NVDA: Bullish Outside Day Sets Up a Push Toward 180–183 Into the Next Session

Instrument: NVIDIA (NVDA) | Currency: $ | Current price: 177.99 (last close ~178.00). Time context: 2025-08-22 21:00 UTC. Horizon: next 24 hours (into the next trading session).

1. Market structure and trend across timeframes

• Primary trend (3–4 months): Uptrend intact. From late April (~106) to early/mid-August highs (~184.48), NVDA made a series of higher highs and higher lows. Pullbacks have been bought near rising medium-term MAs.
• Intermediate trend (last 4–6 weeks): Uptrend with a recent corrective phase. Price peaked 8/12 at ~184.48, then retraced to the 175–176 area 8/19–8/21, followed by a strong rebound today to ~178.
• Short-term structure (last 1–2 weeks): Lower highs into 8/21, then a bullish outside day on 8/22 that reclaimed key levels. Today’s session opened lower (~172.65), swept liquidity down to ~171.20, then rallied to close above the prior day’s high (~176.90), which is a bullish range engulfment.

2. Key levels (support/resistance, gaps, liquidity)

• Major resistance: 179.8–180.7 (round number + session spike + daily pivot R1 confluence), 182.5–183.3 (prior distribution and daily pivot R2), 184–184.5 (swing high zone and supply shelf).
• Major support: 177.2–177.5 (today’s VWAP area, mid-session value), 176.3 (first-hour close), 175.5 (61.8% retrace confluence), 173.8 (8/21 low), 171.2 (today’s intraday sweep), 168.8 (8/20 spike low).
• Notable 8/22 wick: A wide 20:00 UTC bar printed a low ~169.25 but closed near 178. That looks like a stop/illiquidity sweep; closing strength reduces bear follow-through odds.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA: ~178.98 (estimate). Price closed fractionally below/near it and reclaimed it intraday, favoring mean reversion higher if held on next open.
• 50-day SMA: Rising and well below price (mid-160s estimate), confirming the broader uptrend. 200-day SMA materially lower (long-term uptrend intact).
• Short-term MAs (5/10): Likely flattening/turning up after today’s bullish session. A near-term bullish re-cross over the 20-day is feasible with modest follow-through.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: ~57 (estimate). Rebounded from the mid-40s area earlier this week. This is constructive—neither overbought nor oversold, giving room to run toward 60–65 if resistance breaks.
• Stochastics: Likely crossed up from neutral/oversold after the three-day pullback; supports a 1–3 day upswing.
• CCI/MFI (conceptual): Both would have risen sharply today on strong buying off lows; MFI confirms volume-backed demand.

5. MACD and trend momentum

• MACD daily: Histogram likely inflecting toward zero after contracting on the early-week pullback. A bullish crossover is plausible if price pushes through 179–181 early next session.
• Directional Movement (ADX/DMI): ADX moderate, DI+ likely attempting to cross back over DI−; supports a bounce within an ongoing uptrend.

6. Volatility, bands, and channel context

• ATR(14) daily: ~3.5–4.0 (estimate). Expect 3–4 point intraday swings; up to ~6–8 points during spikes.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline near ~179; lower band ~172; upper ~185 (estimates). Price moved from near/below the lower band earlier this week back toward the midline—typical mean-reversion behavior that often continues toward the upper band if resistance gives way.
• Keltner Channels: Range expansion early week, then contraction; today suggests a volatility reset, with potential for a BB-KC re-expansion higher on a push above ~180–181.

7. Ichimoku lens (approximate)

• Tenkan-sen (9): ~176.6 (mid of recent 9H/9L). Price > Tenkan—bullish short-term momentum.
• Kijun-sen (26): ~176–177 (estimate). Price is attempting to stay above/near Kijun; holding above would be constructive.
• Cloud: Given the long-term uptrend, price is likely above the daily cloud; Chikou span remains well above price from 26 days ago. Net: bullish bias if 175–176 base holds.

8. VWAP and anchored VWAPs

• Session VWAP 8/22: Roughly 177.3–177.8 by volume distribution. Last trade ~178 sits marginally above—bullishly skewed into the close.
• AVWAP from 8/12 swing high (~184.48): Likely ~179.8–180.2 given subsequent heavy trading below that peak. This creates a strong overhead pivot; a clean reclaim and hold above ~180 would invite momentum buyers.
• AVWAP from 8/19 selloff: Estimate in the high 177s/low 178s; price oscillating around it—winning side next session likely dictates direction.

9. Fibonacci mapping and confluences

• 7/22 low (164.58) → 8/12 high (184.48): • 38.2% = ~176.88 (reclaimed today). 50% = ~174.53. 61.8% = ~172.18. • Today’s low 171.20 briefly pierced 61.8% then reversed—classic bear trap behavior.
• 8/01 low (170.89) → 8/12 high (184.48): 61.8% ~175.52, matching 8/19 close area—strong support confluence.
• Upside Fibonacci extension (near-term): A break/hold over 180.7 projects to 183.2–184.5 (R2 + prior high zone), then 186.5–187.5 if momentum accelerates.

10. Candlestick and price action

• 8/22 daily candle: Bullish outside day vs 8/21 (close above prior high), long lower shadow—hammer-like. This often leads to 1–3 days of upside follow-through, especially when paired with mean reversion to the 20-day SMA.
• Intraday structure: Powerful first hour lift (59M+ shares) off the lows, followed by balanced consolidation 176.9–178.6, then a late-session liquidity sweep with a resilient close near the highs of the balance—bullish sign of absorption.

11. Volume and breadth

• Elevated opening volume and persistent demand near 177–178. OBV (conceptually) turning up; accumulation on dips evident today.
• Volume profile: A thick node around 176–178; acceptance above that node typically targets the next high-volume node near 180–182.

12. Pivots for the next session (based on 8/22 OHLC: H 178.59, L 171.20, C 177.99)

• Pivot P ≈ 175.93.
• R1 ≈ 180.65; R2 ≈ 183.32; R3 ≈ 188.04.
• S1 ≈ 173.26; S2 ≈ 168.54; S3 ≈ 165.87. Confluence: R1 sits just above the round 180 and near the AVWAP from 8/12—key decision level. R2 is nearly the 183.2 fib extension/target.

13. Pattern and system cross-checks

• Donchian Channels (20): Range top ~184.5; a break above 180–181 would be an early signal toward retesting the channel high.
• Parabolic SAR: Likely flipped/close to flipping to bullish after today’s session.
• Linear regression channel (short window): Price pivoted from the lower boundary and is reverting to the regression mean—room to the upper bound if 180–181 breaks.
• Mean reversion signal: Price moved from stretched below the 20D back to its vicinity; typical path is overshoot to the opposite side IF resistance yields.

14. Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (bullish continuation, 60%): Early test of 179.5–180.7. If buyers hold above 180 on 30–60 min basis, momentum likely carries to 182.5–183.3 (pivot R2/prior supply). A tail probe toward 184 is possible if volume expands and macro tapes benign.
• Range case (neutral, 25%): Chop between 176.5 and 179.8 as the market digests Friday’s move and pins near 178–180. This still favors a gradual upward bias as long as 176.3–177.0 holds.
• Bear shakeout (15%): Failure at 179.8–180.7 leads to a pullback to 176.3–177.0; loss of 175.5 opens 173.8 and potentially 172.2. Only a daily close below ~173 would materially dent the bullish setup.

15. Risk management and trade construction

• Long thesis: Bullish engulfing/Outside day + reclaim of 38.2% Fib + proximity to 20D SMA + improving RSI/MACD + strong intraday demand around VWAP.
• Invalidations: Sustained trade back below 175.5 (61.8% confluence) weakens the long. A daily close <173.3 (S1) flips momentum back to sellers toward 172.2/168.5.
• Proposed execution: Use a buy limit near 177.5 (pullback into VWAP/value) with contingency to add/confirm on a 30–60 min close above 180.2 if continuation is preferred.
• Stop (risk guide): 173.2 (below S1 and below 61.8% confluence/8/21 low cluster) to avoid noise. This implies risk of ~4.3 vs reward to 183.2 of ~5.7 (R:R ≈ 1.3:1) on a single-target plan; dynamic scaling at 180.65 (R1) can improve expectancy.

16. Bottom line decision

• Bias: Bullish for the next 24 hours with expectations of a test of 179.8–180.7 and potential follow-through to 182.5–183.3. Dips into 177–177.5 are buyable while 175.5 holds.

Actionable 24h prediction

• Likely range: 176.0–181.0, with an upside extension toward 183.0 if 180.7 breaks and holds.
• Probability-weighted tilt: Upward drift > sideways > down.

Trade plan summary

• Position: Buy (Long).
• Optimal open (limit on dip): 177.50.
• Take-profit objective (initial): 183.20 (pivot R2 / supply test / fib extension confluence).
• Risk control (not an order field, informational): 173.20 stop guide; consider partial at 180.65 (R1) and trail above 181 to capture a possible run into 184 if momentum accelerates.