NVDA Poised for a Neckline Break: Buy the Pivot, Target R2 Into 184s Within 24 Hours

Step-by-step multi-technique technical analysis for NVDA (next 24 hours)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe trend: From late April ($109 close on 4/28) to late August ($181.77 close on 8/26), NVDA remains in a strong primary uptrend with a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The June–July consolidation around $143–$157 resolved higher into the $170s–$180s in July/August.
• Recent swing dynamics: A sharp but contained pullback occurred 8/19–8/21 (low $168.80 intraday, closing base around $175). Since 8/22, buyers have reasserted control with higher lows at $177.99 (8/22), $179.81 (8/25), and today’s close at $181.77, indicating an emerging short-term uptrend resumption.
• Intraday session (8/26): Open ~$180.01, high ~$182.39, low ~$178.81, close ~$181.77. Price spent most of the session above VWAP, consolidating $181.6–$182.2 into the close—constructive for follow-through.

2. Moving averages (trend/stacking)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 177.99
• 10-day SMA ≈ 179.17
• 20-day SMA ≈ 179.44
• 50-day SMA (approximate) ≈ 162–165 (based on June–Aug data) Interpretation: Price (181.77) > 20SMA > 10SMA > 5SMA > 50SMA upward stack—bullish. The short-term SMAs turned higher after the 8/19–8/21 dip, signaling a resumed upswing. Distance to a rising 50SMA remains wide, confirming strong primary trend with no immediate mean-reversion pressure from that timeframe.

3. Momentum oscillators

• 14-period RSI (approximate) ≈ 52. Neutral-to-bullish and far from overbought; room for upside before momentum-based sellers typically appear (>70).
• Stochastics (qualitative): Recovered from mid-zone, likely trending toward 60–70; not overbought.
• MACD (qualitative): After the mid-August correction, MACD line is curling up, and histogram has likely flipped positive or is close, consistent with early-stage bullish momentum rebuild.
• ADX (qualitative): Trend strength moderate (~18–22 est.). Signals a trend that is rebuilding; not yet extended/exhausted.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (approximate): ~3.5–3.8. Typical daily swings support a feasible 24-hour move into the $183–$185 zone if bullish pressure sustains.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) (approximate): Mid-band ≈ 179.44 (20SMA). With recent realized vol, estimated bands near: Upper ≈ 184–185, Lower ≈ 174–175. Current price sits in the upper half but below the upper band—there is room to test the upper band on constructive tape.

5. Candlestick and price-action signals

• 8/20 printed a hammer-like day (low $168.80, close $175.40) after the selloff—classical reversal signal.
• Since then, daily candles show higher lows and persistent closes above the mid-body of each session, suggesting dip-buying.
• Today (8/26) a constructive up day closing near the top half of the range with intraday acceptance above $181—supports continuation.

6. Support and resistance mapping

• Key supports: 180.99 pivot (see pivots below), 179.6 (S1), 177.4 (S2), 175–176 (multi-day closing base), 174.98 (8/21 close), 168.8 (8/20 swing low).
• Key resistances: 182.70–183.16 (8/8–8/12 resistance cluster), 183.88 (8/7 intraday high), ~184.6 (R2 calculation), psychological 185. Break/hold above 183.2 opens path to retest 184.6–185.

7. Pivot points (classic, using 8/26 H/L/C ≈ 182.39/178.81/181.77)

• Pivot P ≈ (182.39+178.81+181.77)/3 ≈ 180.99
• R1 ≈ 183.17
• S1 ≈ 179.59
• R2 ≈ 184.57
• S2 ≈ 177.41 Interpretation: Price closed above P and within reach of R1; the 24h upside map favors tests of R1 and potentially R2 if momentum persists. Pullbacks to P (≈181.0) often offer high-quality entries in a bullish day-after setup.

8. Fibonacci retracements (recent swing)

• Swing high 8/7 ≈ 183.88 to swing low 8/21 ≈ 174.98 (Δ ≈ 8.90)
• 38.2% ≈ 178.38, 50% ≈ 179.43, 61.8% ≈ 180.48 Interpretation: Price reclaimed the 61.8% level and is advancing—bullish. Sustained closes above 180.5 typically precede retests of the full prior high (183.9–184+) and often overshoots.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative approximation)

• Price above cloud; Tenkan likely crossed above Kijun near 180. Cloud support lags in the 176–178 region. Bullish alignment supports buy-on-dips with the cloud as a secondary defense.

10. Volume, VWAP, and participation

• Post-selloff sessions show healthy but not euphoric volume. The bounce from 8/22 onward occurs on steady participation, suggesting accumulation rather than short covering alone.
• Intraday (8/26) VWAP anchored ~181.6–181.8; price closing near/above VWAP indicates buyers controlled most of the day and had no aggressive late-day distribution.

11. Pattern recognition

• Inverse Head & Shoulders (short-term): Left shoulder ~8/15 (~180.45), head ~8/20 (~175.40 close, 168.80 low), right shoulder ~8/22 (~177.99). Neckline sits ~182–183. A decisive break/hold above ~183.2 activates a measured move toward 185–187 (within 1–2 ATRs).
• Rising channel (micro): 8/22 to 8/26 shows higher lows and higher highs; today’s action respects upper-half of the channel.

12. Scenario analysis (24h)

• Bullish base case (~55–60%): Early dip into 181.0–181.3 (pivot retest) finds buyers; price then grinds through 182–183, pokes R1, and tests 184.5–184.7 (R2/upper band). Close in 183.2–184.6 range.
• Range/sideways (~25–30%): 180–183 chop as market awaits a catalyst; upper wicks near 183 cap the move; supports near 180.8–181.0 hold. Close ~181.5–182.5.
• Bearish alternative (~15–20%): Failure to hold pivot; break below 179.6 (S1) exposes 177.4 (S2). This would likely require a macro risk-off headline or broad-tech weakness. Probability lower given today’s structure but not negligible.

13. Risk management and trade structuring

• Preferred entry: Buy-the-dip near the daily pivot (≈181.0–181.3). This optimizes reward/risk in an uptrend aligned with intraday VWAP and short-term SMAs.
• Take-profit (24h horizon): Target R2/upper band confluence at ~184.6. A secondary stretch target near 185.0 (psychological) exists but may require a strong tape.
• Protective stop (not part of order schema but recommended): ~178.8 (below S1 and beneath 8/22 low body), aligning with ~0.7–0.8× ATR from entry. Risk ≈ $2.4 vs reward ≈ $3.4–$3.6 yields ~1.4–1.5 R:R.
• Alternative momentum entry (if no dip): Breakout buy stop >183.3, with similar target 184.6–185 and tighter stop ~181.8; this is a secondary plan if market gaps higher.

14. Confluence summary

• Price above 5/10/20SMAs and reclaimed 61.8% retracement—bullish.
• RSI neutral-to-bullish (~52) with room to run; MACD turning up.
• Pivot structure places price above P and near R1; R2 aligns with Bollinger upper band and prior highs (~184–185).
• Pattern (inverse H&S) and higher-low sequence support a push toward 184.5–185 over the next session.

Prediction (next 24 hours)

• Expected path: Modest dip to 181.0–181.3, then advance to test 183.2, with a likely probe into 184.3–184.7. Projected range: 179.6–184.8, with an upward drift bias.

Conclusion

• Bias: Bullish continuation. Favor Buy-the-dip near pivot with take-profit into the R2/upper-band zone over the next 24 hours.