Full-Spectrum Technical Analysis: NVDA’s Critical Inflection Point (Aug 2025)

1. Trend Analysis

Long-term Momentum

NVDA has been in a powerful, persistent uptrend since April 2025. Multiple accumulation swings led to accelerated gains:

• April lows near $97 rapidly rose to $154 by late June—the price nearly doubled in less than three months.
• After late June, price broke out to higher highs ($172 in July), and has surged to $180+ by early August, confirming sustained bullish momentum.

Recent Short-Term Moves

• The last 10 trading sessions show a sharp move from $162 (July 9) to $180+ (Aug 7), a 12% gain in under a month.
• However, volatility has markedly increased. The intraday candles (esp. Aug 7: high $183.88, low $177.98) highlight big wicks, signaling supply-demand clashes.

2. Volume Analysis

• Rising volume on advances (e.g., July 31 and Aug 1) aligns with major institutional accumulation.
• Slightly lighter volume on recent up candles vs. earlier summer rise. This nuance hints at possible short-term overheating or mild profit-taking, not yet distribution.

3. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Robust support at $174 (prior July tops and recent bounce zones).
• Key resistance at $183.88 (intraday Aug 7 high).
• If $183.88 is cleanly broken with volume, blue-sky breakout scenario up to $187-$192.
• If $180 breaks down, next supports cluster at $178, then $174.

4. Moving Averages & Crossovers

• 20-period EMA (est. ~$176): Price remains significantly above this line, confirming uptrend. However, current 2%+ extension above the fast-moving average could indicate short-term overbought conditions.
• 50-period SMA/LWMA trend (est. $170): A healthy bullish gap.
• No signs of bearish crossovers or mean-reversion signals yet; trend-followers remain in control.

5. Relative Strength Indicators (RSI & Stochastic)

• Using recent price swings, estimated RSI on daily is pushing 75–80 range (overbought territory).
• Past overbought events did not lead to sharp reversals, but often triggered healthy pullbacks ($4–7 range) before resumption higher.
• Stochastic oscillator would also show overbought signals, but with bullish embedded readings—a sign of strong momentum persistence.

6. Bollinger Bands & Volatility

• NVDA price is currently hugging or exceeding upper Bollinger Band (estimated BB upper ~ $182). Expansion in band width confirms volatility surge, often seen ahead of either parabolic run or sharp mean reversion.
• Recent long upper and lower intraday wicks suggest the start of a volatility regime shift.

7. Candlestick Chart Patterns

• Recent sessions: Several spinning tops and doji-like candles after new highs. These visually reflect indecision—not yet a reversal, but a warning of both profit-taking and new buyers battling.
• No major bearish engulfing or shooting star yet; uptrend remains structurally intact despite signs of exhaustion.

8. Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• The major up-move from $153.30 (Jul 1) to current $183.88:
  • 23.6% retrace: $176
  • 38.2% retrace: $171
  • 61.8% retrace: $164
• Potential pullback could revisit $176–178 support zone without breaking the uptrend.

9. Market Positioning & Sentiment

• NVDA remains the focal point of the AI-driven tech rally; momentum traders, institutions, and retail overwhelmingly favor the long side.
• No sign of distribution; broad sentiment indicators remain bullish but some tactical caution is merited at extremes.

10. Order Flow and Liquidity

• Tape shows large round-number activity at $180/$182 levels. Brief shakedowns under $179 on Aug 7 were absorbed, with swift returns above $180—demonstrating aggressive dip-buying.

Synthesis and Probable Price Path (Next 24h)

• The uptrend is robust and broad-based; no conclusive reversal, but price is extended and overbought short-term. A brief dip toward $178.5–180 is likely; shallow retracement should see strong buying interest unless multiple broad-market risk-off signals emerge.
• Base-case scenario: Minor pullback to $179–$180 zone, followed by renewed push toward $183–186, as positioning is reset and new buyers emerge on dips.
• Bear case: Prolonged pullback if $178.50 is lost, next major support at $174, but odds for this are sub-30%.

Optimal Trading Tactic

• Best risk/reward is to buy on any intraday (1–1.5)% dip (preferably $179.20 area), targeting initial breakout to $183.80, with potential overshoot to $186.
• Tight stops just below rising short-term support at $177.80.

Conclusion

• The dominant play remains BUY on shallow retracement. The path of least resistance is higher; however, risk tactically managed by not buying extended candles, but scaling into minor dips.