NVDA’s Hammer Off Support: Positioning for a Push Back Into 182–184

Note: This is market commentary for educational purposes, not investment advice.

Overview and timeframes used

• Instrument: NVDA (USD)
• Current price: 180.45 (daily close 2025-08-15). Last intraday print ~180.21.
• Timeframes analyzed: Daily (primary), hourly (session-level microstructure), multi-week trend (context).
• Data window: April 2025 to Aug 15, 2025.

1. Price action and structure

• Trend (multi-week): Clear series of higher highs/lows from mid-May (~135) to August (~184). Pullbacks have been bought near rising supports.
• Recent structure (late July to mid-Aug): Higher lows: 167.0 (7/22) → 170.8 → 173.7 → 176.8 → 178.0 (today). Horizontal resistance shelf 182.7–184.5 creating an ascending triangle character.
• Today’s candle (8/15): Small real body with a long lower tail (low 178.04, close 180.45) after selling pressure early; classic hammer-like recovery into the close, signaling demand near 178.
• Hourly intraday: Heavy volume on the opening hour selloff (13:30Z) to ~179.9, stabilization through mid-session, reclaim of 180+ into the close. A 20:00Z bar shows a print down to 171.70 but closed 180.21; given the context/close, that looks like an outlier/bad tick or brief liquidity vacuum; the market immediately re-centered near 180.

2. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance: 182.0 (prior close), 182.7 (8/8), 183.9 (8/7), 184.5 (8/12 high). Above 184.5 opens room to 186.8–189.9 (Fibonacci extensions).
• Support: 180.0 (VWAP zone/round), 179.8 (Fib 23.6% from the 7/22–8/12 swing), 178.0 (today’s defended low), 176.9 (Fib 38.2%), 175.9 (8/5 low), 173.7 (8/1 close), 171.4 (7/21 close).
• Volume nodes (intraday): 179.5–180.3 accumulated significant shares today; expect dip-buyers here.

3. Moving averages (trend filter)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 177.5 (approximate calculation from last 20 daily closes). Price is above the 20-SMA and retested from above today.
• 50-day SMA ≈ 161–165 (approximate), rising; price sits well above it, confirming medium-term uptrend.
• 200-day SMA (proxy) ≈ 140–150 range; price far above, confirming primary uptrend.
• Alignment: Price > 20SMA > 50SMA > 200SMA = classic bullish stack.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (explicit calc from 7/29–8/15 closes): ~57.6. Neutral-bullish; headroom before overbought. Not diverging bearishly.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Mid-to-high range (approx 55–65) consistent with consolidation within an uptrend; no sell trigger.
• MACD (12,26,9, qualitative): Positive but flattening over the past week as price digested 180–184. Histogram likely contracted toward zero and began ticking up with today’s intraday reversal—a setup for a bullish re-acceleration if 182+ breaks.
• ADX (qualitative): Trend strength moderate (mid-20s). DI+ > DI-; pullbacks have not flipped control to sellers.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (from recent ranges): ≈ 4.54. Expect typical 1-day move ~±2.5% from close.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) using 20SMA ~177.5 and recent stdev: Upper ~182.5–183, lower ~172–173. Price closed just below/near upper band after rejecting lower intraday prices—bullish but not stretched.
• Squeeze/Expansion: Bands are moderately expanded after prior run-up; not a tight squeeze, but no blow-off either.

6. VWAP and intraday posture

• Session VWAP (est.) hovered around ~180.0. Price reclaimed and closed above VWAP—intraday buyers finished in control. Expect first test of VWAP/180 to be supported if retested.

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Price above cloud; Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ (H9+L9)/2 ≈ (184.48+173.72)/2 ≈ 179.1.
• Kijun (26-period mid) ≈ (H26+L26)/2 ≈ (184.48+164.58)/2 ≈ 174.5.
• Current close (180.45) > Tenkan (179.1) > Kijun (174.5); bullish. Pullbacks into Tenkan (~179–179.5) often buyable in trend.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing 7/22 low 164.58 → 8/12 high 184.48)

• Retracements from the high: 23.6% = 179.78 (today’s bounce zone), 38.2% = 176.88, 50% = 174.53, 61.8% = 172.18.
• Extensions from 8/12 high: 127.2% ≈ 189.9, 161.8% ≈ 196.1—longer-term targets upon a decisive 184.5 breakout. For the next 24 hours, the 184.0–184.5 area is the key pivot.

9. Candlestick and pattern analysis

• Daily hammer/long lower wick off 178 at rising 20SMA/23.6% Fib support = constructive.
• Ascending triangle characteristics: higher lows press into a flat-ish resistance zone. A clean move/close > 184.5 would likely invite trend continuation.
• No distribution top signs (no series of lower highs or heavy-volume upthrust failures). Today’s high-volume defense argues accumulation into weakness.

10. Volume analytics

• Daily volume 150M (elevated vs prior few sessions) with a recovery close—accumulation footprint.
• OBV (qualitative) trending higher since July; dips have not produced meaningful OBV drawdowns.

11. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Shallow dip open toward 179.6–180.1 (Tenkan/VWAP zone) finds buyers, then grind higher to re-test 182.0–183.5. Intraday fade likely near 183.5–184.0 unless there’s a catalyst.
• Bull case (25%): Early strength pushes through 182.7; sustained bids drive a test of 183.9–184.5. A 30–60 min hold above 184.5 could accelerate toward 185.5–186.0.
• Bear case (15%): Breaks 179.5 on volume, tests 178.0. A firm close below 178 opens 176.9 (38.2% Fib) where dip-buyers likely defend.

12. Risk/reward and trade location

• With ATR ≈ 4.5, a buy near 179.8 targets 183.5–184.0 within a normal day’s range, offering ~3.7–4.2 upside vs. ~2.0 downside to 177.8–178.0 support—favorable short-term R:R.
• If price gaps above 182.5 and holds, a momentum buy-stop strategy would target 183.9–184.5; however, the optimal location remains a buy-the-dip into 179.5–180.0 given today’s footprint and Tenkan/VWAP confluence.

13. What would invalidate

• A decisive break/close below 178.0 with rising volume would argue a deeper mean reversion toward 176.9/175.9. MACD turning down and RSI losing 50 would weaken the long setup.

Conclusion and 24-hour outlook

• The broader uptrend is intact. Momentum is neutral-bullish, today’s candle is constructive, and confluences (20SMA, Tenkan, 23.6% Fib, VWAP) cluster near 179.5–180.0. Expect a modest upward drift with tests of 182–183.5, with an outside shot at 184 if liquidity is supportive. The optimal tactical plan is a buy-on-dip just below 180 to capture a retest of the 183–184 resistance shelf.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Action: Buy (Long).
• Entry (limit): 179.80 (near Tenkan/VWAP/Fib confluence).
• Profit target (next 24h): 183.80 (just under resistance to increase fill probability). Optional stretch target on strength: 184.40.
• Risk management (not required but prudent): Consider a stop ~177.80–178.00 (below defended low), yielding ~1:1.4–1:2 R:R to the main target.