NVIDIA (NVDA) Targets New Highs: Technicals Signal Further Rally Amid Strong Momentum

Deep-Dive Technical Analysis for NVDA as of July 25, 2025

1. Trend Analysis

• Medium-Long Term (March to July 2025):

  • NVDA has exhibited a persistent uptrend since its post-March correction. After bottoming in early April (~94), the stock rebounded steadily, driven by higher highs and higher lows, with the most recent consolidation breakout above ~165 in early July.
  • The acceleration phase occurred between May and mid-July, moving from sub-140 to 173+, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment and robust momentum.

• Short-Term (July):

  • The last several sessions (July 15-24) show NVDA holding and extending above prior resistance-turned-support at 170 and clearing recent swing highs. Price action post-breakout has remained constructive, with a slight pause just under 175 as the market digests gains.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume in June through July has been elevated, especially on upward moves (accumulation), confirming institutional participation. Daily volumes on up days routinely outpace down days, reinforcing the bullish bias.
• Substantial volume increase during breakouts (notably June 25 above 150, July 9 above 162, and July 15 above 170), with lighter pullback volumes – classic trend confirmation.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: 173 (minor – near closing price), 170, 167
• Major Support: 162.5 – 164 (prior multi-week high and breakout base)
• Immediate Resistance: 174.7 – 175 (recent intraday highs), psychological round figure, and slight congestion
• Next Major Resistance: No prior historical data at higher levels, may face psychological resistance at 180, then 190 (extension targets)

4. Moving Averages (Estimated from Data)

• Short-Term (20-day): Estimated near 169-170, well below current price, acting as dynamic support.
• Medium-Term (50-day): Trending ~155-160, also providing substantial support. Both MAs are positively sloped and have experienced a bullish crossover earlier this quarter, confirming strong trend.

5. Momentum Oscillators (RSI, MACD - Simulated)

• RSI (est. 14-day):
  • At ~173.5 after a steady rally, likely in the 68-74 range – approaching but not yet exceeding overbought. This is typical for strong trends, but signals watchfulness for a short-term pullback or consolidation phase.
• MACD:
  • The MACD line is above its signal line and in positive territory, indicating a continuation of bullish momentum. Histogram bars are slightly narrowing, suggesting momentum may be peaking but not reliably reversing yet.

6. Chart Patterns

• Ascending Channel: The chart since May reflects an ascending channel, with price hugging the upper boundary. Minor pullbacks to mid-channel were promptly bought.
• Consolidation & Breakout: After pausing near 165-170, NVDA broke higher mid-July, completing a bullish flag or pennant. The measured move suggests extension potential toward 180-185.

7. Candlestick Action & Microstructure

• Numerous bullish closes near highs of major sessions.
• Intra-day: Slight rejection just above 174.70 on July 25, with the close near 173.5, implying resistance is being felt at this level but there is no major reversal candle (no bearish engulfing or shooting star), reducing likelihood of imminent reversal.

8. Volatility (ATR Analysis)

• ATR (14): Estimated at ~3-3.5 in recent weeks. That implies a tight resistance/support window (~2% of price), but still favorable for moves to 176–177 if momentum persists.

9. Relative Performance (to Market/Peers)

• NVDA’s 2025 YTD outperformance versus SOX index/tech peers is notable. The stock’s beta means it tends to gain more in risk-on environments. There is no technical evidence of sector rotation away from semiconductors at present.

10. Fibonacci Extensions & Projections

• The post-April correction (low ~94 to breakout above 170) sets up a possible extension target at the 161.8% level, which projects to ~184-185 – a likely medium-term upside target, with 175.5–178 as the next short-term resistance extension.

11. Volume Profile (Recent Session Microstructure)

• Recent high volume between 173.5–174.7 shows committed buyers and liquidity. Weak hands may sell into 175, but there’s no supply shock visible.

12. Risk Management (ATR, Stop-Loss)

• For a new long, ATR suggests a stop-loss window of 2.5-3.5 below entry (e.g., below 170), with profit targets scaled near 177 and/or trailing as price breaks higher.

13. Summary & Synthesis

• Bullish Trend Intact: All technicals point to continued bullish momentum. While NVDA is extended short-term, strong volume on advances, resilient price action, and the absence of reversal signals make the risk/reward still attractive.
• Upside Potential: Next technical target sits at 177.5–178 (short-term) and 185 (medium-term).
• Pullback Risk: Minor pullbacks to 171.5–172.5 are buyable, given the healthy trend. True trend change would only be signaled by a close below 167.

14. Market Context, Fundamentals & Catalyst Awareness

• While not strictly technical, NVDA remains a momentum stock tied to AI, semiconductors, and strong earnings growth. FOMO and chase behavior may amplify breakouts. Macro risks (Fed, inflation, geopolitics) could trigger a reversal, but are not flashing warnings at present.

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FINAL DECISION: BULLISH BIAS, BUY ON DIP OR BREAKOUT.

• Optimal Entry: Slight intraday softening to 173.2–173.3 (near VWAP/support in microstructure), or breakout confirmation above 174.7 (for momentum traders).
• Profit Target: 177.5 for short-term traders, 185 for swing/positional.
• Stop-Loss: 170 (protects against failed breakout and microstructure breakdown).