NVDA coiling under 184: Buy the dip near 181 for a breakout run toward 185–186 within 24 hours

Overview and market structure

• Instrument: NVIDIA (NVDA), USD. Current price: 182.06
• Regime: Clear medium-term uptrend since mid-June with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price is trading above the 20/50/200-day moving averages, confirming trend alignment to the upside.
• Today’s session (UTC): Open ~182.16, High 183.84, Low 180.25, Close 182.06; a small-bodied candle with both upper and lower wicks (indecision/spinning-top character) after testing both S1 (~180.26) and R1 (~183.85) derived from the daily pivot. Price closed near the daily pivot (~182.05), suggesting balance into the close.
• Data quality note: The 20:00 candle shows an anomalous print to 170.55. Given the surrounding tape and lack of continuation, this appears to be a bad tick/outlier and is excluded from risk level computations.

Trend, moving averages, and slope analysis

• 20-day SMA: ~175.5 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is +6.5 above the 20SMA, indicating strong short-term trend.
• 50-day SMA: ~158–160 (approx., given May–July price path). Price is well above the 50SMA; slope is positive.
• 200-day SMA: materially lower (~120–130 region post-split), slope positive; wide separation signals a mature uptrend.
• Short-term EMAs (approx):
  • 5-EMA ~181.7, 10-EMA ~179.5. Price is above both; 5 > 10 > 20, a bullish stack.
• Takeaway: Trend-following models (SMA/EMA cross, price-MA alignment) support bullish continuation. Any dips toward 181–180 are likely to find buyers on first test while the 20SMA at ~175.5 remains the stronger trend support.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Estimated low-to-mid 60s (≈62–65). This is bullish but not extremely overbought; room for continuation before classical overbought (>70) signals trigger.
• Stochastic (fast): High (≈80–90) with a slight flattening, consistent with consolidation just below resistance. A renewed upswing above 184 would likely reaccelerate it; a brief dip to 181 could reset it without breaking trend.
• MACD (12,26,9): Positive line above signal and zero; histogram has been narrowing modestly as price stalled under 184, indicative of consolidation rather than a trend reversal. A breakout would likely expand the histogram again.
• Money Flow Index (MFI): Likely 55–65 region; accumulation bias consistent with rising OBV and pullback buying.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14): ~3.2–3.6. Implies a typical 1-day move of roughly ±3.5. From 182, an ATR-based expected range is about 178.5–185.5.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2):
  • Middle band ≈ 20SMA ~175.5
  • Upper band ≈ ~181.5–182
  • Lower band ≈ ~169–170 Price is riding at/just above the upper band. In strong trends, upper-band rides can persist; however, mid-band mean reversion attempts are common after extended touches. Given nearby resistance, a minor pullback toward 181 (upper-band vicinity/VWAP zone) is plausible before continuation.

Volume, participation, and tape

• Daily volume: Eased from July peaks into August, typical of a consolidation under resistance. No distribution-level spikes; profiles remain constructive. The last few sessions have had healthy bids on dips.
• OBV: Rising since late July, confirming price trend.
• Today’s intraday VWAP (approx): ~182.6–183.0 (weighted early session strength). Close at 182.06 is slightly below VWAP, consistent with late-day balancing. Tomorrow a reclaim of VWAP on open would be a constructive tell.

Support and resistance map (confluence-driven)

• Immediate resistance: 183.8–184.0 (multiple tests: Aug 7, Aug 11 intraday high 183.84). A clean break and hold above 184 opens 185.6 (R2) then 186.0 and 187.2.
• Psychological and round levels: 180, 185.
• Near supports:
  • 182.0–182.1 (today’s pivot close zone)
  • 181.2–181.6 (pullback buy zone; prior intraday balance and near 5-EMA)
  • 180.25–180.3 (today’s S1 and Fib 23.6% area)
  • 178.3–179.5 (Aug 5–6 closes, micro-range base)
  • 175.5 (20SMA and 50% retrace of the July 22–Aug 7 swing)

Classical pivot points (based on today’s H/L/C: 183.84/180.25/182.06)

• Pivot (P): (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 182.05
• R1: 2P − L ≈ 183.85 (tagged today)
• S1: 2P − H ≈ 180.26 (tagged today)
• R2: P + (H − L) ≈ 185.64
• S2: P − (H − L) ≈ 178.46 These map well to the ATR band and provide precise levels: support near 180.25; upside magnet at 185.6 on a confirmed breakout.

Fibonacci structure (swing analysis)

• Measured swing: Jul 22 low 167.03 to Aug 7 high 183.88 (Δ = 16.85)
  • 23.6%: 180.3 (tested/held)
  • 38.2%: 177.8 (next deeper support)
  • 50%: 175.45 (near 20SMA)
• Extensions from 167.03 swing low:
  • 127.2%: ~188.5
  • 161.8%: ~194.2 Within 24 hours, the 185.6–186 zone is the first realistic objective; 188.5 becomes a subsequent swing target on sustained breakout this week.

Ichimoku framework (approx, daily)

• Price well above cloud; Senkou Span A > Span B with forward cloud rising—bullish regime.
• Tenkan (9-period midpoint): ~177–178; Kijun (26-period midpoint): ~167–168. Price > Tenkan > Kijun: bullish, but also shows short-term extension above Tenkan, supportive of a small dip buy.
• Chikou span above price and cloud, confirming trend.

Wyckoff lens and pattern context

• The 180–184 box over the last few sessions resembles a re-accumulation range beneath resistance (cause-building). Spring attempts pushed to ~180.25 and were bought. Multiple tests near 183.8 without supply expansion suggest absorption. A Sign of Strength (SoS) should present on a decisive push through 184 with rising volume.

Candlestick and microstructure

• Today’s candle: Small body with wicks both sides (indecision) right at the pivot; typical of a pause under resistance. No bearish reversal signature (e.g., no long upper shadow rejection candle); rather a balanced close.
• Intraday: Early strength, midday balance, late drift to pivot; aligns with energy coiling for next day’s move.

Mean-reversion vs. breakout frameworks

• Breakout case: Above 183.9–184.0 with uptick in volume, targets 185.6 (R2) then 186.0–186.5. Probability elevated given trend alignment and repeated resistance tests.
• Pullback buy case: First-hour dip toward 181.2–181.6 (VWAP/5EMA zone) offers favorable R:R for an advance to 184–185.6. Failure only if price sustains below 180.25 (S1/Fib 23.6%).

Risk management levels and invalidation

• Primary invalidation for the intraday long idea: sustained trade below 180.0–180.3 (close below S1 and below the 23.6% Fib), which would open a path to 178.5 (S2) and 177.8 (38.2% Fib). Broader trend invalidation only develops on daily closes below 175.5 (20SMA/50% retrace).

24-hour price path projection

• Base case (60%): Early dip toward 181.2–181.6, then rotation back above 182 pivot, breakout above 183.9–184 in the US morning/late morning push. Range 180.9–185.8; settle 184.5–185.6.
• Alt bullish (25%): Gap-and-go above 183.7, shallow pullback to 183.0–183.2, swift tag of 185.6; extension possible to 186.2 on strong tape.
• Bearish risk (15%): Failure to reclaim VWAP on open; break and hold below 180.25 leads to 178.5 test before buyers reassert near 178–179.

Confluence summary (what matters most)

• Trend: Strong and intact across multiple timeframes.
• Location: Price is coiled just under well-defined resistance at 183.8–184 with supportive higher lows (~180.3).
• Levels: Daily pivot math provides clean targets—R2 at 185.6 is the natural magnet upon breakout.
• Momentum: Constructively bullish without extreme overbought on RSI; MACD positive, OBV rising.
• Volatility: ATR suggests the 185–186 zone is reachable in one session; downside cushion at 180.25.

Trade plan and execution detail

• Bias: Buy the dip or buy the breakout, with preference to buy-the-dip for superior R:R given proximity to support and intraday pivot.
• Optimal entry (limit): 181.30 (in the 181.2–181.6 demand pocket, near 5EMA/VWAP re-test). This seeks to capture liquidity on a routine early session pullback.
• Alternative entry (stop): 184.05 breakout trigger if dip does not occur; the plan remains bullish but with a slightly wider momentum-style stop.
• Take-profit target (24h): 185.60 (aligns with classical R2 and ATR envelope). Scale near 185.0 if tape stalls; otherwise aim full at 185.6.
• Protective stop (context, not part of the requested output): 179.90 (below S1/Fib 23.6%), yielding approx R:R ≈ (185.6−181.3)/(181.3−179.9) ≈ 4.3/1.4 ≈ 3.1x.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance remains up. The 180.25–181.60 shelf is well-bid; repeated taps of 183.8–184 suggest imminent breakout. Within the next 24 hours, a move toward 185.6 is the highest-probability outcome, provided 180.25 holds on a closing basis.

Note: This analysis is educational and informational. Markets carry risk. Use position sizing and stops appropriate to your risk tolerance.