Detailed Multi-Strategy Technical Analysis for NVIDIA (NVDA)

Step 1: Market Structure and Price Action

• Current Price: $179.42 (as of 2025-08-06 21:00 UTC)
• Recent Trend: From mid-July, NVDA shifted from the $173–$174 range to breaking through $180, before retracing to current levels. The most recent week exhibits high volatility, with wild swings from $170.9 (Aug 1) up to $180.25 (Aug 5), and the latest intraday candle (Aug 6, 20:00) showing a huge range: $181.98 high, $172.56 low, closing at $179.43. This is a major sign of indecision after a parabolic extension.

Step 2: Volume and Volatility Profile

• Volume: Extremely heavy on breakout days (upwards of 174–221 million in late July), but noticeably lighter during pullbacks. Today’s session (Aug 6) also saw a major volume spike (>37M in the opening half-hour), suggesting institutional activity amid whipsaw moves.
• ATR (Average True Range): Just using recent daily lows/highs, ATR for last 5 sessions sits near $5. Enough for 2-3% moves in a day, consistent with recent realized volatility.

Step 3: Candlestick/Pricing Patterns

• Aug 5-6 Shows:
  • A strong bullish candle on Aug 4 ($175.16 open, $180 close), testing new highs.
  • Aug 5 opened near highs but quickly reversed after a doji, closing lower at $178.26.
  • Aug 6’s intraday bar is an extremely wide-range bar (172.56 to 181.98), closing at $179.43 – recapturing the key resistance area after a major dip. Such a bar is typically an exhaustion or reversal sign, suggesting the market tested for liquidity both directions and closed back at equilibrium.

Step 4: Moving Averages and Trends

• 20-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA): Estimated from past 20 closes, running close to $167–$172, so price is extremely extended above.
• 50-Day SMA: Estimated median from last 2 months, around $152–$160.
• Taken together: The price is significantly above even fast MAs, indicating a potential overbought/overextended scenario, unless NVDA is in a full-on parabolic phase.

Step 5: RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Momentum

• RSI calculation (Approximate):
  • From $153 (July 1 close) to $179.4 (current), up >17%. Prior to this, it moved from $173 to $180, then snapped down and up. This pace and magnitude of move often pushes daily RSI above 70, indicating overbought. The past 5–10 bars, with wild swings, could produce intraday RSI divergence as well.
• MACD: Given the trend, MACD is likely strongly positive, but with signal line flattening as price pulls back.

Step 6: Support and Resistance Mapping

• Key Resistance: $180–$182.50 (recent swing highs + today’s intraday high).
• Key Support: $175 (early August lows), $172.56 (today’s panic low), then major support at $170, $165, and deeper at $160–$164 (early July consolidation and old highs).

Step 7: Order Flow and Intraday Structure

• Intraday Data Aug 6:
  • Price chopped in $176–$179.5 range for hours before a sudden, rapid dip to $172.56 (in just one hour) and then a vertical rebound back to $179.43.
  • Strong buying interest defended the $172.50–$175 zone, but equally, sellers blocked upside at $181.9 (failed breakout).
• Order Flow Interpretation:
  • The flush down and violent rebound indicate stop-hunting/liquidity purge (classic before larger moves). The closing recapture near highs is a bullish sign for at least a short-term bounce, but high volatility increases odds of another swing down in the near future.

Step 8: Classic Chart Patterns

• Potential Bull Trap:
  • Today's failed breakout above $180, instantly reversed, and a wild dip suggests a bull trap at $180–$182. Combined with big volume, this is often a precursor for mean reversion.
• Emergent Range: $172.50 support, $180–182.50 resistance. Expected mean reversion toward the middle.

Step 9: Fib Retracement/Extensions

• Recent swing: July 26 low $172.96 → Aug 5 high $180.25
  • 38.2% retracement: $177.5
  • 50% retracement: $176.60
  • 61.8% retracement: $175.30
  • Today's price action tested all those levels and rebounded—another signal that $175–$177 is strong support in the short run.

Step 10: Market Sentiment, Gaps, & Fundamental Overlay

• No major earnings, impending splits, or news detected in this window (would need to check calendar).
• General AI hype remains positive, but extreme price extension over the last month raises odds of a short- to intermediate-term pullback or consolidation.

Step 11: Synthesis: Multi-Method Conclusion

• The technicals point to:
  • NVDA is in a mature uptrend, but has twice failed at $180–$182 in the last week.
  • Today's wide-range bar is a possible exhaustion move, trapping both longs and shorts, often seen before a short relief bounce, but more commonly before volatility ramps further.
  • The strong reaction off $172.56 suggests buyers are present, but repeated failures above $179–180 and heavy volume indicate distribution, not accumulation.
  • Volatility is now at maximum: likely to see another test of $172.5–$175 in the next 24 hours if $180 is not retaken early in the session.

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Step 12: Entry/Exit, Risk and Reward Recommendation

• Bias: Short/Mean Reversion (SELL), with a target at $173.80 (mid-range mean reversion) and $172.60 (full retrace of today's capitulation low if panic resumes).
• Entry: Short on a failed attempt to reclaim $180—optimal entry at $179.50, tight stop above $182.00 in case of another breakout.
• Take Profit: $173.80 to $172.60 (recent swing lows and 61.8% retracement), expecting oversold bounce near there.

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Executive Summary

• The balance of evidence: NVDA is extended, showing signs of distribution and volatility climax. Price will likely mean-revert over next 24 hours, testing recent supports. Odds favor a controlled pullback unless $182+ is forcefully reclaimed with volume, in which case the thesis fails. SELL opportunity present on any relief pop back into the $179.5–$180 range, targeting $173.80.

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Decision: SELL/Short. Open Price: $179.50
Target (Cover): $173.80
Alternative exit if selling overshoots: $172.60

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