NVDA: Oversold Into Multi-Support — Prime for a 24-Hour Mean-Reversion Pop Toward 175

NVDA — full-spectrum, step-by-step technical read for the next 24 hours

Summary view

• Setup: Short-term corrective slide into multi-support confluence with early signs of seller fatigue. Mean-reversion bounce favored unless 167.1 breaks.
• Bias (24h): Slightly bullish (tactical). Probability-weighted rise toward 173.8–175.9 if 168.9–170 holds.
• Optimal plan: Buy the dip around 170.0 (limit), targeting the first gap/major retracement band near 175.5. Risk line in sand: 167.1.

1. Price action and structure

• Higher time frame trend: Up since mid-May, with stair-step advances (135 → 145 → 155 → 170s → 180s) and shallow consolidations. Long-term uptrend intact.
• Short-term trend: Pullback from the 184 area (multiple tests around 184 on 8/12 and 8/28) to 170–171, creating a descending channel since mid-August.
• Today’s (9/3) intraday: Failed pushes above 172.4; liquidity sweep to 175.4 at 20:00 was rejected hard, closing near 170.4–170.6. Despite the selloff, lows around 168.9 were defended multiple times (double-bottom behavior intraday), then a late bounce to 170.6.
• Key take: Structural lower highs/lows in the last 8–10 sessions, but price is now at channel support and a major reaction zone (168.9–171.0).

2. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA: ≈ 178.86 (calculated from the last 20 closes). • Price at 170.62 sits ~4.6% below the 20-SMA — short-term oversold in a longer uptrend.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~169.5–171.5 range (blend of June 140s–150s and July–Aug 170s–180s). • Price is essentially at/near the 50-SMA — classic mean-reversion area.
• 200-day SMA: Well below current price (long-term bullish regime).
• Read: Short-term corrective under the 20-SMA, testing the 50-SMA. Typical bounce candidate area in primary uptrends.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily: ≈ 31 (derived from the last 14 changes). • Near oversold threshold; risk skew favors an upside mean reversion if support holds.
• MACD daily: Negative and below signal after the recent slide; histogram still negative but decelerating as price compresses. Suggests waning downside momentum.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Likely sub-20s after multi-day decline; another oversold corroboration.
• Read: Momentum is bear-biased but stretched; conditions often precede 1–3 day bounces.

4. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) daily (est): ~4.0–4.5. Typical daily swing of ~2.3%–2.6%. • Implies next-session range potential roughly 166.5–175.5 from 171 midpoint.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 178.9. Estimated lower band ≈ 171.8. Price at 170.6 is fractionally below the lower band. • A close below the lower band is statistically stretched; mean reversion toward the mid-band starts with tests of prior pivots (R1/R2 zones).

5. Support, resistance, and confluence

• Nearby supports: • 170.6 pivot area (today’s classic P ≈ 170.64). • 168.9 (intraday S1 and session low; matches classic S1 ≈ 168.86). • 167.1 (classic S2 ≈ 167.10; also 9/2 swing low 167.22 region). Key invalidation.
• Overhead resistances: • 172.4 (R1 ≈ 172.39; today’s intraday cap). • 174.2 (R2 ≈ 174.17; also 8/29 close 174.18; gap-fill magnet). • 175.9–177.9 (Fib 50% at 175.86, 61.8% at 177.89 from 184.5→167.2 leg; supply from 8/26–8/28 cluster). • 180.2 (gap top from 8/28 close 180.17), later 181.6–182.7 (recent distribution shelf).
• Read: Dense resistance stack 172.4 → 174.2 → 175.9–177.9. First bounce targets are R1/R2 and 38.2–50% retrace.

6. Fibonacci mapping (swing high to swing low)

• Using 8/28–8/12 highs ≈ 184.5 and 9/2 low 167.22 (range 17.28): • 38.2%: 173.82 • 50%: 175.86 • 61.8%: 177.89
• Read: If the 168.9–170 shelf holds, a typical corrective bounce tags 173.8 first, then 175.9.

7. Candlestick/price patterns

• 9/2: Long lower tail (low 167.22, close 170.78) — dip buyers emerged.
• 9/3: Small real body with upper wick and failed 172.4s — indecision but still holding the same low zone (168.9). Not a clean reversal candle, but range compression near support after a run lower often precedes a relief pop.
• Intraday 9/3: Double-bottom 168.9 with a liquidity sweep to 175.4 and swift rejection — indicates supply overhead but also trapped shorts below 170 who may cover on strength.

8. Volume and participation

• Distribution days: 8/29 (243M) and 9/2 (231M) were heavy-volume selloffs.
• 9/3 volume ~162M by 20:00: Still elevated but lower than 8/29–9/2 extremes — selling pressure moderating.
• Volume profile impression: High activity in 174–182 through August; price now below value, increasing odds of a reversion attempt toward the 174–176 balance edge.

9. VWAP and intraday tape

• 9/3 VWAP (visual inference): Around 170.9–171.2. Close slightly below. Price repeatedly oscillated around VWAP; no sustained trend away from it into the close, suggesting two-way flow rather than persistent trend selling.
• If early trade reclaims VWAP (171–171.5), momentum rotation up to R1/R2 (172.4/174.2) is likely.

10. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun after a fast drop; Span A/B (cloud) still below price from the prior trend. Typical behavior in strong trends: pullback below fast lines to/near Kijun/50DMA then bounce. A Tenkan cross-back above Kijun in the next sessions would confirm the mean-reversion rally.

11. Classical pivots for next session (based on 9/3: H 172.41, L 168.875, C 170.62)

• Pivot P: 170.64
• R1: 172.39; R2: 174.17; R3: 176.12
• S1: 168.86; S2: 167.10; S3: 165.35
• Read: Perfect confluence — S1 ≈ intraday floor, R1 ≈ intraday cap, R2 ≈ the 8/29 close/gap level. Trading around P favors mean-reversion scalps toward R1/R2.

12. Risk management map (tactical)

• Invalidation: 167.1–167.2 break on strong breadth/volume increases risk of trend extension down to 164.6 (July 22 low region) and 162.9–161.6 (50DMA undercut scenarios). That would cancel the bounce thesis.
• Base case: Hold 168.9–170, reclaim VWAP early; rotate to 172.4 first, then 173.8–175.9.

13. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From late July peak to now appears as an ABC corrective structure. • A: 184.5 → ~175.4 • B: 175.4 → ~181.8 • C: 181.8 → 170.6 (≈ 167–170 trough region)
• C-leg magnitude now approaches parity with A; often where corrections terminate. Supports the bounce bias.

14. Synthesis and 24-hour outlook

• Bullish factors: RSI ~31 (near oversold), price below lower Bollinger band, support confluence (S1 168.9, 50DMA, prior swing low 167.2 just below), decelerating downside momentum, repeated defense of 168.9 intraday, mean-reversion tendency in strong uptrends.
• Bearish risks: Heavy distribution on 8/29–9/2; strong supply overhead (172.4 → 174.2 → 175.9), MACD still negative, long upper wick rejection on the 20:00 spike; a hot macro headline could re-accelerate risk-off.
• Base path (60/40): Early probe into 169.5–170.5, hold and turn up through 171.5 (VWAP reclaim), tag 172.4 (R1), extend toward 174.2 (R2) and potentially 175.5–175.9 (Fib 50%/gap band) within 24 hours if momentum improves.

Trade Plan (tactical)

• Position: Buy (long) for a 24-hour mean-reversion bounce.
• Entry (limit): 170.00 near pivot/round number, slightly below last trade to improve R:R.
• Profit target: 175.50 (inside the 175.9 Fib/half-back and below dense supply at 176–178 to increase fill probability).
• Risk guardrail (not an order field but for context): 167.10–167.20. A decisive break negates the bounce setup and would favor a move to 164.6.

Contingencies

• If NVDA reclaims 171.5 quickly at the open and does not pull back to 170: Consider chasing only on a strong VWAP hold with momentum, but risk/reward is inferior vs. resting at 170.0.
• If 168.9 breaks intraday but snaps back above S1: Still valid for a bounce, but reduce size.

Conclusion

• The tape is corrective within a broader uptrend and tactically stretched. Confluence at 168.9–171 with RSI ~31 and a Bollinger Band breach favors a relief pop toward 174–176 over the next 24 hours. Execute a patient buy-the-dip near 170 with a target at 175.5. Invalidate on a clean break of 167.1.