Step-by-Step Exhaustive Technical Analysis of NVIDIA (NVDA) as of July 22, 2025

1. Macro Trend Analysis (Daily Data)

Trend Identification

• Over the past four months, NVDA exhibited a massive rally, rising from a low ~$94 (April) to recent highs near $174 (July 17).
• The uptrend accelerated in late June and July, with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• However, the last trading sessions show notable volatility and initial signs of distribution: the most recent daily candle (July 22) displays a sharp selloff after failing to sustain highs.

Support and Resistance Levels (SR Zones)

• Major support: $164.00 (recent low, and round number, also the July 22 low)
• Significant support: $160.00 (psychological level, and high volume seen at $160 in early July)
• Major resistance: $174.00–$174.25 (multiple failed attempts in July, including July 17–18)
• Immediate resistance: $170.00–$171.50 (previous consolidation, and close levels for July 18–21)

Candlestick Analysis

• July 22: Large red candle with substantial intraday volatility ($171.35 high, $164.58 low, close at $167.03), with significant lower shadow.
• The candle reflects increased supply after a failed attempt to break higher, coupled with sharp intraday swings—a sign of uncertainty and possible reversal.

2. Volume Profile & Order Flow

• July 22 shows markedly higher volume (over 75M) during the sharp dip, indicating panic selling and/or large distribution.
• Previous rally weeks showed strong momentum but volumes have been decreasing during up days and spiking during down days.
• Current pattern points to a transition from markup (rally) to distribution (potential topping).

3. Moving Averages (MAs) and Trend Structure

• 20-Day EMA (approximation): Currently near $167, at or near market price, acting now as a tentative support.
• 50-Day SMA: Likely around $155 based on June/July price action, well below current price—uptrend intact but extended.
• Price is extended above key moving averages (20, 50, and 200-day), indicating possible overbought conditions and risk of mean reversion.

4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Recent RSI likely in high 60s to mid-70s during rally. Given today's drop, RSI has cooled but remains elevated—signs of former overbought slipping toward neutral territory.
• Divergence: Momentum waning, with price making new highs but RSI failing to do so in the last week—bearish divergence.

5. MACD Analysis

• MACD: Recent cross above signal line (bullish) but histogram flattening, suggesting momentum may be peaking or about to turn down.
• Increasing risk of a bearish crossover if prices continue to slide.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Price touched upper band ($174) last week, now mean reverting toward the middle band ($167). Today’s close sits near the middle band—risk of further downside if support does not hold.

7. Fibonacci Retracements (Using recent rally $153 → $174)

• 23.6% retrace: ~$169 (broken today)
• 38.2% retrace: ~$166 (currently sitting on this)
• 50% retrace: ~$163.5 (next support)
• Today's test and close around the 38.2% Fibonacci level is critical—if breached, expect further retracement toward $163.50.

8. Intraday (Hourly) Chart Patterns (July 22)

• After a pre-market and early session fade, the stock plunged sharply from $171 to $164.58, then rallied modestly toward $167.
• Extreme volume surge into the low indicates a possible short-term exhaustion of selling, but the weak close and repeated failure to reclaim lost ground signal sustained pressure.
• No V-shaped strong reversal, instead a tepid bounce from support—favors more downside consolidation.

9. Volatility Analysis (ATR/Recent Swings)

• Recent Average True Range (ATR): Expanded considerably this week—multi-dollar swings indicate high volatility, often a trait of market tops or breakdowns.
• Wide intraday range (over $6 on July 22) suggests heightened risk for both bulls and bears—prudent to use tight stops.

10. Market Structure & Wyckoff Distribution

• Phase C: The recent high-volume shakeout resembles a Wyckoff "upthrust after distribution"—suggesting the conclusion of an up move and initiation of markdown.
• If Wednesday fails to reverse above $170, odds favor further markdown phase toward intermediate supports.

11. Algorithms, Quants & Institutional Order Flow

• High-frequency / institutional traders often sell into weakness on failed breakouts, leading to cascade effects. Today’s action (failed rally + breakdown + high volume) likely to draw further short interest and trigger stop-losses below recent lows.

12. Sentiment & Market Psychology

• Over-optimism in early July, now shifting to fear and profit-taking—risk of further downside as trend-followers and late buyers are forced to liquidate.

13. Summary Table of Technical Outlook

Indicator	Signal
Trend	Uptrend (extended, topping)
Volume	Bearish (panic + distribution)
RSI	Bearish divergence
MACD	Peaking (bearish risk)
Bollinger Bands	Breakdown from upper band
Fibonacci Levels	Testing 38.2%, risk to 50%
Support / Resist.	Support $166, major next $163.5
Intraday Pattern	No strong reversal, pressure persists

14. Prediction for Next 24 Hours (July 23, 2025)

1. A brief oversold bounce may occur at the $166 area, but the overall signal is firmly corrective.
2. If $166 breaks early in the session, bears will target the next support at $163.50–$164.
3. If buyers cannot regain $170, the path of least resistance is lower, with possible intraday bounce attempts.
4. Only a strong reversal reclaiming $170+ with volume would negate the immediate bearish scenario.

15. Trade Plan and Rationale

• Signal: Sell (Short Position)
• Open Price: Ideally on weak bounces toward $167.50, offering low risk entry.
• Target (Take Profit): $163.50 (next major support, 50% retracement of the July rally).
• Stop Loss: Conservative stop at $170.50 (above failed resistance, limits loss if reversal occurs).

Rationale

• The technicals favor further downside due to shifting momentum, volume signatures, breakdown from critical short-term supports, and the presence of distribution/toppish price structure. While a minor bounce is possible, the overall setup skews risk/reward to the downside for the next 24 hours.

In summary: NVDA displays classic signals of a short- to medium-term top. Sell (short) bounces near $167.50 for a move to $163.50. Only cover shorts above $170.50.