonacci Extension Projection

• Fibonacci Extension:
  • From July 1 low ($153.30) to July 11 high ($167.89), a 1.618 extension projects to about $170–$172 as the next resistance.
  • 50% retrace lies near $160—strong support for any pullback.

11. Risk/Reward Assessment

• R/R for Long Position:
  • Entry: $164 (current close) or minor dip to $163.50–$163.80 (prior intraday support).
  • Target: $170–$172 (flag/pennant target + Fibonacci).
  • Stop: Just under $160 (key breakout and flag support/below volume shelf).
  • Reward ~ $7–$9/share; Risk ~ $4/share → R/R >1.5

12. Synthesis and Decision

• Bulls remain in clear control. No evidence of topping. Intraday volatility is offering buying opportunities on dips. All timeframes (short, medium, long) endorse the continued uptrend unless $160 is lost on heavy volume.
• Optimal entry is slightly below close ($163.80), with breakout confirmation above $165.50 leading to an accelerated move.

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Conclusion:

• Signal: BUY on next minor dip below $164 or a confirmed breakout above $165.50
• Target: $170.00
• Protective Stop: $160.00
• Rationale: Uptrend intact; consolidation likely to resolve upward; high institutional accumulation; flag/pennant suggests further upside is imminent.