Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for NVIDIA (NVDA)

1. Price Trend Analysis

The daily chart data for NVIDIA reveals a dominant uptrend over the past several months. NVDA has moved from around $105 in late March 2025 to a recent close above $176 as of July 28, 2025. Notably, the uptrend accelerated after the beginning of July, with the price breaking out of prior consolidation ranges and moving rapidly higher.

Short-term, the last two weeks saw NVDA bouncing strongly from the $156–$158 range up to its current highs. Each pullback has been shallow and met with buyers, evident from the string of higher lows and higher highs.

2. Candlestick & Price Pattern Analysis

• The most recent daily candles are large-bodied bullish candles, particularly between July 15th and July 28th, suggesting strong buying pressure.
• There's no classical pattern of exhaustion or reversal (like evening star or shooting star) yet.
• The July 28th session showed a high of $176.98, closing near the highs at $176.75. Intraday, the price encountered volatility between $168 and $184, but closed strong, tightening at the upper end, a bullish sign.

3. Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate support lies at $173.50 (July 25th close) and $170.78 (July 23rd close).
• Further robust support is at $167.03 (July 22nd low) and $164.92 (July 11th high, recent resistance turned support).
• The next key psychological resistance is at $180, followed by a round-number target at $200 if momentum continues.

4. Volume Analysis

• Volume has increased sharply on up days, showing broad participation by institutional investors especially on recent breakouts (e.g., 136.6 million shares on July 28th).
• No distribution or climactic high-volume reversal observed yet. Buyers remain in control.

5. Moving Averages (Short/Medium-Term)

• The 20-day moving average (EMA, estimated from recent closes) is around $170, well below current prices: the stock is trending well above its short-term average—a classic momentum signal.
• The 50-day EMA (closer to $158) confirms the strong medium-term uptrend and momentum.
• Both averages are upward-sloping, and price stays above them: no sign of an imminent pullback.

6. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• RSI is likely above 70, suggesting overbought by traditional standards. However, for very strong, momentum-driven tech stocks (like NVDA), RSI can remain overbought for extended periods during blow-off tops.
• There's no bearish divergence—RSI is moving higher along with price, confirming the move.

7. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• MACD line is well above signal, both sloping upward: momentum remains positive and rising. No sign yet of slowdown or crossover.

8. Bollinger Bands

• Price action is hugging/pressing the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong up-move. While this can sometimes precede short-term pullbacks, in strong trends it often signals continuation.

9. Fibonacci Retracements

• The recent advance from $156 (early July lows) to $176 ($20 move) would see support at $172.60 (38.2%) and $170 (50%). No significant pullback toward these levels yet, which means upside momentum is intact.

10. Short-Term Chart (Hourly/Intraday)

• Intraday volatility was evident July 28, with a dramatic spike ($168–$184 in one hour), but the price quickly stabilized and consolidated near the highs. This sort of volatility is often seen at the start of a further breakout or acceleration, especially if not quickly reversed.

11. Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

• NVDA closed above its intraday VWAP for the July 28 session, reflecting strong accumulation and conviction from buyers.

12. Sentiment and Momentum

• No apparent technical resistance overhead; all-time highs are being set.
• Breadth and sentiment remain extreme, but not yet at a point of euphoric reversal.

13. Statistical Volatility Measures (ATR)

• ATR (Average True Range) is rising, denoting higher levels of volatility and opportunity for large daily moves, optimal for momentum trades.

14. Contextual Considerations

• The AI and semiconductor narrative continues to dominate headlines, lending fundamental support.
• No obvious sign of news-driven reversal or profit-taking.

Conclusion: Trade Plan

Despite an overbought reading on some traditional measures (RSI), all multi-timeframe signals remain bullish. Breadth, volume, trend and momentum are aligned. Short-term, a minor pullback toward new support ($174–$176) is possible but not required in a momentum-driven move.

I recommend a BUY/Long position at the next real pullback toward $175.00.

• Take profit at the next psychological round number: $180.50.
• Set a tight stop below the $173.50-$174.00 range to control risk if the breakout fails.

NVDA remains a leader in its group, with technical and sentiment confirmation on all fronts. Momentum traders should be aggressive but nimble.

Final Note: Continue to trail stops as the price moves higher. Watch for signs of exhaustion on expanding volume or sharp reversals intraday.

Decision: Buy (Long Position) at $175.00, aiming for a target of $180.50.