NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA’s Relentless Bull Run: Primed for the Next Leg Higher After Bullish Breakout

Daily Trend: NVDA has had a stellar run from mid-April, rallying from lows near $95 to a recent close of $172.41. The past two months show a strong, sustained uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows.
Recent Behavior: The last few sessions broke above new all-time highs (near $170-171 resistance) and retested those levels with minimal pullback. On 2025-07-17 and 07-18, NVDA saw a break above $174 with a slight retracement to $172.41.
Intraday Volatility: On 2025-07-18, price action was choppy but held steady in the $171.8-$174.2 range, indicating consolidation at the new high. Buyers stepped in around $171.2 multiple times.

50-Day Simple MA: Sits well below at ~145, indicating price is highly extended, a strong bullish sign but also means overbought.
20-Day EMA: Estimated near $163-165. Price remains above all short and medium-term moving averages.
Golden Cross: Already confirmed long ago. All major MAs align bullish.

Breakout Volume: The surge from $160 to $174+ over the past week occurred on rising volume (over 230M avg daily), a hallmark of institutional buying.
Intraday Volume: The major upthrust sessions (07-15 to 07-17) had above-average volume. Today, despite lighter volume in the final hour, there is no heavy distribution (absence of sharp selloff after the run).
OBV: On-Balance Volume would be trending higher, confirming price action.

RSI (14D): Likely in 70-75 territory—clearly overbought, but history shows NVDA can remain overbought on strong momentum runs.
MACD: Wide separation between MACD and signal, indicating momentum is accelerating. No sign of imminent bearish crossover.
Stochastics: Likely >80 but not yet rolling over—a continuation sign.

Price Structure: The break above resistance ($170-171) and quick retest suggests a bull flag breakout, a continuation pattern during powerful rallies.
No Reversal Pattern: No topping tails, shooting stars, or major gaps, indicating no immediate reversal threat.

Fibonacci Pullback: The prior breakout zone near $171 aligns with the 23.6% retracement of this move—major support.
Fibonacci Extension: Measuring March lows (~~$95) to the May/June highs (~~$135) projects a 161.8% extension near $175, suggesting upside is near a technical target but not exhausted.

Support: $170.80 (recent breakout & retest), $168.90 (congestion), $165 (20-day EMA).
Resistance: $174.24 (today's high), $175 (psychological/fib extension), then blue-sky above.

No Signs of Major Sell Programs: The lack of hard rejections above $170/172 shows institutions are not exiting heavily yet, supporting continuation bias.

Earnings Seasonality: NVDA typically outperforms around new product cycles and strong AI momentum. News flow remains highly favorable to semiconductor sector.

ATR (Average True Range): NVDA’s ATR has expanded (likely $3–4/day), so expect wide swings, but directional bias remains up. Option pricing will reflect this—day traders should be nimble.

NVDA has likely completed a major third wave (impulse) up and is consolidating (possible minor fourth wave) before a final push to short-term wave 5 target (above $175).

Trend: Strongly bullish, minor consolidation.
Momentum: Overbought but no exhaustion. Dips are being bought aggressively.
Prediction: Given the technical confluence of breakout, volume, momentum, and lack of selling pressure, I anticipate NVDA to attempt another push toward $174.50–$176 in the next 24 hours, with possible intraday dips to $171.0–$171.8 as buy-on-dip levels.
Risk: Only a confirmed close below $170 would jeopardize the rally.

Strategy: Buy on minor pullbacks close to $171.80–$172.00 (near breakout support).
Target: $174.60–$175.80 (take profit just below psychological/fib extension levels).