Step-by-Step Technical and Analytical Evaluation of NVIDIA (NVDA)

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1. Long-Term Trend and Price Structure Analysis

• Trend Overview:

  • From March through July 2025, NVDA has exhibited a robust uptrend. The stock moved from lows near $87 in April, after a drawdown, to current prices in the $170s zone. This is a classic V-shaped recovery pattern followed by a strong continuation rally.
  • The shift from $90s to $170s represents nearly 90% gains in just over three months, highlighting exceptional bullish sentiment.

• Major Structural Patterns:

  • V-Shaped Recovery: Deep sell-off in early April bottomed at ~$86 (Apr 7), followed by an immediate reversal, recovered losses rapidly, indicating a capitulation low and strong bottom-fishing buy volumes.
  • Ascending Channels: Mid-May onwards, the price trended upward in a well-defined channel, consistently making higher highs and higher lows.
  • Breakout Zones & Gaps: Through May and June, upward momentum accelerated after breaking psychological round numbers ($120, $140, now $170). Suspicious volume clusters on breakout days (May 13-14, June 25-27, July 15) suggest participation by institutional players and short-squeeze dynamics.

2. Volume Analysis

• Major up-moves are supported by extraordinary volumes. For example:
  • Mar 19–Apr 9: Volumes peaked during capitulation and recovery, denoting institutional accumulation.
  • May 13 (129.93), May 29 (139.19), June 25 (154.31), and July 15 (170.69): All are key breakout/crossover days paired with substantial volume, confirming distribution and accumulation.

3. Recent (Hourly) Price and Candlestick Analysis

• July 17th: The price spiked from $172 to $174.16, briefly hit $177.74 (on an intraday wick), then retraced sharply, forming a long upper shadow and a close around $173, indicating potential exhaustion after a continuous multi-week rally.
• Last candle shows price stalling at $173.17 with very tight range (no volume in last tick).
• This could signify a possible local top, especially after several rapid upward moves and a failed attempt to hold above $174–$177.

4. Volatility and Relative Strength Indicators

• RSI (Estimated): Price has risen from $160 to above $173 in less than a week. This magnitude of extension would usually push RSI to or beyond 70+, signaling overbought conditions.
• ATR (Average True Range): Recent daily ranges have expanded (Jul 15–17: ~ $2.5 to $4 intraday), pointing to increased volatility which often heralds trend reversals or significant pullbacks after strong trends.

5. Moving Average Analysis

• 20/50/100-Day SMA (Estimated):
  • Current price ($173) is significantly above previous zones of consolidation ($150 and $120). Likely, 20MA is around $162–165, 50MA near $145, and 100MA possibly below $130.
  • Price > 20MA > 50MA > 100MA (classic, very strong bullish alignment). However, when the gap between price and the 20MA is stretched, probabilities rise for short-term mean reversion.

6. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension

• From the April Low (~$87) to Current High ($177):
  • 23.6% retrace: ~$159
  • 38.2% retrace: ~$149
  • If this is a minor intermediate peak, a pullback towards $159–$164 is logical and healthy before potential further upside continuation.

7. Orderbook and Psychological Levels

• $170–$175 is a clear round-number resistance zone.
• Rejection on the intraday wick at $177.74, failure to close above $175, and contracting ranges in the last several hours show supply outweighing demand at these levels.

8. Market Context and Flow

• Momentum exhaustion: Characteristic signs are emerging bullish exhaustion candles, shooting stars and doji at highs, and a non-confirmation move (price cannot sustain top tick after breakout).
• Future Catalysts: Earnings or macro news do not appear imminent from provided info, lowering the probability of immediate renewed bullish catalysts.

9. Conclusion and Next 24-Hour Prediction

• The multi-month uptrend is extremely strong, but daily and intraday extension, coupled with the failed push above $177 and heavy profit-taking at $174–$175, suggest a pullback or short-term reversal is likely before another move higher.
• Given overbought extension, high volatility, and price hovering near key resistance, risk–reward favors a short-term SELL (Short Position) here to capture retracement towards support in the $164–$165 zone.

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Summary Table

Factor	Signal	Bias
Long-term Trend	Bullish	Long
Short-term Exhaustion	Bearish	Short
Overbought RSI	Bearish	Short
Intraday Volume Reversal	Bearish	Short
Breakout Sustainability	Bearish	Short

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Actionable Trade Setup

• Sell (Short Position) at current or slightly higher if a minor bounce occurs.
• Open Sell Order at: 173.20 (allowing for minor slippage or retest into resistance)
• Take Profit (Cover) at: 165.00 (conservative profit target, just above Fibonacci and intraday support)

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NOTE: If price manages to break and hold above $177 with conviction and volume, this setup would be invalidated. Stops should be managed tightly above $177 in real-time trading.

Risk Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes. All trading carries risk. Manage stops and size accordingly.