NVDA: Pivot Reclaim and VWAP Hold Point to a Dip-Buy Revisit of 184

Executive summary and bias

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (buy-the-dip). Expect a range trade with an upside re-test of 182.8–184.3 if 179.5–180.4 holds.
• Key intraday context: After a high-volatility spike to 184.47 and flush to 176.41, NVDA reclaimed VWAP and closed near 180, printing a long‑legged doji at the 20‑day mean — classic indecision after expansion, but with dip-buyers active.

What the tape says (multi-timeframe)

1. Price action and structure

• Trend: From late June, structure is higher highs/higher lows. August has been an orderly stair-step up with a corrective pullback 8/19–8/21, then a push to new local high today (184.47) before mean-reverting to the 20‑day average.
• Today’s candle: Long‑legged doji/spinning top after making a new local high. That’s neutral-to-slightly cautionary at extremes, but the intraday reclaim of VWAP leans constructive into tomorrow if we hold above the 179 handle.
• Support/resistance (spot = 180.17): • Resistance: 181.8–182.7 (recent close cluster), 184.3–184.5 (today’s high/upper band), 188.4 (R2/push extreme). • Support: 179.0–179.7 (VWAP/20SMA zone), 176.2–176.6 (classic S1/50% Fib of 8/20→8/28 leg), 175.0–175.6 (8/19–8/21 closes), 172.3 (S2).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20SMA (approx): 179.68. Price closed just above, reinforcing mean reversion complete for now.
• 50SMA (approx): rising in the high 160s (~167–170) and well below price — medium-term uptrend intact.
• 100SMA (approx): mid‑150s; rising slope confirms broader bullish regime.
• Short EMAs: EMA(8) ~179.9; EMA(21) ~179.3. Slightly positive EMA stack, suggesting shallow pullback within an uptrend.
• Impact: With price near the 20SMA/EMA ribbon after an upper-band tag, the path of least resistance is a stabilization then attempt to re-test the highs, unless 178.5 breaks decisively.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (approx): ~54. Neutral-bullish; neither overbought nor oversold.
• Stochastic (14,3,3) (approx): ~55–60; mid-range after cycling down from overbought — room to turn up on any early strength.
• MACD (12,26,9) (qualitative): Slightly positive line with a flattening histogram near zero — consolidation behavior consistent with a coil for continuation.
• ADX (14) (approx): low 20s, suggesting a moderate trend that can resume if resistance is pressed.
• Impact: Momentum has cooled from overbought and is reset enough to support another push if price holds the pivot zone.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands(20,2): • Middle: ~179.7 (today’s close sits near it). • Upper: ~184.3 (today tagged 184.47 and rejected — a precise band test). • Lower: ~175.1.
• ATR(14) (approx): ~4.6. Today’s high-low (8.06) was >1.7× ATR, indicating a one-off expansion likely followed by a range day.
• Keltner Channel confluence: Price backed off upper envelope and reverted to midline — textbook compression potential for tomorrow.
• Impact: Expect a narrower day vs. today, with a likely 1.0× ATR envelope from the midline: 179.7 ± 4.6 → 175.1–184.3; the upside edge aligns with R1/UBB confluence, making 183–184 a magnet if buyers control the open.

5. Fibonacci mapping (8/20 swing low to 8/28 high)

• Swing low 8/20: 168.80; swing high today: 184.47; range = 15.67.
• 38.2% retrace: 184.47 − 5.99 ≈ 178.48 (today’s rebound zone).
• 50% retrace: 184.47 − 7.84 ≈ 176.63 (intraday low 176.41 pierced and snapped back).
• Impact: Clean reaction at 38.2–50% golden pocket indicates strong dip demand; favors a follow-through test toward 182.8–184.3 if 178.5+ holds.

6. Intraday execution lens (VWAP/volume profile)

• Session VWAP (calc from provided hourly bars): ≈ 178.95–179.00.
• Close > VWAP with higher-lows after the 13:30 ET liquidation — a constructive recovery pattern.
• High-volume node (HVN)/POC: 179–180 is the day’s acceptance area.
• Impact: Above 179.0, bulls have the tape; below 178.5, control flips back to sellers and opens the 176s again.

7. Pivot points for next session (classic)

• Using H=184.47, L=176.41, C=180.17: • Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 180.35. • R1 ≈ 184.29, R2 ≈ 188.41, R3 ≈ 192.35. • S1 ≈ 176.23, S2 ≈ 172.29, S3 ≈ 168.41.
• Impact: Spot 180.17 is marginally below P. Early reclaim/hold above 180.35 sets a directional path toward R1 (184.3), tightly aligned with the upper Bollinger band and today’s high zone.

8. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Today: Long‑legged doji/spinning top after a strong rally — indecision at resistance, often followed by an inside day or measured move, direction resolved by the pivot.
• Micro pattern: Intraday higher lows post-14:30 ET and close over VWAP — bullish micro-structure into the next open.
• Medium pattern: A stair-step advance since mid-July with shallow pullbacks — trend integrity remains.

9. Elliott-wave style read (heuristic)

• Potential 5-wave impulse from 8/20 low (168.8) to 8/28 high (184.47). Post-peak ABC corrective dip appears to have tagged the 0.5 retrace near 176.6 and bounced. If correct, a new minor impulse can attempt to retest highs tomorrow.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative, inferred)

• Price > estimated cloud; Tenkan likely near 179–180, Kijun ~177–178; Span A rising.
• Impact: Pullback to Tenkan and hold fits a trend-continuation scenario.

11. Risk framing and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Hold 179–180 early, reclaim P=180.35 → push into 182.2–182.8, optional extension to 183.8–184.3 (R1/UBB/high supply).
• Bear case (30%): Lose 178.5 on breadth weakness → slide to 176.6 (0.5 Fib/S1), attempt bounce; deeper extension to 175.5 if selling persists.
• Tail-up (10%): Strong gap-and-go through 181.8 off the open → fast test/flush of 184.3; only on heavy volume and market risk-on.
• Tail-down (5%): Broad risk-off; break 176.2 → 172.3 (S2) Air-pocket, then sharp reversal.

12. Confluences that matter

• Confluence support: 178.5–179.7 = VWAP, 20SMA, EMA ribbon, acceptance node.
• Confluence resistance: 183.8–184.5 = R1, UBB, session high, supply shelf.
• Mean reversion completed at mid-band; positioning favors a measured re-test higher rather than immediate breakdown, absent negative catalyst.

Trading plan and execution

• Strategy: Buy-the-dip toward VWAP/20SMA with a target into R1/upper band. Avoid chasing strength into 183–184 unless a breakout setup with volume and tight risk appears.
• Entry: Ideal limit buy 179.2 (in the acceptance pocket just above VWAP 178.95 and the 20SMA 179.68; allows a wick to 178.8 without fill risk).
• Validation: Above 180.35 pivot, momentum should carry toward 182–184. If price rejects the pivot repeatedly and trades sustained <178.5, abandon the long idea.
• Risk (not part of order output but essential): Stop 176.1 (below S1/0.5 Fib and today’s liquidity sweep) — risk ≈ 3.1.
• Target: 183.8 (just below R1/upper band/round-number liquidity to get paid before the crowd). Reward ≈ 4.6. R:R ≈ 1.5:1.

Why Buy vs. Sell

• Bull case edges: Reclaim of VWAP, hold above 20SMA/EMA ribbon, reaction at golden pocket, rising 50/100SMAs, and confluence pivot near price.
• Bear case hinges on a decisive loss of 178.5; until then, sellers have not proven control post-recovery.

24-hour price path projection

• Opening probe likely near 179.5–180.5. If the first 30–60 minutes hold above P=180.35 and build higher lows, expect a drift to 181.8–182.8 by mid-session, with an afternoon attempt at 183.5–184.3. Failure to reclaim pivot early implies a 178.5–180.5 range, with downside check to 176.6 only if market-wide risk-off emerges.

Bottom line

• NVDA is resetting at the 20‑day mean after an expansion day, with buyers defending the VWAP/179 pocket. The path of least resistance is a controlled grind higher toward 183.5–184.3, provided 178.5 holds.