NVDA Coils Near Fresh Highs: Buy the Dip at the Pivot for a Push Into 185–187

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias for next 24h: Moderately bullish. Expect a grind higher with buy-the-dip behavior; likely range 180.2–187.4 with a test of 185.3 (R1) and a decent probability of 186–187 prints if broader market tone is stable.
• Optimal tactic: Buy pullbacks near the daily pivot and rising short-term MAs rather than chase; target the 185–187 supply zone. Invalidation on sustained trade under 180.2 (S1) or a close back inside yesterday’s lower third.

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Higher highs and higher lows since the 7/22 swing low at 167.03. Price just printed a new multi-month high at 184.48 and closed strong at 183.16, near the top of the day’s range after an intraday shakeout.
• Short-term channel: Support rising through ~178–180, resistance ~186–187. Break above 184.5 opens 185.3 (R1) then 187.4 (R2) and potentially 190.3 (R3 extension) if momentum accelerates.

Trend and moving averages

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 176.1 (calculated from last 20 closes). Price is ~4.0% above the 20SMA; healthy uptrend with modest extension, not extreme.
• 50‑day SMA ≈ 161.0 (calculated from last 50 closes). Strongly rising; wide separation confirms medium-term uptrend.
• 10‑day momentum base: Rough 10D mean ~179.8–180.5; price respects pullbacks toward 180 as buyers step in.
• Conclusion: Clear bull trend across short and intermediate timeframes; dips to 180–182 expected to attract demand.

Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 67 (derived from last 14 changes). Bullish, not yet overbought; room to extend before >70.
• MACD (12,26,9): Positive and above signal; histogram modestly positive, consistent with trend continuation. Minor risk of flattening if price stalls beneath 184.5–185.3, but no sell trigger yet.
• Stochastic (14,3,3): High (≈80–90) but not signaling a decisive bear cross; supports buy-the-dip rather than chase-if-extended.
• DMI/ADX: ADX estimated high‑20s; trend strength is real but not exhausted.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) ≈ 4.0–4.5. Implies a typical one-day travel of ~2.2%–2.5%.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid ≈ 176.1; Upper ≈ 184.8–185.1; Lower ≈ 167.1. Close just under/near the upper band: bullish with possible continuation; not an outright squeeze/expansion blowoff.
• Keltner Channels (20EMA, 2×ATR): Upper boundary near ~184; price flirting with/just under it—classic trend channel ride.

Volume, VWAP, and intraday structure

• 8/12 intraday: Open 182.96, quick sell to 180.93, reclaim and steady build to 184.48; late-hour wick showed a transient 176.57 print but regular-session low in d-series is 179.46, suggesting the 176.6 was a thin/after-hours or outlier print. Final prints around 182.9–183.2 show VWAP reclaim and end-of-day strength.
• Intraday read: Buyers defended the 181–182 band multiple times and pushed closes near highs—bullish for next session’s open.

Candle/price action

• 8/12 daily candle: Long lower shadow, close near highs—bullish hammer-ish reaction off ~180–181 confluence. This often precedes continuation when aligned with an established uptrend.

Support/resistance map (confluence from swing, MAs, pivots)

• Supports: 182.4–182.0 (daily pivot/VWAP zone), 180.3 (S1 / 23.6% Fib), 179.3 (7/30 close), 178.3 (8/5 close), 176.7 (7/28 close). Deeper: 173.7–175.8 (38.2–50% retrace and prior base).
• Resistances: 184.5 (8/12 high), 185.27 (R1), 186.5–187.4 (supply and R2), stretch 190.3 (R3) if momentum surges.

Fibonacci mapping (swing 7/22 low 167.03 to 8/12 high 184.48; Δ=17.45)

• 23.6%: 180.36 (tagged intraday; shallow pullback—bullish).
• 38.2%: 177.82; 50%: 175.75; 61.8%: 173.68.
• Holding above 23.6% keeps impulse intact; loss of 180.3 risks a deeper test toward 178.

Pivot levels for next session (Classic, using H=184.48, L=179.46, C=183.16)

• Pivot P = 182.37
• R1 = 185.27, R2 = 187.39, R3 = 190.29
• S1 = 180.25, S2 = 177.35, S3 = 175.23
• Tactics: Prefer long near P/S1 with targets at R1/R2.

Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price well above a rising Kijun and an elevated cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; bullish stack. Lagging span likely above price and cloud—trend continuation bias.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From 167.0, an impulsive sequence advanced through ~179 (wave 3), pulled back to ~173.7 (wave 4), and is pushing a wave 5 extension toward 185–188. After a minor push, a brief consolidation could follow; however, the immediate path of least resistance remains up.

Risk matrix and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Dip toward 182.0–182.5 (pivot area) is bought; push to 185.3 (R1), partial fade; settle 184–186.
• Bull case (25%): Strong open >183.5, clean break 184.5; momentum squeezes to 186.5–187.4 (R2), possibly tagging 188. Risk of late-day profit-taking.
• Bear case (20%): Early weakness loses 182.0, tests 180.3 (S1). If S1 fails on volume, path to 178 (S2/38.2% Fib) opens. This would start a time-correction, not necessarily trend change unless 176–175 snaps.

Why Buy, not Sell

• Trend alignment (price > 10/20/50DMA), shallow pullbacks (23.6% Fib respected), bullish candle and VWAP reclaim, RSI <70 (runway left), and nearby/defined invalidation at 180.2 argue for a long bias.
• Shorting into a strong uptrend with improving closes carries negative expectancy unless a clear reversal trigger appears (e.g., breakdown below 180.2 with momentum). That trigger is absent.

Trade plan (24h swing/intraday)

• Entry: Limit buy near 182.35 (just under Pivot P=182.37), where demand repeatedly emerged and risk is quantifiable.
• Target: 186.90 (below R2=187.39 to increase fill probability on a momentum push; also beneath upper supply band 186.5–187.4).
• Invalidation (stop for risk control – informational): Below 180.20 (S1). That gives ~2.15 risk vs ~4.55 reward (R≈2.1:1). If aggressive, scale-in 181.0–182.4 with the same invalidation.
• Contingency: If price breaks and holds above 184.60 before filling the dip, breakout add-on could be considered; however, the single “open price” specified here prioritizes the higher‑probability pullback fill.

Key confirmations to watch at open

• Early holding of 182.0–182.5 with rising 5–15m VWAP.
• Breadth/semis strength (SOX/NASDAQ risk-on). Weakness there suggests patience at S1.
• Rejection wicks at 184.5; a clean 30–60m hold above 184.6 increases odds of the 186–187 run.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance is up. Favor a buy-the-dip at the pivot with a target into the 186–187 zone over the next session barring a breakdown below 180.2.