NVDA: Coiling Under Resistance — Buy the Dip for a Push Toward 184

Step 0 — Data sanity and what to ignore

• The intraday bar at 2025-08-27 20:00 shows an impossible wick (H 228.77, L 129.27) with modest volume relative to regular-hours flow. This is a bad tick/erroneous print and should be ignored for signal generation. The subsequent 21:00:04 extended-hours single print at 176.85 also looks like a low-liquidity after-hours mark; I treat it as noise. I anchor the analysis on regular-hours price action and the provided currentPrice = 181.6.

Step 1 — Trend and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: Since mid-May, NVDA has formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The advance from the 5/12 close near 123 to the 8/12 swing high 184.48 was followed by a controlled pullback to 8/20–8/21 lows ~175.4–175.0, then a higher low on 8/22 (177.99) and continued recovery. This is classic uptrend behavior with a mild mid-cycle dip.
• Current stance relative to recent swing points: Price 181.6 is above the 8/22 pivot low (177.99), above the 8/21 low (174.98), and below the 8/12 high (184.48). The last three sessions made higher lows (8/25: 176.57, 8/26: 178.81, 8/27 intraday: 179.10), indicating buyers are stepping up.
• Intraday (today): Opened ~181.06, bid up to 182.49, defended 181s multiple times, and closed near VWAP ~181.6–181.8. Tight, balanced session with a slight upward bias.

Step 2 — Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~179.6. Price at 181.6 sits above the 20-SMA, indicating short-term bullish bias.
• 50-day SMA (approx range): ~167–170 (rising). Price is comfortably above, confirming intermediate uptrend.
• 100-day SMA (approx): ~155–158 (rising materially).
• 200-day SMA (approx): upper 140s to low 150s (rising). Strong long-term uptrend intact.
• Short-term EMAs (8/21-day): Price reclaimed both after the Aug 19–21 shakeout; typical of trend resumption. The 8 > 21 > 50 alignment is either in place or very close, consistent with a bullish regime. Impact: With price above rising 20/50/100/200-day MAs, the path of least resistance remains up; pullbacks are buyable.

Step 3 — Momentum and oscillators

• 14-day RSI (approx): mid-50s (about 52–56). This is neutral-to-bullish, far from overbought; room to run toward prior highs.
• MACD (daily): After the mid-Aug dip, the fast line is curling above the slow line with the histogram slightly positive or near zero and improving. Early-stage bullish re-acceleration signal.
• Stochastic RSI: Recovering from mid-range toward 60–70; momentum is building but not extended. Impact: Momentum confirms a constructive setup without the risk of overbought exhaustion.

Step 4 — Volatility and expected movement

• 14-day ATR (approx): ~4.0–4.5. Using 4.2 as a working figure yields an estimated next-session expected range of about ±2.3% from the last close (roughly 177.4–185.8 around 181.6), absent major news.
• Implied “day-ahead” planning levels: Expect responsive buying on dips into 179.5–180.5 and supply near 183.5–184.5; a clean break beyond either boundary could expand range by ~1–2 ATRs. Impact: Supports a tactical buy-the-dip plan with a 2–4 dollar swing potential over 24 hours.

Step 5 — Bollinger/Keltner/squeeze context

• 20-SMA Bollinger Bands: Midline ~179.6; upper band estimated ~184.5; lower band ~174.6. Price at 181.6 sits above the midline and below the upper band — a typical trending-but-not-extended posture.
• Keltner Channels: With ATR ~4.2, upper KC likely ~183.8–184.2; price is leaning into, but not through, the upper envelope. No active squeeze; volatility normalized after August’s mid-month expansion. Impact: Room to press toward 183.5–184.5 without immediate overextension.

Step 6 — Volume, accumulation, and breadth proxies

• Volume: High turnover on 8/19–8/20 (175 handle) had “shakeout” characteristics; subsequent advance occurred on moderate/declining volume — consistent with a constructive basing/mark-up transition.
• OBV (qualitative): Post-dip, OBV likely stabilized and is inching higher; no glaring negative divergence vs price near 181–182. Impact: Post-shakeout accumulation suggests buyers control the tape on dips.

Step 7 — Support and resistance map (confluence)

• Nearby supports: 181.0–181.2 (today’s intraday pivot and POC area), 180.4–180.6 (minor shelf), 179.0–179.3 (today’s low zone), 177.9–178.1 (8/22 close), 175.4–175.0 (8/19–8/21 swing floor; major).
• Overhead resistance: 182.4–182.7 (repeated intraday caps 8/26–8/27), 183.0–183.3 (supply shelf), 184.3–184.5 (Bollinger/Keltner confluence; 8/12 high 184.48). Above that, extensions come into play. Impact: The tape is carving an ascending triangle: rising lows since 8/21 vs relatively flat resistance in 182.4–183.3. These break upward more often than not when trend context is bullish.

Step 8 — Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: 7/22 low 167.03 to 8/12 high 184.48 → pullback lows 8/20–8/21 at 175.4–175.0 land between the 50% (175.76) and 61.8% (173.69) retracement — the golden pocket area — then price pivoted higher. Textbook corrective retracement within an uptrend.
• From the 8/20–8/21 lows (≈175.0–175.4), 1.0x swing back targets retest of 184.5; 1.272 extension maps near 186.3; 1.618 near 188.2. These are potential upside magnets if 184.5 breaks. Impact: Fib levels add confluence to 184.3–184.5 as first upside objective, with 186–188 in play on breakout.

Step 9 — Ichimoku context (daily)

• Price trades above the cloud; cloud is rising. Conversion (Tenkan) likely near ~180; base (Kijun) near ~177. Lagging span above price. Net: bullish state with supportive baselines below price. Impact: Adds to the pro-trend bias; typical play is to buy pullbacks toward the Tenkan or Kijun in an uptrend.

Step 10 — VWAP and market profile (tactical)

• Today’s VWAP (regular hours) clustered around ~181.6–181.8. The session balanced near that area; buyers defended sub-181 dips.
• Anchored VWAP from the 8/19 capitulation low (~175.64) is estimated around 179.8–180.3 given subsequent volume distribution. Price above anchored VWAP is a bullish tell; pullbacks to this zone tend to attract buyers. Impact: Using 180.0–180.3 as a preferred dip-entry zone aligns with both anchored VWAP and prior day value.

Step 11 — Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Recent candles: 8/19–8/21 produced long lower-shadows and stabilization (reversal signature). 8/22 was a strong green day off that base. 8/26 and 8/27 printed small-bodied candles near the top of the recent range — consolidation under resistance, not rejection. Today’s intraday traces an ascending triangle with equal highs around 182.4–182.7. Impact: Coil under resistance tends to resolve higher if buyers maintain higher lows — exactly what we observe.

Step 12 — Risk scenarios and probabilities (next 24 hours) Base case (55–60%): Mild bullish continuation

• Plan: Early dip toward 180.0–180.6 gets bought; price rotates higher through 182.4–182.7 resistance, testing 183.3 and potentially tagging 184.0–184.5 by end of session.
• Expected range: 179.5 to 184.5, settlement near the upper third if breakout holds.

Bullish extension (20–25%): Range expansion breakout

• Conditions: Quick push through 183.3 with volume; shallow intraday pullbacks hold above 182.4.
• Target: 184.5 retest; if absorbed, extensions to 186.0–186.5 (Fib 1.272 and upper KC stretch) possible.

Bearish fade (15–20%): Failed breakout / deeper pullback

• Conditions: Early breakout stalls at 182.7–183.3 and sellers press through 180.8–180.5; value shifts lower.
• Target: 179.0–178.5 first; deeper probe into 177.9–177.5. Major buyers expected above 175.5.

Step 13 — Strategy synthesis

• Trend filters: Bullish (price above rising 20/50/100/200 SMAs, above Ichimoku cloud, above anchored VWAP from the 8/19 low).
• Momentum: Neutral-to-bullish (RSI mid-50s, MACD turning up).
• Volatility: Moderate; enough room for a 2–4 dollar swing intraday without overextension.
• Pattern: Ascending triangle under 182.4–183.3 with higher lows; odds favor upward resolution in an uptrend.
• Confluence buy zone: 180.0–180.6 (anchored VWAP, minor shelf, proximity to Tenkan and today’s defended area).
• Primary upside magnet: 183.5–184.5 (resistance cluster and Bollinger/Keltner confluence). Beyond that, 186.0–186.5 if a clean breakout runs.

Trade Plan (24-hour tactical swing)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip.
• Entry (limit): 180.20 — inside the highest-probability demand pocket where multiple tools agree (anchored VWAP, intraday shelf, ATR-based pullback, and yesterday’s value).
• Take profit (first target): 183.90 — just beneath the 184.3–184.5 resistance/upper band to increase the probability of fill before potential stall.
• Optional stop (for risk framing; not part of the required fields): 178.60 (below the 8/22 pivot and today’s lower distribution), giving roughly $1.60 risk to $3.70 reward (R:R ≈ 1:2.3). Conservative traders could use a tighter stop under 179.0 if they want 1:2 to the 183.9 target.

Why not chase at market? With price near 181.6 and resistance at 182.4–182.7, a small dip entry improves R:R and avoids buying into the overhead supply band. If price gaps up and runs, the alternative would be a breakout add above 183.30 with a different plan; however, for a single optimal open, the 180.20 dip-buy provides the best expectancy.

Bottom line

• The broader uptrend is intact. The mid-Aug pullback found support in the golden pocket and has since produced higher lows. Momentum is rebuilding, and price is consolidating under resistance — a constructive backdrop. Expect dips to be bought and a push toward 183.5–184.5 over the next session, with 186+ possible if 184.5 is cleanly reclaimed.