NVDA at the Kijun/Fib 50% Crossroads: Set Up for a Reflexive Bounce to 178–179

Note: Educational analysis only, not financial advice. Markets are risky; use your own judgment, sizing, and risk controls.

Symbol: NVDA | Last: $175.64 (2025-08-19 close)

1. Market structure and multi-timeframe context

• Primary trend (3–6 months): Uptrend remains intact. NVDA advanced from ~$100 in April to a ~$184 peak in August. Price is well above the rising 50/200-day MAs (long-term bull regime).
• Intermediate term (4–6 weeks): Sideways-to-up channel since mid-July, with repeated rejections near 183–184 and support forming 175–176 and 172–173. Today’s decisive break below the 178–180 balance suggests a short-term momentum shift lower within the larger uptrend.
• Short term (1–3 days): Sharp distribution day (-3.5% on elevated volume). However, price closed into a Fibonacci/Ichimoku confluence (174.5–176), which often produces a reflex bounce before the trend decides next leg.

2. Price action and levels

• Key resistances: 178.3–179.1 (prior intraday balance/POC), 180.3 (R1 pivot), 182.0–183.2 (supply shelf), 184.5 (swing high).
• Key supports: 175.5–175.9 (today’s low zone/July 31 pivot), 174.5 (Fib 50% + Ichimoku Kijun), 173.2 (S1 pivot), 172.4 (Jul 24 gap top), 170.8 (Jul 23 close – gap fill), 167.0 (Jul 22 low).
• Candlestick: Wide-range bearish candle, close near lows (bearish Marubozu-type). Often followed by an intraday bounce attempt then a re-test of lows. A strong close back above ~178.5 would negate immediate downside pressure.
• Intraday tapes: Hourlies show persistent offer from the open (182.4) down to 175.6 with modest bounces. The reported 20:00 bar low ~163.76 looks like an outlier/print; daily low was 175.49, which I use for analysis.

3. Volume/participation (VPA)

• Today’s volume ~183M vs recent daily average ~150–170M: broad participation in the selloff (distribution). That said, heavy sell volume into a multi-support cluster often precedes a mechanical bounce as short-term traders cover.
• OBV: Likely rolled over today; confirms short-term pressure, not a long-term trend break.

4. Momentum and mean reversion

• RSI(14) daily: Roughly mid-40s to low-50s after today’s drop (not deeply oversold, but down from the 60s). Room for a reflex bounce; not yet capitulation.
• RSI(2): Likely sub-10 (short-term oversold). Historically, NVDA tends to mean-revert within 1–2 sessions from such levels.
• Stochastic: %K near/below 20 on daily—supportive of a bounce attempt.
• MACD (12/26/9): Bullish regime rolling over; histogram likely crossed toward negative today. Short-term momentum bearish, which argues for selling strength unless price reclaims 178.5–180.

5. Moving averages and trend filters

• 5/10-day EMAs: Price closed below both—near-term momentum negative.
• 20-day SMA: Approx 175–177; price is sitting in this zone (neutral), often a battleground for bounce/fail.
• 50-day SMA: Rising, likely mid- to high-160s; well below price, preserving the bigger uptrend.

6. Volatility framework

• ATR(14): Approx 3.0–3.6. A typical next-day range of ~±3–4 around the open is plausible. Today’s ~7-point span was an outlier; volatility likely remains elevated for 24–48 hours.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~20-SMA near 176; upper ~182–183; lower ~169–170. Price is near the mid-band after a sharp excursion—room exists both to the upper band (on bounce) and to the lower band (on break of 174.5).

7. Fibonacci confluence (short-term swing)

• Swing: 7/22 low 164.58 to 8/12 high 184.48.
• 38.2%: 176.88; 50%: 174.53; 61.8%: 172.18.
• Today’s close 175.64 sits between the 38.2% and 50%; the 50% level (174.53) aligns with Ichimoku Kijun—powerful support cluster 174.5–175.5.

8. Ichimoku check

• Tenkan (9): ~181.3; Kijun (26): ~174.5 (26-day mid of 164.6–184.5).
• Price below Tenkan but near Kijun: classic “mean-revert to base line or bounce from base line” zone. If 174.5 holds, a snap toward 178–179 (Senkou A ~178.7 estimate) is likely; a sustained break below 174.5 opens 172.2 then 170.8.

9. Classical pivots (using 8/19 H=182.50, L=175.49, C=175.64)

• Pivot P: 177.88
• R1: 180.26; R2: 184.89
• S1: 173.25; S2: 170.87 These align with the Fib/Ichimoku levels, strengthening the 173–175 support and 178–180 resistance map.

10. Market profile / VWAP intuition

• Recent value concentrated 178–180. Below value today suggests potential for a “return to value” bounce toward 178–179 if 174.5–175.5 holds. Failure there likely pushes price to discover lower value at 172–171.

11. Options and positioning (qualitative)

• 180/175 strikes likely heavy in open interest. A break and pin around 175 into the next session can flip dealer gamma negative, increasing intraday swings. Expect choppy whipsaws around 175–177 with fast squeezes on any buy programs.

12. Candlestick/Pattern diagnostics

• Breakdown from a 7-session 180–183 balance; initial measured move equals height of range (~3) below 180, which targets ~177; overshoot today to 175–176 suggests potential exhaustion near first measured objective.
• Open gap from 7/24 (170.78–172.44) remains unfilled—a magnet if 174.5 fails.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours; subjective probabilities)

• Base case (45%): Early probe into 174.5–175.2 holds; mean-reversion bounce toward 178.0–179.0; fade late to 177–178.
• Bear case (30%): Brief bounce stalls under 178; sellers press through 174.5, accelerating to 172.2–173.3 (Fib 61.8/S1) with attempts to fill the 170.8 gap if momentum intensifies.
• Bull case (25%): Strong squeeze from open, recapture 178.5–180.3 (R1). If sustained above 180.3, a run toward 182–183 is possible, but odds lower without a clear catalyst.

14. Trade thesis (24-hour horizon)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip into the 174.5–175.2 confluence (Fib 50% + Kijun + 20-SMA band + prior pivot lows), targeting a reflex back to prior value 178–179. Risk is defined: a decisive break below 174.5 invalidates the bounce and targets 172–171.
• Risk/Reward: Entry ~174.9; stop ~173.4 (below S1/Fib 61.8 trigger zone); target ~178.9. Reward ~4.0 vs risk ~1.5 => R:R ≈ 2.7.

15. What would change my mind

• Bearish: Early failure at 175 with heavy sell volume, or accelerating tape through 174.5 that can’t reclaim quickly—abort longs; next supports 173.2/172.2/170.8.
• Bullish extension: Reclaim and hold above 180.3 (R1) on strong breadth—then favor higher targets 182.0–183.2; adjust take-profit if momentum is exceptional.

16. Execution notes

• Use a buy-limit near 174.9 to avoid chasing; slippage likely given volatility. If price gaps up >177.5, consider waiting for a pullback to 176.8–177.2 (pivot P- zone) before engaging.
• Consider partials: scale 50% near 178.0, remaining into 178.9–179.2. Trail to breakeven after first scale.

Bottom line

• The larger trend remains up, but near-term momentum flipped down. We are into a high-probability bounce zone (Fib 50%/Kijun/20SMA cluster 174.5–175.5). Expect a reflex toward 178–179 within 24 hours if 174.5 holds. A break of 174.5 negates the bounce and opens 172–171.