NVDA coiled beneath 183: Ascending triangle setup targeting 185 in the next session

Summary view

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish continuation with a breakout attempt above 183.0 toward 185.0–185.5; buy dips rather than chase.
• Thesis: Price is trending above key moving averages, pressing on a flat intraday ceiling (~183.0) with rising troughs – an ascending-triangle style setup. Momentum and breadth are supportive; volatility and pivots frame 185± as a reachable extension in the next session. A brief pullback to the daily pivot/VWAP zone (≈182.1–182.3) offers optimal entry.

Data hygiene note

• The 20:00 bar shows an anomalous spike (H 192.85, L 175.34) inconsistent with surrounding liquidity. I treat it as a bad tick/dark-pool print and exclude it from intraday pattern/indicator calculations.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Trend and structure

• Higher highs/higher lows since the 7/22 swing low (≈164.58). The sequence from 7/28 onward shows persistent stair-stepping: 173.7 → 176.8 → 179.3 → 180.8 → 182.7.
• Current session: multiple tests of 183.00–183.30 without decisive rejection; troughs have risen from ≈181.6 to ≈182.2 intraday. That’s classic ascending-triangle behavior, favoring an upside resolution if supply at 183 thins.

2. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~174.6 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 182.7 is ~4.6% above – bullish and not yet stretched to extremes.
• 8-day EMA (approx): ~179.0–179.5; 21-day EMA (proxied by 20SMA) ~174.6. EMA8 > EMA21 and price > EMA8: short-term momentum trend intact.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~159–161; 200-day SMA (approx): ~138–142. Strongly positive slope and wide separation confirm primary uptrend.

3. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily (approx): low 60s (≈61–63). Above 50 and below classic overbought (>70), supportive of trend continuation with room for a push.
• MACD daily: line above signal with a modest positive histogram; momentum building but not yet parabolic.
• Stoch RSI (qualitative): upper mid-range, consistent with a push higher after shallow consolidations.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): 3.8–4.5. Typical one-session excursion supports a 2–4 point realized range; a 2–3 point upside from 182.7 to 185.0 is feasible in one session.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~174.6; estimated σ ≈ 4.5; Upper ≈ 183.6, Lower ≈ 165.6. Current price is hovering under the upper band. A clean break/close above ~183.6 would signal an expansion leg toward 185–186.

5. Intraday microstructure (8/8)

• Opening drive held above 182 with repeated probes of 183.00–183.30; pullbacks were shallow (to ~182.0–182.2) and promptly bought.
• VWAP (anchored from cash open): approximates ~182.4–182.6 mid-session; late-day price held slightly above – mild buyer control.
• Liquidity map: visible supply at 183.00–183.30; absorption evident (no steep rejections). This increases the odds of a stop run through 183 for a fast expansion to ~184–185.

6. Classical levels (Pivot analysis using 8/8 H/L/C: 183.30/180.40/182.70)

• Pivot (P): 182.13 – ideal buy-the-dip zone.
• R1: 183.87; R2: 185.03; R3: 186.77.
• S1: 180.97; S2: 179.23; S3: 178.07. Interpretation: The market is coiling just under R1. A move through R1 typically targets R2 (~185.0), aligning with ATR and Bollinger projections.

7. Fibonacci mapping (from 7/22 low 167.03 to current swing high ~183.30)

• 38.2%: ~177.45; 61.8%: ~172.88. Shallow pullbacks have stayed above 38.2% – trend strength signal.
• 1.272 extension: ~185.75; 1.618: ~189.66. The 1.272 sits just beyond R2, a reasonable 1–2 day stretch target; within 24h, tagging ~185 is realistic.

8. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Price well above a rising Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun; Lagging span above price. Bullish configuration; Kijun near mid-170s offers dynamic support.

9. ADX/Trend strength (approx)

• ADX(14) in low/mid-20s with +DI above -DI: confirms a healthy, sustainable trend (not a blow-off).

10. Volume/OBV

• Volume has normalized vs. late-July spikes; no distribution signature. OBV trend is up/sloping lightly – accumulation over time, consistent with dips being bought.

11. Candles/patterns

• Recent candles: small real bodies near resistance, upper wicks not aggressive; follow-through buyers appear on each dip. No bearish engulfing or evening star patterns present.

12. Risk scenarios and invalidation

• Bearish fade: Rejection from 183.3 and loss of 182.0 opens a quick test of S1 180.97; deeper liquidity pocket sits 179.2–179.5 (S2/20D-2σ region). Probability near-term: 25–30%.
• Base case: Break and hold above 183.0 triggers a push to 183.9 (R1) then 185.0 (R2), with intraday dips finding buyers at 182.1–182.4. Probability: ~55–60%.
• Stretch bull: Strong momentum day through 185.0 into 185.7–186.3 (near BB upper expansion and Fib 1.272). Probability: ~15%.

13. Strategy synthesis

• Confluence long: Uptrend across timeframes, price above EMA8/21 and VWAP, ascending triangle under resistance, Pivot=182.13 aligns with optimal dip-buy zone, R2 ≈ 185 is a natural 24h target.
• R/R planning: Entry 182.1–182.3, stop ~180.2 (below S1 and intraday base), target 185.0–185.5. Risk ≈ 1.9–2.1; Reward ≈ 2.7–3.4 → R/R ≈ 1.4–1.7.

24-hour price path forecast

• Expected path: Early dip toward 182.1–182.3 (fills buyers), then clearance of 183.0 with momentum into 183.9–185.0. End-of-day consolidation likely 183.5–185.0 if breakout holds. Alternative: failed breakout leads to 181.0–181.2 retest; deeper only if 180.9 fails.

Decision

• Bias: Buy (long) on a pullback to the pivot/VWAP zone; take profit into 185 area within the next session. Avoid chasing above 183.3 if not already in; wait for either the dip or a confirmed intraday retest/hold above 183.0.

Execution notes

• Optimal entry: 182.15 (near daily pivot and prior intraday support).
• Profit-taking: 185.05 (near R2 and just under Fib 1.272 for higher fill probability). If momentum is exceptional, scale a runner to 185.6–186.0, but primary TP sits at 185.05.
• Invalidation (not part of the order schema but crucial): Close below 180.9 on a 30–60m basis weakens the setup; 180.2 stop preserves capital.