Exhaustive Technical Analysis for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) | 2025-07-29

1. Trend Analysis

• Long-term Trend: Since late March, NVDA shows a dramatic upward trajectory. The price surged from the $90–110 range in April, moving steadily higher to $175+ by July. This signals structural strength and a persistent bullish trend.
• Medium-term Trend: Peaks and troughs with higher highs and higher lows are visible throughout May, June, and July. Each corrective move has been followed by strong pivots upwards – classic of an uptrend with only shallow retracements.
• Short-term Trend: Price recently topped out at $179.38 (2025-07-29 09:00–10:00), pulled back to a $175–176 consolidation, and is now at $175.51. Short-term movement is somewhat range-bound after a sharp rally.

2. Volume Analysis

• March–June: Gradually increasing volume on green candles during upswings, confirming institutional participation.
• Late July: Despite higher prices, certain sharp upswings are accompanied by waning volume (e.g., today’s retracement from $179+ to $175). This can indicate exhaustion or a needed consolidation phase after a parabolic run.

3. Volatility and Momentum Assessment

• High Volatility: Intraday swings have increased: within the past 24 hours, the price ranged from $179.38 to $175.17. Large ranges usually precede near-term corrections or volatile consolidations.
• Momentum Indicators:
  • RSI (Estimated): With such a steep multi-week rise, RSI is likely above 70 on daily timeframe – in overbought territory.
  • MACD (Theoretical Assessment): Lines should be wide apart and above zero, reflecting strong momentum, but a potential bearish divergence is starting as price makes marginal higher highs with weaker volume.

4. Chart Pattern Recognition

• Rising Channel/Bull Flag: The price action from May through July forms rising channels interrupted by minor bull flags. Currently, after a strong push to new highs, NVDA appears to be forming another consolidation flag just below recent highs.
• Possible Double Top: The surge to $179 in the past 24 hours followed by a pullback to $175 could hint at a minor double top near-term structure, especially if the price fails to reclaim and hold above $178.

5. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Immediate Resistance: $179.36 (session high), then $180 (psychological round number).
• Immediate Support: $175 (session low and round psychological anchor), with additional strong historical support at $172.5 (previous resistance from 07/17-07/25, now support).

6. Fibonacci Retracement (Recent Swing)

• Swing Low: $170.70 (07/15)
• Swing High: $179.38 (07/29)
• 38.2%: $176.27
• 50%: $175.04
• 61.8%: $173.81

Current price $175.51 sits almost exactly at 50% retracement from the latest swing, a zone of frequent algorithmic buying during strong bull trends.

7. Moving Averages

• 50-Day EMA: Rising aggressively, likely near $155–$160, deeply below current price – trend is extended.
• 21-Day EMA: Estimated $170–$172, the last area of significant support.

8. Candlestick and Microstructure Analysis

• Recent hourly candles show long upper and lower wicks, portraying indecision/volatility. The sharp upper wick from $179.38 and fast dip to $175.17 speaks to profit-taking and near-term overextension.

9. Options Flow & Sentiment (Contextual Estimate)

• Momentum stocks like NVDA typically attract heavy call buying into new highs, possibly fueling squeezes but also amplifying reversals once profit-taking begins.

10. Statistical Mean Reversion

• Given the magnitude of the run-up (almost 90% gain from April low to July high), probability favors at least a short-term pullback or range, rather than immediate continuation. NVDA’s price is stretched above its moving averages, and cooling off is statistically probable.

11. Market Context/Catalysts

• No earnings or news-related spike is observed in today’s chart; price action appears purely technical and market-driven.

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Integrated Conclusion: What Next?

• Short-term: After peaking intraday at $179.38, immediate momentum has waned. With price now at $175.51 (at 50% local retracement), and short-term exhaustion signals present, odds favor continued consolidation or a tactical pullback to $172.5–$175 zone before another significant leg higher.
• Medium-term/Bullish: NVDA remains in a robust long-term uptrend. However, prudent entries matter; chasing after a sharp vertical rally can be risky.

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Actionable Plan

• Despite structural strength, the best risk/reward in the next 24 hours is to look for a tactical pullback. Once price enters $172.5–$175 demand, buyers are likely to step in for the next attempt toward highs.
• Short-term traders could exploit a further dip for a bounce, with stops below $172.5.
• Momentum shorts could target a brief retracement toward $172.5–$173.8 (Fib cluster/support) but must be quick, given the underlying trend.

Final Decision: Wait for a pullback and enter a Buy (Long Position) near $173.8–$175 for a probable bounce toward prior highs ($179–$180) in the next 24–48 hours, with a tight stop just below $172.5.

Decision Summary

• Buy Zone: $173.80–$175.00 (optimal is $174.00)
• Target Profit Area: $179.00 (prior high/resistance)
• Tight Stop: Below $172.5 (not shown)

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Trading Playbook

1. Entry: Buy near $174.00 (on further pullback completion)
2. Exit (Take Profit): $179.00
3. Timeframe: Within 24–48 hours, revisit if price structure or macro context materially changes

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Summary: NVDA is overextended but bullish. Don’t chase; wait for a tactical dip for fresh long entry as momentum cools down. Profit from the next bounce toward previous highs.