Step-by-Step Technical Analysis on NVIDIA (NVDA)

1. Trend and Structure Evaluation

• Long-Term Trend (Last 3-4 Months): Since late March 2025, NVDA has been in a sustained uptrend. The price moved from lows around $94 in April to over $173 by July, marking an 85% advance. The uptrend has features of three distinct acceleration legs, with consolidation ranges between April and early June ($130-$145), then breaks to new highs through July.
• Short-Term Trend (Recent 10 Sessions): NVDA pushed from ~$158 in early July, retesting ~$164-165 then surging to recent highs above $173. The last three sessions show a clear upward breakout from a small base, but with emerging wicks and micro-volatility near the highs.
• Current Price Action: Today, NVDA is closing with a doji/spinning top candle at $173.74 after a volatile range intraday ($169.27–$182.57) but closing weak ($173.48). This strong rejection from above indicates profit-taking at highs and possible short-term exhaustion.

2. Volume & Liquidity Analysis

• Volume on latest daily candle (Jul 24) is robust, though not climactic, echoing prior pushes higher.
• Past high-volume advances (example: Apr 9 and May 29) were followed by pullbacks and consolidation.
• Recent days, volume is slightly elevated as NVDA attempts new highs—mild divergence between price push and flattening/inconsistent volume hints at short-term caution.

3. Volatility Analysis (ATR and Bollinger Bands)

• ATR Expansion: Intraday ATR has sharply risen; the July 24 candle, with a $13+ intraday range, is one of the broadest in months, suggesting heightened short-term uncertainty.
• Bollinger Bands: The close is nudging the upper band, after briefly surging way above it ($182+ wick). This classic volatility spike, often followed by mean reversion, implies that risk of a retracement is elevated following such a stretched move.

4. Momentum Indicators

• RSI Approximation: The extended runup over multiple weeks and evident upper-wick rejections suggest the RSI (if calculated) is likely in the high 70s/low 80s—deep overbought territory.
• MACD: The MACD (if plotted) would still be positive and rising but nearing parabolic extremes, consistent with overheating phase.
• Stochastic Oscillator: After three strong days, the fast stochastic should be above 90—another overbought sign, usually preceding corrections.

5. Patterns and Candlestick Analysis

• Emergent Pattern: The last candle is a long upper wick doji/spinning top after an all-time high surge. This appears to be a potential blow-off (shooting star) pattern. Previously, such patterns (e.g., May 29) led to brief retracements.
• Breakout Context: The breakout zone around $170-173, if retested and lost, would represent a potential failed breakout.

6. Support and Resistance Zones

• Immediate Resistance: All-time high print near $182.56 (intraday). Heavy supply emerged above $173-174.
• Immediate Support: $169.2 (intra-candle), then $167 and $164 from prior highs and consolidation bases.
• Gap Support: There is now a volatility gap between $173 and the $174-182 range that might be filled on mean reversion.

7. Fibonacci Analysis (from June Swing Low $141 to High $182.56)

• 23.6% Fib: $173.5
• 38.2% Fib: $168.8
• 50% Fib: $161.8 The current close ($173.74) is at the 23.6% retracement—if lost, selling could push toward $168–169 next support and possibly $162.

8. Market Sentiment and Psychological Factors

• Strong upward momentum has led to short-term euphoria and increased retail chasing (as seen in parabolic spike above $180). Usually, such sentiment peaks coincide with local tops.

9. Alternative Techniques: Elliott Wave & Wyckoff

• Elliott: The recent run may mark the fifth (final) impulse wave, with the current doji as a possible start of A-B-C correction.
• Wyckoff: The action resembles a buying climax, typically followed by automatic reaction/distribution phase.

10. Intraday Microstructure Read (Hourly Data)

• 8:00–20:00 UTC: Price surges, prints tail at $182+, but closes near session lows ($173.48). Clear evidence of supply overwhelming demand at highs within hours of the breakout—a sign of distribution and potential reversal.

Synthesis & Probability Assessment

• Bullish Case: Structure remains safe above $170. Low-volume pullbacks could still be bought if megatrend resumes, but current candle suggests supply in control short-term.
• Bearish Case: Textbook parabolic blow-off, doji rejection at new highs, and overbought readings all point to short-term pullback. Probability of $169 retest (and possibly $164) in next 24–48h outweighs chance of new highs until absorption occurs.

Conclusion & Trade Plan

• Decision: The odds favor a short-term pullback for at least 1–2 sessions following this volatile, overbought, climactic move and intraday reversal.
• Expect a test towards $169, potentially as low as $164.
• However, the broader uptrend remains intact, so shorts should be nimble, and longer-term bulls may reload on dips.

Entry & Exit Levels:

• Sell/Short entry: Ideally at a retest near/above $173.50–$174 (if overnight/futures bring a minor gap up this is optimal risk/reward).
• Target (Close): Take profit at $169.20—first major support and prior session swing low, just above the 38.2% fib retracement.

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Risk Note: Use a stop above $175.5 or $176 to cap risk against a new squeeze. Aggressive traders may scale in at $173.50–$174, tighter stops above $175.3.

In summary: The technical setup is rich for a short-term SELL/SHORT position targeting a pullback to $169, with a possible overshoot to $164 if momentum accelerates.