NVDA coiling beneath 184: Buy the dip near 180.5 for a push toward 185

NVDA — full-spectrum, step-by-step technical read, next 24h bias and trade plan

1. Market snapshot and context

• Instrument: NVIDIA (NVDA) US equity
• Timestamp: 2025-08-13 close/late session; last print 181.59
• Recent regime: Persistent daily uptrend from the 7/22 swing low (167.03) to the 8/12 swing high (184.48), followed by a two-day digestion. Intraday 8/13 showed a wide after-hours wick (190.84 high to 174.41 low) on a single hourly bar — likely an illiquid or outlier print; I treat it as a liquidity probe rather than a reliable reference, but it reveals stop clusters above ~185 and below ~176.

2. Trend structure and moving averages

• Price action: Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 8/1 (low 173.72), with rising pullback floors: 178.26 → 179.42 → 180.77 → 182–183 area tested.
• Short-term SMAs (approx): • 5-day SMA ≈ 182.06 (price 181.59 slightly below; very mild short-term mean-reversion room) • 10-day SMA ≈ 179.96 (bullish: price > 10-D) • 20-day SMA ≈ 176.65 (bullish: price > 20-D) • 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ 160–165 (firmly below; strong medium-term uptrend)
• Alignment: 5D > 10D > 20D > 50D overall positive. A close back above the 5D (≈182.1) would typically reassert immediate momentum.

3. Price structure, support/resistance, and pattern read

• Major resistance: 183.3–184.5 cluster (8/7–8/12 highs). Above it: thin air toward 186.5–188.0; and the outlier AH tick highlights latent liquidity near 190–191.
• Major support: 180.0–180.5 (23.6% Fib; high-volume node; intraday VWAP magnet), then 178.8–179.4 (recent hourly basing), then 176.6–178.0 (20-D SMA and 38.2% Fib) and 173.7 (8/1 low).
• Pattern: Ascending triangle on the daily (rising swing lows pressing against a flat-ish 183–184 ceiling). Typical implication: eventual upside break if the series of higher lows persists; false breaks possible intra-day.

4. Fibonacci mapping (swing 167.03 → 184.48)

• Range = 17.45
• 23.6% = 184.48 − 4.12 ≈ 180.36 (near-term buy-the-dip area)
• 38.2% = 184.48 − 6.66 ≈ 177.82 (deeper pullback confluence with 20-D)
• 61.8% = 184.48 − 10.79 ≈ 173.69 (coincides with 8/1 pivot low)
• Current price 181.6 sits just above the 23.6% retrace; first bounce zone is 180.2–180.6.

5. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): mid-to-high 60s; not overbought, supportive of trend continuation; slight loss of momentum past two sessions.
• Stochastic (daily): likely drifting from overbought toward neutral; constructive if it resets without violating price structure.
• MACD (12,26,9): Positive spread above zero; histogram likely contracting the last two days, signaling consolidation rather than trend break. A push/close over ~183.5 should expand histogram again.
• DMI/ADX: DI+ > DI− with a rising or steady ADX in the low/mid 20s typical of a maturing trend; short-term pauses are normal. Upside break would likely lift ADX.
• CCI: Near +100 recently; light cooling on consolidation; remains positive trend bias.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.) ≈ 2.8–3.2. Implies a 1-ATR 24h expected move around ±3 from 181.6 → 178.5–184.6 baseline.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle ≈ 176.7; Upper likely ~184.5–185; Lower ~168–169. Price hugging the upper half of the band — classic trend behavior. A tag/close over the upper band tends to invite momentum follow-through; a tag-and-fail near 184.5 often backfills to ~180–181.
• Keltner Channels (20,2×ATR): Price near upper KC; not an extreme squeeze, but controlled trend. No blow-off read.

7. Volume, VWAPs, and money flow

• Volume: Rising into highs, then tapering on consolidation — constructive digestion.
• OBV: Up-sloping overall since 7/22; minor plateau this week as price consolidates.
• Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Likely mildly positive; accumulation on dips has occurred near 178–181.
• Session VWAP 8/13: Approx in the 181.0 area; close 181.59 slightly above → intraday buyers maintained control into the bell.
• Anchored VWAPs: • From 8/1 low (173.72): est. aVWAP ~178.5–179.0; price above — swing-long cohort in profit. • From 7/22 low (167.03): aVWAP lower still; strong positional support below.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price > Tenkan (≈ 180–181) > Kijun (≈ 173–175); Cloud below and rising; Lagging span above price. This is a classic bullish stack; Tenkan ~180.8–181.2 is the first dynamic support.

9. Regression channel and structure risk

• A linear regression (lookback ~30–35 sessions) points up; price currently on the upper half of the channel. Mean reversion toward ~180–181 is typical before another leg higher; losing the midline (~179) risks a test of 177.8.

10. Market profile/volume-by-price (from visible range)

• High-volume nodes: 179–181 (acceptance), 173–175 (prior acceptance). Low-volume pocket: 184.5–186.5, which can accelerate on a clean breakout but conversely reject if volume is thin.

11. Candles and microstructure

• Daily candles 8/7–8/12: successive tests of ~183–184 with upper wicks, but no heavy rejection sell-off.
• 8/13 intraday: Opening weakness down toward 180.0 was bought; late-day prints drifted higher; AH anomalous spike likely liquidity print rather than true auction shift.

12. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• From 7/22 low, a 5-wave impulsive advance count is plausible with wave 3 peaking near 184.5 and current action a shallow wave 4 flat/triangle. If correct, wave 5 attempt toward 186.5–188 could unfold upon a daily close >184.6. Invalidation for this micro-count below ~177.8 (38.2% retrace) on a closing basis.

13. Corroborating indicators and confluence

• Confluence buy zone: 180.2–180.6 (23.6% Fib, Tenkan/VWAP vicinity, prior intraday demand).
• Confluence breakout zone: 184.5–184.8 (upper BB, horizontal resistance cluster). Above that, momentum pockets to 186.5–188.0; secondary extension ~190 if volume spikes (echoed by the AH wick).

14. Scenario planning for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55–60%): Early dip into 180.2–180.8 gets supported; then a push toward 183.2–184.2. If tape/volume is healthy, a probe over 184.5 with tailwind can tag 185.0–186.0 before settling 183.5–185. Bias: slightly bullish, buy-the-dip preferred.
• Alt scenario (25–30%): Fail to reclaim/hold 181.0 on early trade → rotational drift to 179.2–179.6; deeper but controlled pullback to 177.8–178.4 (38.2% Fib/20-D confluence) before buyers reassert.
• Bear surprise (10–15%): High-volume breakdown through 177.5 daily close opens 175.0 then 173.7. Requires a catalyst; not base case.

15. Risk management notes

• Favor entries near 180.5 with stops below 179.2 (below intraday structure) or more swing-oriented below 177.6 (under 38.2% + 20-D). RR toward 184.6–186.0 remains attractive.
• If instead chasing strength, a breakout add above 184.6 with a tight fail-stop back inside 183.8 can be layered, but the primary plan is a dip-buy.

Conclusion and 24h prediction

• Bias: Modestly bullish continuation within an ascending triangle, with an expected 24h range of roughly 180.0–185.0 and odds favoring a retest of 183.3–184.5. Dip into 180.2–180.6 is a buy; breakout over 184.5 unlocks 185.5–186.5. I choose Buy (Long) with an optimal limit near 180.50 and a take-profit in front of the resistance shelf at 184.80.