NVDA coiling beneath 184: ascending-triangle setup points to a 24h breakout test

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish. NVDA is coiling just under a well-defined resistance band (183–184.5) with rising higher-lows and firm momentum. Odds favor a continuation probe into/through 184.5 if the broader tape stays calm.
• Optimal trade idea: Buy a minor pullback near 181.5–181.7 or a momentum breakout through 183.2. Take profit into 184.5–185.0. Risk controls should sit below 179.3 (pivot S1 / rising trendline).

1. Trend and structure

• Primary trend (daily): Strong uptrend from April lows (~100) to current ~182, with a persistent sequence of higher highs/higher lows since the July 22 pivot (167.03). Price sits above short- and medium-term moving averages.
• Pattern: Ascending triangle forming since late July. Flat(ish) horizontal supply at 183–184.5 and rising demand from 173.7 → 176.8 → 179–180. Classical pattern leans bullish; measured move on a clean break projects +6–7 points (toward ~189–191 over multiple sessions), though 24h likely realizes only a fraction.
• Market structure (intraday 8/14): Early push to 183.02 faded, then balanced around 181.6–182.1. Buyers defended 181.4–181.6 repeatedly. Notable anomalous print at 20:00 showing 193.34 high likely a data spike or illiquid after-hours print; not actionable.

2. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 177.1 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is above and the slope is positive – supportive of near-term upside.
• 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ 160–162 based on May–Aug trajectory. Price is well above; medium-term trend is healthy.
• Short EMAs: 9/21 EMAs (qualitative) are below spot but rising; 9>21>50 structure is typically constructive. No bearish crossovers present.
• Takeaway: MA stack confirms trend; pullbacks toward 180–178 should attract dip buyers while above 20-SMA.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 60 (computed). Neutral-bullish, not overbought. Room to push higher before hitting classic 70+ overbought.
• MACD (qualitative): Positive but flattening from consolidation under resistance; histogram near flat to slightly negative on and off—consistent with coiling rather than reversal.
• Stochastics: Upper-middle band (~60–75) – aligns with RSI: momentum intact, no exhaustion.
• DeMark/Exhaustion (qualitative): No clear 9/13 exhaustion pattern at daily scale; consolidation reduces risk of immediate downside reversal.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~ 177.1; estimated upper band ~ 183.1–183.5; lower ~ 170.7–171.1. Price oscillates near upper band without persistent closes outside—typical of controlled uptrends. A daily close >183.5 would be a momentum confirmation.
• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~3.3–3.8. Implies a typical 1-day range of roughly ±1.8–2.0% around spot. Using 182 as center: an expected band ~179.8 to ~184.2; tails could reach ~178.8 or ~185.2 on stronger tape.

5. Support, resistance, and pivots

• Resistance: 183.0–183.2 (intraday cap), 183.9–184.5 (R1 cluster and recent swing highs: 8/7–8/12 highs near 183–184.5). A break and hold above ~184.0–184.5 opens 185.5–186.3 next.
• Supports: 181.4–181.6 (intraday defended), 179.7–180.1 (multiple touches; near 9–10 day Tenkan), 177.8 (38.2% Fib of 167.0→184.5), 173.7 (61.8% Fib and July/Aug value area low).
• Classical pivots (based on 8/13 H/L/C 183.97/179.35/181.59):
  • Pivot P ≈ 181.64 (price hovering around it intraday)
  • R1 ≈ 183.93, R2 ≈ 186.26
  • S1 ≈ 179.31, S2 ≈ 177.02
• Volume shelves: Heavy recent turnover between 181–182 suggests a short-term point of control near ~181.6–181.9; acceptance above POC often precedes tests of overhead supply.

6. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing 7/22 low 167.03 → 8/12 high 184.48 (range 17.45):
  • 38.2% ≈ 177.81 (first pullback line, held thus far)
  • 50% ≈ 175.76
  • 61.8% ≈ 173.69
• Ascending triangle height ~ 184.5 − 177.8 ≈ 6.7 → breakout target ~ 191.2 (multi-session). Near-term 24h realization more modest: 184.6–186.3.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximations from recent extremes)

• Tenkan (9-period mid-point) ≈ (HH 184.5 + LL 174.5)/2 ≈ 179.5
• Kijun (26-period mid-point) ≈ (HH ~184.5 + LL ~167.0)/2 ≈ 175.8
• Price > Tenkan > Kijun; cloud likely below price. Bullish configuration with support at ~179.5/175.8.

8. Price action and candles

• Recent sessions show small real bodies near the top of the range (doji/Spinning-top like) – indecision under resistance, not distribution. Lack of large upper-shadows today suggests sellers are not aggressive away from 183.
• 7/31’s swift selloff to 177.9 was absorbed and reversed within a few sessions—buy-the-dip behavior remains visible.

9. Intraday microstructure and VWAP context (8/14)

• Intraday ranges mostly 181.0–182.7 after the morning attempt to 183.0. Dips below 181.5 were quickly reclaimed.
• Estimated intraday VWAP clusters 181.7–181.9. Trading above that zone typically leads to tests of the session high later in the day; below it risks a retest of 181.0 then 180.3–179.7.

10. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Bullish breakout (≈40–45%): Early reclaim >182.6, push through 183.2 trigger; momentum carries to 184.2–184.6. If volume expands, a probe to 185.3–186.0 possible.
• Balanced drift (≈35–40%): Range between 181.0 and 183.0; repeated tests of 182.5–183.0 without decisive break. End near 182–183.
• Bearish fade (≈15–25%): Loss of 181.4 opens 180.1 then 179.3 (S1). Only a daily close <179.3 would threaten the uptrend toward 177.8 (38.2% Fib).

11. Risk management and execution

• Long entries:
  • Pullback buy: 181.5–181.7 (near P/VPOC and intraday demand). Best risk/reward if defended.
  • Breakout buy-stop: 183.2–183.3 (through intraday supply), accepting some slippage for confirmation.
• Stop reference (not part of schema, but recommended): 179.2–179.4 (below S1 and trendline). Tighter tactical stop: 180.3 if entering on breakout and tape is firm.
• Profit-taking: Scale 184.2–184.6 first target; stretch 185.5–186.3 on forceful tape.

12. Confluence checklist

• Trend: Up (20/50 SMA aligned).
• Momentum: Positive, not stretched (RSI ~60; MACD constructive).
• Structure: Ascending triangle under 183–184.5.
• Volatility: ATR supports a 2–3 point move; room to 184.5 within 1 ATR.
• Pivots/Fib: R1 ~183.9 aligns with prior highs; 38.2% Fib ~177.8 as downside guardrail.
• Volume: Pullback on lighter volume; dips bought; balanced profile near 181.6–182.
• Net: Bullish edge with tight invalidation.

Forecast and plan

• Expect a test of 183.0–183.9 within the next session. If 183.9/184.5 breaks with volume, upside extension to ~185.5–186.0 is feasible. Base case end-of-day zone: 182.3–184.6.
• Trade: Buy. Optimal open on a minor dip near 181.6. Target 184.6 in 24h. If using a confirmation-style approach, a buy-stop ~183.25 targeting 185.5 with a tighter stop works as an alternative.

Note: The 20:00 anomalous 193.34 high is likely an outlier print; do not anchor targets to that tick.