Step-by-Step Technical and Quantitative Analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), July 15, 2025

1. Trend Analysis & Price Structure

• Daily Trend: The last four months show a dramatic upward trend for NVDA, with a consolidation in the $150-$160 range throughout June and a decisive breakout above $164 in July, culminating in a surge to $170+ in the latest session.
• Trend Acceleration: The price jumped from $164 to a high of $172 intraday today—a robust 5% move. This impulsive breakout strongly indicates bullish sentiment and a possible new leg up.

2. Volume Analysis

• Breakout Volume: Volume for today (July 15) spiked substantially (97.5 million shares at the NY open, 22:00 UTC, and massive early volumes globally). This is almost double that of previous consolidation days, signaling strong institutional participation during the breakout.
• Previous Days: Volume in the $155-$165 range had climbed steadily, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Short-Term Resistance: $172.40 (today’s high)—formed in a single impulsive spike before a partial retracement.
• Major Resistance History: Prior highs at ~$164–$165 have now been cleanly breached—the area now flips to support.
• Intraday Support: $170.03 (today’s close), $169.19 (intraday low).
• Volatility Spike: The 20:00–21:00 UTC candle spanned from $161.86 (low on a sharp shakeout) up to $178.86 (high)—this was most likely a liquidity probe before settlement and likely not reflective of orderly trading, but it signals potential hidden supply above $172.

4. Moving Averages

• 50-Day SMA: Rough estimate (using historical close prices): Now about $147.50–$148 (average of last 50 closes). Price is >15% above the 50-SMA; this usually reflects strong, but also potentially over-extended, bullish momentum.
• 20-Day EMA: (last 20 daily closes): Estimated around $160–$162. Price is almost 5% above this dynamic support, confirming momentum.

5. Momentum and Oscillators

• RSI (14, daily): Recent explosive breakout likely pushes RSI above 75—deep in overbought territory, but in strong uptrends, overbought can persist.
• MACD: Histogram likely expanding bullishly, with MACD line far above Signal—standard sign of sustained momentum.

6. Candlestick Patterns & Chart Formations

• Recent Candles: Tall white Marubozus and strong bullish candles from $160 up through $172. Absence of long upper wicks over the last 4 sessions until today’s spike indicates buyers in control.
• Today’s Action: Extreme range (over $10 intraday): Possible blow-off candle, but healthy close above $170 signals buyers absorbed any profit-taking.
• Previous Resistance (Breakout Pattern): The consolidation from ~$160–$165 now forms a classic base with an explosive breakout—likely to act as a new demand zone.

7. Fibonacci Retracements

• Recent Swing Low ($153.30 on July 1) to Recent High ($172.40 on July 15):
  • 23.6% pullback: ~$168.12
  • 38.2% pullback: ~$165.68
  • 61.8% pullback: ~$159.98
  • Given today’s close at $170.70 and the low at $169.19, buyers have defended the 23.6% retracement, showing shallow profit-taking.

8. Volatility Indicators

• ATR (Average True Range): Has spiked noticeably ($4–5 per day over the last week), in line with a parabolic move. Expect continued high short-term volatility.

9. Order Flow & Tape Reading (Intraday Action)

• Order Book Sweep: The trading during the 20:00–21:00 UTC hour saw extreme volatility: a hard flush from ~$172 to $161.87, then a rapid V-shape recovery. This likely represents a large stop-run, absorbing retail stops below the $170 round number before recovery—classic bullish trap for shorts.
• Late-Day Bids: Final hour closes at $170.03 with little selling, despite the earlier flush—shows dip-buying and resilience.

10. Comparative Strength vs Market

• NVDA has dramatically outpaced both S&P500 and Nasdaq, which have been in stalling/consolidation patterns. This relative strength usually persists as long as broad market risk is not excessive.

11. Elliott Wave Analysis

• The current price action fits an impulsive 3rd wave breakout from a wave 2 consolidation (~$160–$165 base). Target for impulsive move is 1.618x range added to base: (172–153) x 1.618 = $30.7, so possible move to $175–$180 mark on next upward push if momentum carries forward in next 24 hours.

12. Risk Management & Statistical Edge

• Gap Risk: Given the recent dramatic moves and today’s long tail wick, a sudden mean reversion is possible, but odds favor continuation first before a larger pullback.
• Stop-loss Placement: Ideal stops for long positions are just below today’s $169.19 intraday low; wider stops below $165 (old resistance, new support).
• Expected Move: 24-hour expectation: retest and possibly break today’s high ($172.40), with potential extension to $175+. Downside likely guarded by $169–$170 support; risk of brief wicks lower, but strong buyers.

---

Conclusion: Final Synthesis and Trade Plan

• Multiple techniques converge on a bullish outlook for the next 24 hours, with a potential retest of the $172.40 high and possible extension to $175–$176 if buyers stay aggressive. The healthy absorption of the post-breakout shakeout and strong close favors continued upside. However, be aware of high volatility—aggressive profit-taking or a sharp shakeout may happen. Best risk-reward is buying on a slight dip toward $170 or on a confirmed breakout above $172.40 (with volume), but prudent risk control is essential given the extended run.

Trade Recommendation: BUY (Long Position)

• Open: $170.50–$170.70 (ideal entry on slight dip/flat open)
• Stop-Loss: Close below $169.00 (conservative), or $168.00 (wider risk tolerance)
• Take Profit: Target $175.50 (first resistance extension) within 24 hours if breakout holds

NVDA remains a strong momentum trade with a positive risk-reward skew, as long as market-wide risk-off events do not abruptly hit tech stocks.