NVDA Hammer at Key Fib Support: High-Probability 24H Gap-Fill Bounce Setup

Note on data quality and preprocessing

• The 2025-09-02 20:00 bar in the intraday series shows an impossible high/low spike (221.39/135.64) with a close back at ~170.25. This is a tape error/bad print. I exclude that outlier from all calculations and pattern reads.

Multi-timeframe structure and trend map

• Primary trend (May → mid-August): Strong uptrend from ~113 (early May closes) to the mid-August highs near 184, marked by persistent higher highs/lows and rising moving averages.
• Intermediate trend (late August → today): Corrective leg lower from ~182–184 toward the high-160s. Today made a marginal lower low at 167.22 versus the 8/20 low at 168.80, keeping the short-term trend down but entering a key support cluster.
• Immediate (intraday) structure (9/2): Gap down from Friday’s 174.18 close, early selloff to 167.22, then steady recovery to finish ~170.78, reclaiming day VWAP late session and printing a hammer-like daily candle (small green body, long lower wick). This shows demand emerged into weakness.

Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Supports: 171–168 (50% retracement and prior swing lows), 167.2 (today’s low/flush), 165.2 (61.8% retracement), 164–163 (July cluster).
• Resistances: 172.6 (38.2% retracement), 173.0–174.2 (gap fill/8-29 close 174.18), 175.3 (R2 by classic pivots for 9/3), 177.2 (prior pivot R1 from 8/29), 179.2 (20-day SMA / mid-Bollinger).

Moving averages (approximate)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 177.7 (price below; short-term weak).
• 10-day SMA ≈ 177.2 (price below; confirms short-term corrective phase).
• 20-day SMA ≈ 179.2 (computed from last 20 closes; price ~8.4 below, stretched).
• 50-day SMA ≈ 168–170 zone (est., based on June–Aug distribution). Price is testing this zone from above, a typical first-bounce area during pullbacks.
• Read: Short-term MAs slope down, but price sits at/just above the 50-day – classic spot for mean-reversion attempts.

Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 31 (calculated): Entering oversold territory. Sequential declines since 8/26 drove RSI to the border of classic bounce zones. This supports a 1–3 day rebound probability.
• Stochastic oscillators (qualitative): Fast/slow stoch likely sub-20 and curling; aligns with a short-term bounce setup once price holds above intraday pivots.
• MACD (12/26): Bearish since late Aug, histogram negative. However, today’s intraday recovery suggests decelerating downside momentum (histogram contraction likely imminent), which often precedes a counter-trend pop.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 179.2; lower band estimated near ~172.0. Today’s close ~170.8 is at/just below the lower band tag. A close outside/at the lower band after a multi-day slide is a higher-probability mean-reversion signal toward the midline over several days; within 24 hours, a move toward 172.5–174 is reasonable.
• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~4.0–4.5. Implies an expected 1-day range of roughly ±2.3–2.6%. From 170.8, that frames 166.5–175.5 as a plausible envelope. A 173–174 target is inside a 1×ATR move and reachable without requiring trend change.

Volume, VWAP, and candle analytics

• Volume 9/2 ~229M, elevated vs recent sessions (often 150–200M). A high-volume down-gap day that finishes in the upper half of the range with a long lower wick indicates absorption and responsive buying.
• Day VWAP: Price regained and held above into the final hours (17:30 onward), supportive of a near-term upside continuation attempt early next session.
• Candlestick: Daily hammer after a downswing. Confirmation requires a higher high/close next day. The setup is present.

Fibonacci and symmetry

• Swing used: 7/1 low 153.30 → 8/12 high 184.48 (range 31.18).
  • 38.2%: 172.57.
  • 50%: 168.89.
  • 61.8%: 165.19.
• Price probed below 38.2% and bounced near the 50% line (low 167.22, close back above 170). This is a typical corrective depth for a wave-2/B-type pullback; a reflex to 38.2%/gap zone (172.6–174.2) is consistent with fib behavior.

Classical pivots (for 9/3 using 9/2 H/L/C: 172.379/167.220/170.780)

• Pivot P ≈ 170.13. S1 ≈ 167.87. R1 ≈ 173.03. R2 ≈ 175.29. These align well with the fib/gap map. A regular-session reclaim of the daily pivot and push toward R1 is a common post-hammer path.

Pattern reading

• Short-term descending channel from 8/26 to 9/2 with lower bound hit today. Intraday structure shows a series of higher lows from the 15:30 hour onward, hinting at a nascent channel break attempt tomorrow if the open is above ~170.2–170.5.
• Elliott-wave lens (heuristic): A-B-C from late-Aug highs appears plausible with C ≈ 167.2. If correct, a counter-trend rally (either start of a new impulsive leg or a relief wave) targets the 172.5–175 region first.

Support/resistance clustering (why 173–174 matters now)

• Gap-down from 174.18 (8/29 close) leaves an open gap. Gap resistance often acts as a magnet on first bounce attempts and is commonly tested within 1–3 sessions.
• R1 pivot ≈ 173.0 and fib 38.2% ≈ 172.6 sit just beneath the gap edge, creating a tight resistance band. A push into this band satisfies multiple techniques concurrently.

Risk framing and scenarios for next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Mild green day, open near 170–171, hold above pivot 170.1, advance toward 172.5–173.8, possibly tagging the gap lip. Close in 172–174 zone.
• Bull case (25%): Momentum carry through, early strength over 171.5–172, squeeze to R2 ~175.3 if broader tape is supportive. Probability lower without a news catalyst but within ATR reach.
• Bear case (20%): Early failure at 171–172, push below 169.5, retest 168.0–167.2. A decisive close below 167 would open 165.2 (61.8%) next, invalidating the bounce setup.

Trade design logic (24-hour tactical swing)

• Edge comes from: oversold oscillators (RSI ~31), lower Bollinger tag, hammer with high-volume absorption, reclaim of VWAP late day, and confluence of 50% fib + 50-day SMA zone support.
• Entry preference: Buy on a minor dip/retest near the daily pivot/VWAP cluster (≈170.1–170.4) to balance fill probability and risk. That area also aligns with several intraday higher lows.
• Profit objective: First target into the confluence shelf 173.0–174.2 (R1/gap/fib). Selecting 173.8 captures the bulk of the high-probability move without needing a stretch to R2.
• Risk guardrail (informational): A protective stop (not required in output) would logically sit beneath 167.0 (today’s flush and S1 vicinity), acknowledging that a break-and-hold below there likely drives to 165.2. That sets an R:R around 1.1–1.3 for the 173.8 target from a 170.2 entry; acceptable for a high-probability, mean-reversion day trade.

Synthesis and call

• While the intermediate swing is still corrective, the immediate setup favors a relief bounce over the next 24 hours. Multiple independent signals (RSI oversold, Bollinger lower-band tag, hammer/absorption, VWAP reclaim, fib/pivot confluence) support a tactical long aiming for a gap test.
• Therefore: Bias = Buy for a 1-day bounce toward 173–174.