Comprehensive Technical Analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) – July 16, 2025

1. Market Context & Macro View

NVIDIA (NVDA) has demonstrated remarkable bullish momentum in 2025, with a sustained uptrend and significant price appreciation. Recent months show an acceleration from the $100–120 range (March/April) to current levels above $170, fueled by institutional interest, AI sector optimism, and exceptional financial performance.

2. Multi-Timeframe Chart Analysis

Daily Chart Evaluation

• Trend: The daily chart reveals a robust, persistent uptrend. Higher highs and higher lows are consistently established since the Q2 breakout above $130 in May 2025.
• Recent Candle Action: The last two trading sessions (July 15–16) established new multi-month highs ($172.40 intraday), with strong closes at/near session highs. The current candle shows consolidation at $171.2–171.37 after a volatile session (high $171.75, low $168.90), indicating healthy price digestion after a rapid surge.
• Volume: Surging volumes on upswings and slightly reduced volumes during minor pullbacks reflect steady buyer dominance and profit-taking absorption rather than lack of interest.

Hourly and Intraday (H Chart) Analysis

• Volatility Spike: At 20:00 on July 16, the range expanded sharply (high $180+, low $166.35) then price reverted to the mean, closing at $171.20. Also, the market absorbed this wide range calmly, ending with a tight close at prior resistance. This is indicative of stop-loss hunting and quick liquidity sweeps characteristic of institutions.
• Order Flow: Several hourly candles show tail-depth (long wicks), indicating both aggressive profit-taking and determined dip-buying. The inability to break down below $168 and repeated recovery to $171+ signals firm support.

3. Technical Indicator Overlay

Moving Averages (MA/EMA)

• Short-Term MA (5/10/20): All short-term moving averages (based on price data) slope upward, with current price well above the 20-DMA estimated near $160.50. This signals strong near-term momentum.
• Longer MA (50/100-day): Estimated 50-DMA near $144–$148, acting as a trend cushion during pullbacks. Massive separation indicates extended but persistent bullishness—typical in momentum breakouts for leader stocks.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• RSI (14-Day): RSI by estimation is ~72–75, which is considered overbought. However, leading stocks often sustain overbought readings for extended periods in strong bull runs. Still, this introduces risk of short-term mean reversion if momentum wanes.

MACD

• MACD Line > Signal, Histograms Positive: The MACD remains positively diverged, with rising histogram bars. No bear cross risk evident; bullish confirmation persists.

Bollinger Bands

• Bands: Price repeatedly tags or breaches the upper Bollinger Band (likely at ~$171). Occasional closes inside the upper band indicate controlled euphoria—volatility is expanding, suggesting movement rather than sideways drift.

Volume Profile & VWAP

• VWAP: The current price is hovering near the day’s VWAP at $171.2, hinting at healthy price equilibrium around the upper support.

4. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• Ascending Channel: Well-formed channel from April to present, containing price between $150 and $172; bullish until a channel break below $165.
• Bullish Flags and Pennants: Multiple bull flags have resolved upward, supporting trend continuation.
• Gaps and Exhaustion: No major unfilled downside gaps recently, same as missing evidence of exhaustion signals.

5. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $169.00–$170.00 (recent intraday lows, VWAP zone, and bottom of volatility band)
• Next Major Support: $165.00 (prior resistance—June swing high, channel base)
• Upside Resistance: Minor resistance at $172.40 (recent high), then nothing substantive until psychological $175–180 (where price briefly spiked intraday, now reverting).

6. Market Sentiment, Tape Reading & Order Books

• Price Reaction to Dips: Quick snap-backs from intraday lows, low liquidity at lower levels, and consistent higher closes point to a buyers-in-control regime. No evidence of distribution.
• Institutional Footprint: Volume spikes on breakouts, lack of deep retracements, and elevated open interest favor large institutional accumulation, not retail chasing.

7. Statistical & Quantitative Techniques

• ATR (Average True Range): ATR (estimated) is rising, approximately 3.2–3.6, underscoring expanding volatility—ideal for trend traders.
• Mean Reversion Analysis: Given overbought RSI and extended move, possibility of a 1–2% retracement exists—but mean reversion signals are not dominant versus trend-following bias.

8. Elliott Wave, Fibonacci & Trend Strength Analytics

• Elliott Wave: Price formation keynotes a classic Wave 3 upsurge (longest, strongest move), currently in late 3rd/4th in subcycle. Wave structure not yet mature for deep correction.
• Fibonacci Extension: $171–172 is the 161.8% extension from the last significant swing low ($153.30 to $164.92), which tends to be a powerful magnet/resistance.

9. Options & Open Interest Landscape

• Options open interest for July–August series clusters at $175/$180 strikes (gamma squeeze risk), with strong put writing at $165. This supports upward pressure as market makers hedge exposure.

10. Volatility, Catalysts, and External Events

• Newsflow: No adverse catalysts or earnings scheduled for next 24h; sector remains bid-supported. Potential upgrades and fund inflows continue.

11. Risk Management & Asymmetric Return Evaluation

• Entry after pullbacks to support below $171 represents an optimal risk/reward, as stop-loss can be set tight (below $168). Upside target leverages continuation trend and possible retest of session high spike ($175–180).

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Conclusion & Trade Decision

All indicators converge to a strong bullish regime; momentum is intact, and support is defended on every dip. Best practice is to buy near the lower end of the current consolidation zone ($170.00–$170.50) and target a breakout through $172.50 to $175+. Risk is limited by placing a stop below $168.00 (recent volatility low).

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Prediction for Next 24 Hours

High probability of a retest and breakout above $172.50, with upside toward $175.00–$177.00. Lower edge risk for mean reversion to $169 is small but present in case of broad market weakness. Base scenario: bullish continuation.

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Optimal Order:

• Buy (Long Position) at $170.30 (just below consolidation; minor pullback entry)
• Target/Take Profit at $175.00
• Stop loss (suggested, not required): $167.90 Reward/Risk Ratio: ~2.15, highly favorable.

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