NVDA setting up for an 183 retest: buy the dip above the 20‑day for a gap‑fill push

Comprehensive multi‑method technical analysis for NVDA (next 24 hours)

1. Market structure and price action

• Regime: Since late June, NVDA has been in a primary uptrend (mid‑June closes ~145 rising to early Aug highs ~184). Over the last two weeks, price has consolidated in a 175–184 range after a shakeout to 168.8 intraday on 8/20, followed by strong dip‑buying.
• Today’s candle (8/25): Open 178.35, High 181.91, Low 176.57 (hourly print briefly to 174.85), Close 179.81. Green real body with a pronounced lower wick shows downside rejection and demand stepping in near 176–177. The late-session long lower tail (hourly) indicates absorption of a liquidity sweep below intraday supports with recovery into the close.
• Key levels from recent swing high/low: Resistance 182.5–184.5 (multi‑test supply: 8/8–8/14 highs 183–184.5). Support 175–176 (closing support band) and deeper 172.6–174.1 (gap‑fill/pp S2 zone). A base of higher lows is emerging post 8/20 (168.8 → 174.98 → 177.99 → 179.81), hinting at an ascending triangle vs flat resistance near 183.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• SMA20 ≈ 179.13 (computed from the last 20 closes). Price closed modestly above, reclaiming the mean after the 8/19–8/21 drawdown. Bullish short-term tilt.
• EMA8 (est.) ≈ 179.6; EMA21 (≈ SMA20) ≈ 179.2. 8>21 alignment marginally bullish; price oscillating around these short MAs, consistent with a range poised to break.
• SMA50 (est.) ≈ 164–166; SMA200 (est.) ≈ 142–145. Price is well above both, confirming intact intermediate/long-term uptrend. Pullbacks remain buyable while above the 50‑day.
• 5/10‑day cross: 5‑day SMA ≈ 176.76 now rising and likely to cross above a flattening 10‑day, a near-term momentum bullish tell.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (est.) ≈ 53–55: Neutral-to-slightly bullish. No divergence vs price on the last swing; room to move to 60–65 on a push to 183–184.
• Stochastic %K(14,3) (est.) ≈ low‑60s, curling up from midrange—supports continuation toward range highs.
• MACD(12,26,9): Near zero and turning up; histogram slightly positive as price reclaims the 20‑day—typical of a range-to-trend re‑acceleration.
• ADX(14) (est.) ≈ 18–20: Trend strength modest; we’re in a consolidation with potential to expand. +DI has nudged above −DI after today’s bounce.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (est.) ≈ 4.8. Expect average daily range roughly $4–$6. Today’s H‑L = 5.34 fits this profile.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid ≈ 179.1; Bands est. ~174.6 / 183.6. Price closed just above the midline after probing toward the lower band, a classic mean‑reversion bounce with room toward the upper band (≈183.5).
• Keltner Channels(EMA20 ± 1.5*ATR): Center ≈ 179.2; upper ≈ 186.4; lower ≈ 172.0. Price is mid‑channel—not extended.

5. Fibonacci context (swing 8/12 high → 8/20 low)

• Swing: High 184.48 → Low 168.80 (range 15.68).
• Retracements from low: 38.2% 174.79, 50% 176.64, 61.8% 178.49, 78.6% 181.12. Price is above 61.8% and oscillating beneath 78.6%; a clean break/hold over ~181.1–181.3 typically targets full retrace 184.5 and then minor extensions.

6. Intraday microstructure (today)

• Opening drive lifted from ~178.35 to ~181.25; midday churn near 181.3; late-day liquidity sweep to 174.85 on the 20:00 bar quickly reclaimed to ~180. This pattern suggests buyers defending dips and shorts covering into weakness.
• VWAP (intraday est.) ≈ 180.8–181.2. Closing slightly below VWAP after reclaim implies mild intraday distribution but not decisive—consistent with consolidation under resistance rather than rejection.

7. Volume and participation

• Today’s composite volume ~160.6M, roughly in line with recent averages. The 8/19–8/20 selloff printed heavier distribution (185–215M), but subsequent recovery sessions show steady demand. OBV (qualitative) has stabilized and is curling up.

8. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Tenkan (9‑period midpoint) ≈ (max high ~184.5 + min low ~175.5)/2 ≈ 180.0; Kijun (26‑period midpoint) est. ≈ 176–177. Tenkan > Kijun and price near/above Tenkan: short-term bullish bias. Chikou span remains above price from 26 periods ago (~164), reinforcing bullish regime.

9. Classical pivots for next session (based on today’s H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 179.43.
• R1 ≈ 182.29, R2 ≈ 184.77, R3 ≈ 187.63.
• S1 ≈ 176.95, S2 ≈ 174.09, S3 ≈ 171.61. Interpretation: A push through R1 likely attracts momentum toward R2 (which also coincides with the prior high zone ~184.5).

10. Pattern read and confluence

• Ascending triangle base: Rising swing lows beneath flat resistance at ~183 supports an upside breakout probability if volume expands above 182.5–183.
• Gap‑fill magnet: The 8/19 gap down left an unfilled pocket into ~182–182.5; price repeatedly attempts to fill—typical magnet that often completes before the next decision.
• Mean reversion alignment: Price back above 20‑SMA and 61.8% Fib, with upper Bollinger near the gap zone—confluence pointing to a test of 181.1–182.5 and likely probe toward 183.

11. Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early dip holds 178.7–179.3 (20‑SMA/61.8% Fib area), then grind higher to 181.1–182.3, with extension into 182.8–183.2 if momentum firms.
• Alt range (30%): Chop between 178–181 around pivot/VWAP, multiple tests but no decisive break; close near 180–181.
• Bear risk (10%): Loss of 176.9 (S1) on increased volume opens a quick flush to 175–174.1 (S2) before buyers re‑assert; this would delay the breakout and re‑test the lower range.

12. Trade thesis and risk management

• Thesis: The uptrend remains intact. Momentum and mean‑reversion signals favor buying dips above the 20‑day with a near-term target at the prior supply shelf (182.5–183.3). Confluence: SMA20 ≈ 179.1, Fib 61.8% 178.5, pivot ~179.4, and Tenkan ~180—tight cluster of support.
• Invalidations: A decisive break and 30–60 min hold below ~176.9 (S1) would negate the immediate long setup and shift focus to 175/174.1.
• Suggested stop (for risk control; not part of output fields): ~176.7 (below S1/50% retrace cluster), yielding roughly 1.4–1.6% downside vs ~1.9–2.0% upside to 183.2, with potential runner to 184.7 if momentum expands.

Bottom line: Bias modestly bullish; buy‑the‑dip into 178.8–179.3 with targets into 182.9–183.2 over the next 24 hours. A momentum alternative is a breakout buy above 181.3 toward 183.0–184.5, but the dip entry offers superior risk/reward.