NVDA: Sell the Rip—R1 Rejection Likely to Bleed Into the 61.8% Fib Zone

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish to range-bound, with a preferred sell-the-rip setup. Expecting a relief pop toward 176.2–176.8 followed by sellers reasserting into 173.3–174.0.
• Key levels: 176.65 (R1 pivot), 176.9 (intraday high), 178.3 (R2 pivot / near 20-SMA underside), 175.23 (pivot), 174.2–173.8 (session shelf), 173.3 (61.8% Fib zone / S1-S2 cluster), 172.1 (S2 pivot).

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend: Long-term uptrend intact (price well above an estimated rising 50/200-day MAs), but short-term pullback has developed since 8/12. We’ve now logged a sharp two-day drawdown (8/19–8/20), followed by a stabilization day (8/21) closing at 174.98.
• Short-term structure: Lower highs since 8/12 (183.16 → 182.02 → 182.01 → 175.64/175.40/174.98). On today’s intraday tape (hourly), a series of lower highs (176.99 → ~175.64 → ~175.13) against fairly flat support around 174.0–174.2 resembles a descending triangle; measured move risk projects ≈1.8–2.0 points below the base (173.2 target area).
• Range context: Current session traded 176.9 high to 173.81 low; closing near the lower half shows sellers controlled the day after the opening push.

2. Moving averages (SMA/EMA/Ribbon)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~178.7. Price closed below, indicating near-term softness. This SMA aligns with the 38.2% Fib and acts as near-term resistance; rallies into 178–179 likely fade on first test.
• 50-day SMA (approx): mid/upper-160s (based on June/July closes in the 140s/150s rising into 170s), still well below price; intermediate trend remains positive.
• 200-day SMA (approx): likely in the mid-130s given the April–May regime; long-term bull trend intact.
• Implication: With price below the 20-SMA but above the 50/200, the dominant setup is “sell the underside of the 20-day” until reclaimed.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (approx): Low-to-mid 50s when computed including the early-August burst; however, the last three sessions show clear downside momentum. Net: neutral-to-weak; room for a further fade toward 40–45 without being oversold.
• Stochastics: Intraday shows weak bounces failing near mid-band; daily likely pointing down from elevated levels, consistent with continued near-term pressure.
• CCI: Likely hovering near 0 or slightly negative; no deep oversold; favors continuation over an immediate V-shaped reversal.
• Read: Momentum modestly bearish short-term; no oversold capitulation yet.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD has rolled over after early-August strength; histogram likely negative/sloping down. Price below 12/26 EMAs suggests rallies are supply-driven for now. A zero-line test is possible if weakness persists.

5. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~4.0–4.5. Next session expected range: about 172.5–177.8 around current levels. That supports a tactical plan to fade a pop toward resistance or play a break of shelf support.
• Intraday volatility: Tightened in the final hours, suggesting potential energy for a morning push that can be sold.

6. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channel

• BB(20,2): Mid-band ≈ 178.7; lower band likely ~172.5–173.0 given recent vol. Price is in the lower third but not tagging the lower band yet; that leaves room for a drift lower into 173s before a more meaningful bounce. A touch of the lower band near 173 would align with the 61.8% Fib.
• BB vs Keltner: Bands likely re-expanding after the drop; any temporary compression intraday would favor a continuation move in the direction of the prevailing short-term downtrend when it resolves.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing examined: 7/22 low 167.03 to 8/12 high 183.16 (range 16.13).
  • 38.2%: ~177.0 (just below the 20-SMA) → overhead friction.
  • 50%: ~175.10 → price is straddling this midpoint.
  • 61.8%: ~173.21 → key magnet below; confluence with descending triangle measured move.
• Read: Price sitting at the 50% retracement often “decides” direction. Failure to reclaim 176.5–177 would likely see a test of 173.2.

8. Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Volume: 8/19 and 8/20 were elevated on down moves (distribution). 8/21 cooled but remained firm. This shows selling pressure is present but not accelerating.
• OBV/CMF (qualitative): Likely turned down with the recent distribution; no evidence yet of sustained accumulation at 175.
• Read: Sellers are active on strength; buyers defend 174–175 but with weakening conviction.

9. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (8/21) sat modestly above last prints early in the day, with price spending much of the afternoon below → weak intraday breadth.
• Anchored VWAP from the 8/19 downswing likely sits ~177–178 and should act as resistance on first test.

10. Pivot levels (Classic, from 8/21 H/L/C = 176.9/173.81/174.98)

• Pivot P ≈ 175.23
• R1 ≈ 176.65; R2 ≈ 178.32
• S1 ≈ 173.56; S2 ≈ 172.14
• Read: Ideal short entry is near R1 rejection; near-term targets align with S1/S2 and the 61.8% Fib.

11. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Tenkan (9) likely above current price; Kijun (26) near current value in mid-174s to mid-175s. Price below Tenkan and flirting with Kijun suggests corrective phase with risk of a Kijun test/breach toward the 61.8% Fib (173.2). Cloud likely below and rising, consistent with longer-term bullish regime but offering limited immediate support if Kijun fails.

12. ADX and trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX likely rising from low levels as the pullback matures, confirming a short-term trend (down) within a higher timeframe uptrend. That supports short entries on rallies.

13. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending triangle on intraday timeframes with a flat base at ~174.0–174.2 and a sequence of lower highs. Measured move targets 173.0–173.3 if the base breaks.
• No bullish reversal pattern yet (no hammer, engulfing, or strong divergence evident). Today looked like a spinning-top/doji-like stabilization day, not a reversal.

14. Relative strength context

• After leading through early August, NVDA underperformed over the last 2–3 sessions. The 20-SMA loss while the 50-SMA remains well below points to rotational digestion. In this micro-window, relative strength is soft and rallies are for sale until the 20-SMA is decisively reclaimed.

15. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early bounce to 176.2–176.8 on open/first hour, vendors step in near R1/AVWAP-under, fade to 173.3–174.0 into the afternoon. Close near 174.
• Downside extension (25%): Weak open, swift break of 174 shelf, tag 173.2 (Fib 61.8%) and possibly probe 172.1 (S2) on a momentum flush before late-day stabilization.
• Upside surprise (15%): Strong risk-on tape lifts price through 176.9, squeeze to 178.3–179.0 (R2 and 20-SMA underside). Expect sellers to defend the first test; trend only flips if the day closes above ~179 with volume.

16. Trade construction logic

• Thesis: Short-term momentum down, price below 20-SMA, rallies failing at lower highs, and multiple resistances stack between 176.6–178.3. Confluence entry: R1 ≈ 176.65, intraday supply 176.5–176.9, and anchored VWAP overhang ~177–178. Targeting the 61.8% Fib/S1 cluster (173.3–173.6) offers favorable R:R.
• Optimal entry: Short into a push toward 176.4–176.7 with signs of stalling (e.g., 5–15 min rejection wicks, delta flip negative). If no pop, a momentum add/alternate is a break/backtest below 174.6, targeting 173.3.

17. Risk notes

• Friday options expiration proximity can “pin” around 175, but pins often break late morning. A rejection near 176.6 with a roll under session VWAP would validate the short. Upside invalidation if price accepts above ~178.3 (20-SMA underside/R2) and holds there.

Conclusion

• Prefer Sell the rip. Use a limit to get positioned near resistance, aiming for the 173.3–173.6 magnet. Expect range 172.5–177.8, with end-of-day near 174 if base case unfolds.