Step 1: Overarching Trend & Market Context

Daily Timeframe Overview

• NVDA has staged an extraordinary multi-month uptrend: From a close of ~$94 in early April to over $171 in July (~82% gain in 3.5 months).
• Acceleration since mid-June: Notable from the breakout above $154 on June 25, moving rapidly to $170s by July 15-17. Multiple gap-ups and strong candles indicate aggressive institutional demand.

Current Short-Term Price Action

• Current Price: $171.38 (as of July 21, 21:00:03 UTC)
• Today’s Close: $171.38, with a daily range of ~$2.3 ($173.38 high, $171.06 low).
• Recent Candles: The highs of $174.16 (July 17), $174.25 (July 18), and then three days of lower highs suggest the uptrend is pausing or consolidating below $174.
• Volume: Downward volume slope from July 17-21—bulls are less aggressive, and the last day had a significant decline in trading activity (0 at the very end—market close).

Step 2: Technical Indicator Analysis

Moving Averages

• 20-Day EMA: Approximated at ~$166 (bullish alignment). Price remains above rising short- and long-term MAs.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• RSI is likely >70: Given the momentum and verticality of the run. This points to an overbought state—caution for new longs in the short-term.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Bullish signal is fading: MACD positive, but histogram plateauing. Rate of increase in closing prices is slowing—watch for possible negative crossover.

Bollinger Bands

• Price hugging the upper band for a week: Now flattening, bands beginning to re-compress. Price volatility declining, hinting at consolidation.

Volume Profile

• Highest volume on recent surge days (July 15, July 17): Supporting the breakout. However, the most recent daily candles have much lower volume on slightly down days—possible exhaustion or lack of conviction above $173.

Step 3: Chart Patterns & Price Structure

Trend Analysis

• Primary trend: Up.
• Recent structure: Possible double-top at $174 region, or at least strong resistance (highs at $174.16 and $174.25, then a 3-day pullback).
• Support levels:
  1. Immediate: $170 (psychological)
  2. Deeper: $167.90 (July 16 open), $162.88 (July 9 close), $160 (round number, recent base)

Candlestick Formation

• Consecutive spinning top/indecision candles for several sessions suggests bulls are unable to maintain momentum.
• Today's price action: broad intraday whipsaws (highs to $173.38, then drops to $171.06), followed by a flat close. Topping tail pattern.

Step 4: Intraday (Hourly) Dynamics

• Last several hours: Price failed to hold above $172.80-$173, progressively making lower highs from 13:30 to 20:00 UTC. Large whipsaw candle (20:00-21:00 UTC) indicates stop runs or volatility traps.
• No post-market buying: After a volatile 20:00 UTC hour, price flatlined at $171.24 with zero trade volume—the market is closed, so this will act as reference for opening prints.

Step 5: Advanced Techniques

Fibonacci Retracement (from June low $144.12 [June 16] to July high $174.25 [July 18])

• 50% retracement: $159.18
• 38.2% retracement: $164.05
• 23.6% retracement: $168.36
• Current price is well above even the 23.6% retracement, adding risk of a corrective pullback.

Elliott Wave

• Apparent completion of a 5-wave impulse from $144s to $174s. Small corrective wave (abc) may now be developing, targeting $167-$162 for a retest if correction deepens.

Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

• Recent intraday rejection above $173, closes near hourly VWAP. VWAP as dynamic resistance on upticks—short-term bearish.

Step 6: Market Sentiment/Positioning

• Buy-the-dip mentality still exists in NVDA due to AI hype and secular uptrend.
• However, late longs face significant short-term overhead supply at $173-$174.
• Short-term sentiment turning cautious: "Crowded trade" risk; overextended bull leg.

Step 7: Synthesis & Prediction

• Bull case: Multi-month uptrend is intact. No confirmed reversal, but momentum near-term is fading, overbought readings persist, and overhead supply is building.
• Bear case: Stalling price action, failed breakouts above $174, bearish divergences (RSI, MACD), low-volume retests of highs suggest distribution/consolidation.
• Prediction (next 24 hours):
  • Initial relief bounce attempts toward $172.50-$173, but persistent selling keeps price capped.
  • Most likely path is continued consolidation or shallow dip, with risk of corrective move at least to $169 (support/test of 10-day EMA), with extension possible to $167 area if broader indices pull back.

Step 8: Strategy & Trade Plan

Given the evidence, risk/reward favors a cautious short (Sell/Short Position), aiming to benefit from a mean-reversion pullback to support.

• Entry (Sell): On any weak bounce to $172.50-$173 (ideally, as close as possible to resistance at $172.70).
• Target: $169.00—first support zone, possible acceleration below if sentiment sours.
• Stop: Above $174.25 (recent highs), to protect versus failed breakdown and renewed uptrend.

Conclusion:

Despite NVDA's formidable long-term bull trend, the short-term is stretched, with exhaustion signs. Overbought indicators, waning volume, and resistance at $173-$174 suggest risk is skewed to mean-reversion lower over the next 1-2 sessions. A tactical short position is optimal for the next 24h window.