NVDA: Hammer Reversal off a Panic Low—Setting Up a 1-Day Mean-Reversion Pop Toward 178–180

Executive summary

• Timeframe: Next 24 hours (through the next US cash session and early after-hours)
• Context: NVDA closed at 175.40 after a volatile flush to 168.80 and a strong recovery above session VWAP. The daily candle resembles a hammer following a two-day selloff, suggesting short-term exhaustion of sellers within a medium-term uptrend.
• Bias: Tactical bullish (buy-the-dip/mean-reversion) with resistance-limited upside into 178–180.

1. Price action and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Medium-term uptrend from April ($100) to early August highs ($184). Recent action is a corrective pullback within that uptrend. Consecutive down days into Aug 19–20 broke the 180 shelf, testing deeper supports.
• Today’s session (hourly): Capitulation open to 170.31, extension to 168.80, then steady recovery to 175.40. Value migrated higher through the day; close above intraday VWAP indicates buyer control late-session.
• Key levels from market structure:
  • Immediate resistance: 176.0–176.5 (intraday supply), 177.7–178.5 (daily 20SMA/38.2% retrace cluster), 179.9–180.5 (R2/gap window), 182–183 (major supply and recent highs)
  • Supports: 173.3–174.2 (intraday acceptance/POC area), 171.0 (S1 pivot), 168.8 (today’s low), 167.0 (July swing low)

2. Moving averages (trend and mean-reversion cues)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~178.7. Price closed below, signaling short-term weakness but positioning for a mean-reversion bounce back toward the mid-band.
• 50-day SMA (rising): Price remains comfortably above, consistent with a corrective pullback in an uptrend.
• Short EMAs (8/21-day): Likely curling down and above spot price, creating near-term overhead resistance around 177–179. Expect initial rejection attempts near those bands before any squeeze.
• Takeaway: Setup favors a tactical bounce into the 20DMA zone; not yet a clean trend re-acceleration.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): Low-50s after today’s rebound (mid-40s intraday), consistent with balanced but improving momentum. No overbought risk near-term.
• MACD daily: Histogram has been contracting after turning negative; momentum downtrend appears to be losing steam. A positive inflection is plausible if price holds >174–175 and presses into 178–179.
• Stochastics: Likely emerging from oversold territory; a cross-up would support a 1–2 day bounce.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~4.5. Expect a 1-day realized range of ~4–5 points. From 175.4, this implies reach to 179–180 on the upside or 171–172 on the downside is feasible in 24 hours.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near 178.7; lower band near ~171. Price pierced the lower band (168.8) and closed back inside—a classic mean-reversion signal. Typical follow-through is a drift toward the mid-band over the next session.

5. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Volume: Very high today (~213M) with a long lower tail—indicative of capitulation/absorption. Yesterday was also heavy, suggesting a two-day flush with signs of exhaustion.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Close reclaimed and held above VWAP into the final hours—bullish for next-session carry.
• Market profile/value: Value area likely 171.7–174.8 with POC around 173–174 based on hourlies. Closing above VAH shifts the auction upward; next acceptance zone is the prior 176–178 shelf, then 179–180.

6. Support/Resistance confluence and pivots

• Classic pivots (using H=175.53, L=168.80, C=175.40):
  • Pivot P = 173.24
  • R1 = 177.68, R2 = 179.97, S1 = 170.95, S2 = 166.51
• Confluences:
  • 177.5–178.0: R1/prefresh supply/near 20DMA/38.2% Fib cluster
  • ~180: R2 + gap window + round number + call gamma area
  • 173–174: Pivot/POC re-test zone
  • 171: S1 and lower-band neighborhood

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing Jul 22 low to Aug 7–12 high)

• Swing: 167.03 → 183.88 (Δ=16.85)
  • 38.2%: 177.44
  • 50%: 175.46 (today’s close ~at the 50% line)
  • 61.8%: 173.47
• Interpretation: Closing on the 50% retracement after undercutting and rejecting the 61.8–100% zone intraday is constructive for a reflex bounce toward 38.2% (~177.4) and potentially to the 23.6% (~180.9) if momentum improves.

8. Candlesticks and patterns

• Daily hammer-like candle (small body near top, long lower shadow) following a strong down day—bullish reversal candidate if confirmed by a higher high/higher close next session.
• Intraday: Morning panic low followed by higher highs/lows and a close near the intraday highs—classic reversal day structure.

9. Ichimoku (directional bias, approximated)

• Price below Tenkan and near/below Kijun; both are likely flat-to-down. A push above ~176–177 would retake the Kijun area and set up a test of the cloud/lagging supply near 179–181. For the next 24h, a Tenkan/Kijun reclaim attempt aligns with the bounce thesis.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• A-B-C corrective structure off the Aug highs appears plausible: A (to 167 on Jul 22), B (retest highs into Aug 12), C (into Aug 19–20). With today’s undercut and reversal, C may be completing, supporting the notion of a 1–3 day reflex rally.

11. Gap and supply analysis

• Break below the 180 shelf created an overhead gap/supply zone from ~179 to ~181. First test up typically meets sellers, but a forceful approach can fill toward 180. Expect initial resistance to be sticky in 178–180.

12. Options and gamma (qualitative)

• Round-number pinning at 175 is common in NVDA during selloff stabilization. Call walls sit near 180; a push into 178–180 could encounter dealer hedging that moderates upside unless flows intensify. This supports a tactical target shy of 180.

13. Risk context and catalysts

• No specific catalyst implied by the data in the next 24h. As always, headline sensitivity is high for NVDA; overnight gaps are common. The after-hours spike to ~182 that was immediately faded suggests latent supply above 178–180 remains active.

14. Scenario setup for the next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Mild dip/sideways open toward 174.5–175.0, then push into 177.5–178.5 (R1/38.2%/20DMA area). Potential extension to 179.5–180 (R2/gap window) if momentum accelerates in the afternoon. Likely settles 176.5–178.0.
• Bear case (25%): Early push stalls below 176.0–176.5 and fades to 173.5–174.0 (POC). Lose 173 and the door opens to 171.0 (S1). Only a decisive break <170.9 would threaten a retest of 168.8.
• Bull squeeze (15%): Quick reclaim of 177.7, straight-line auction through the thin 176–178 zone to 179.5–180.5. If 180 holds on a 30–60 min basis, a squeeze toward 181–182 can occur, but probability is lower given overhead supply and recent fade.

15. Trade plan and execution

• Edge: Mean-reversion long back toward the 20DMA/mid-Bollinger following a lower-band tag and hammer reversal, with strong confluence at R1/38.2% Fib.
• Entry: Prefer a limit buy on a modest pullback toward 174.9 (above P and near value re-tests). If market gaps up past 177, consider waiting for a VWAP pullback rather than chasing.
• Take-profit: Scale into 177.6–178.2; stretch target 179.6 (near R2/gap window). For a single-print take-profit, 179.6 optimizes reward vs probability in the next 24h.
• Risk control (not part of the output fields but critical): A stop below 172.2 (beneath S1/61.8% Fib) keeps the hammer invalidation clear and preserves R:R ~1.7–2.0 to the 179.6 TP.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence (hammer reversal, VWAP reclaim, lower-BB re-entry, 50% Fib close, strong absorption) supports a tactical long with expectation of a bounce into 177.5–179.6 over the next 24 hours. Overhead supply near 180 is significant; we aim to exit before that wall.