NVDA: Deep Fib Rebound at 171 Sets Up a 24‑Hour Mean‑Reversion Long

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Mildly bullish (mean-reversion bounce). Expect an initial dip toward 170.9–171.2 followed by an advance toward 172.6 (R1) and potentially 173.6–174.0 (gap-resistance cluster). Probability-weighted path favors a crawl higher unless 170.0 breaks decisively.
• Rationale: Price is rebounding from a deep Fibonacci retracement confluence near 171/170, sitting at the daily Kijun and lower Bollinger Band with intraday VWAP reclaimed. Momentum indicators are stabilizing from oversold, volumes suggest selling pressure is waning, and pivots favor a grind higher.

Market structure and multi-timeframe read

• Daily trend: Primary uptrend from May (117) to August highs (~184). Recent correction from 8/27–9/3 produced a deep pullback to the 170 area, but structure still shows higher lows vs. June/July and price likely remains above the 50-day trend base.
• Weekly context (implied): Strong secular uptrend; recent weeks show digestion under 183–184 supply with expanding participation, then a sharp shakeout to 170s. Current location is mid-channel support zone.
• Intraday (hourly) 9/4: Sideways-to-up day. Session pivot reclaimed into the close; late ramp to 171.65. A spiky 20:00 bar shows a transient high print to 181.24 that was immediately rejected back to ~171.5, likely a data aberration or isolated print rather than true liquidity; core structure remains around 171.

Key levels and confluences

• Support: 170.0–170.9 (session pivot, daily Kijun zone, lower BB proximity), 168.3–168.8 (S2 + prior swing low cluster), 167.2 (9/2 liquidity sweep low).
• Resistance: 172.6 (R1), 173.6–174.2 (R2 + gap/closing resistance from 8/29–9/2), 175.3 (R3), 176.6–178.5 (50%/38.2% retrace to the August high and 20-day SMA mean zone).
• Pivots (calculated from 9/4 H/L/C = 171.86/169.41/171.66):
  • Pivot P ≈ 170.98; R1 ≈ 172.64; S1 ≈ 170.04; R2 ≈ 173.62; S2 ≈ 168.36; R3 ≈ 175.26; S3 ≈ 166.72.

Technical toolkit (indicator-by-indicator)

1. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 178.5 (est.). Price below 20-SMA indicates a short-term corrective phase within a larger uptrend; this often supports mean reversion bounces toward the moving average after reaching lower band extremes.
• 50-day SMA (est.) trending upward in mid- to high-160s. Price likely remains above the 50-SMA, so intermediate trend bias stays bullish.
• Read: Pullback in an uptrend. Expect rallies to encounter supply 173–176; buys should be tactical near support.

2. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Middle band ≈ 178.5; lower band estimated ≈ 170.5–171.0 given recent volatility. 9/3–9/4 action tagged/hovered near lower band and bounced. Typical behavior is a snapback toward the mean when bands are not persistently expanding.
• Read: Supports a 1–2 day upward mean-reversion toward 172.6–173.6 first, then perhaps 175 if momentum improves.

3. RSI (14)

• Qualitative estimate in the high 30s to low 40s after a multi-session drop; now curling higher. Not oversold enough to expect a violent squeeze, but sufficient for a constructive bounce.
• Read: Momentum stabilization; room to rise before overbought zones.

4. Stochastics (Full 14,3,3)

• Likely crossed up from sub-20 levels on the daily as price stabilized near 170–171.
• Read: Short-term bullish momentum signal aligning with a bounce thesis.

5. MACD (12,26,9)

• MACD line below signal with negative histogram that appears to be contracting as the slide slows. A bullish cross hasn’t printed yet, but histogram stabilization precedes price improvement.
• Read: Early-stage bottoming; confirmation would be a positive histogram within 1–3 sessions.

6. ADX/DMI

• ADX likely in the low-to-mid 20s with -DI dominant during the selloff; recent sideways suggests trend weakening. Weak trend environments favor mean reversion over momentum follow-through.
• Read: Rips get sold, dips get bought; today favors buying dips near pivot support.

7. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price likely above the cloud but near the Kijun (~171–173). Tenkan (short-term) likely above price (resistance ~175–176). Chikou span still above price structure from 26 sessions ago.
• Read: Kijun often acts as a magnet; tests near the Kijun tend to produce bounces. If price reclaims Tenkan next, momentum can resume toward 176–178.

8. Volume/OBV/CMF

• Volume spiked during 8/29 and 9/2 down moves; 9/4 volume lighter, suggesting pressure is easing. OBV likely dipped but has flattened; CMF likely negative but improving as bids return near 170.
• Read: Distribution phase is losing steam; buyers probing support.

9. VWAPs

• Session VWAP on 9/4 hovered ~170.9–171.2 and was reclaimed late. Anchored VWAP from the late-July breakout likely sits ~174–176; that’s the next negotiation zone and probable supply.
• Read: Above session VWAP into the close is a constructive tell for next-day follow-through unless macro shocks intervene.

10. Fibonacci mapping

• From 8/20 low (168.80) to 8/12 swing high (184.48):
  • 38.2%: ~178.49; 50%: ~176.64; 61.8%: ~174.75; 78.6%: ~172.16; 88.6%: ~170.62.
• Price just rebounded from the 78.6–88.6% deep retracement pocket (172.2 to 170.6) with multiple intraday tests and holds.
• Read: This pocket often marks exhaustion of a corrective move before a bounce to 61.8% (~174.8) or the 50% (~176.6) on subsequent days; for 24 hours, 172.6–173.6 is realistic, 174.8 a stretch target if tape is strong.

11. Candlesticks and patterns

• 9/2: Long lower shadow (hammer-like) off 167.22 intraday, closing at 170.78—sign of demand soaking liquidity.
• 9/3: Small body/inside-range day—compression.
• 9/4: Green candle closing near highs around 171.66—follow-through. The three-candle sequence resembles a mild Morning Star variant into support.
• Read: Pattern supports a bullish bias for the next session.

12. Market profile / microstructure

• Acceptance developing around 170.4–171.3 (value area). Late-day push above value high suggests initiative buyers into the close.
• Read: If early trade holds above 170.9–171.1, buyers likely press toward 172.6.

13. ATR and expected range

• Recent true ranges 2.5–5.2; 14-day ATR est. ~3.0–3.4. With NFP-week tendencies, expect a 2.5–3.5 range. From 171.2 entry, a +2.6 move to ~173.8 is feasible.

14. Deviation/Z-score to mean

• Z ≈ (Price − 20SMA)/σ ≈ (171.7 − 178.5)/~4 ≈ −1.7. Historically, |Z| ≥ 1.5 often mean-reverts within 1–3 sessions.
• Read: Supports a short-term bounce case.

15. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Corrective ABC from late-Aug peak appears to have completed with C leg near 167–171 zone. New impulsive attempt may be commencing; confirmation requires reclaim of 173.6–174.

16. TD Sequential

• After a string of down closes, setup count is likely mature (8–9). That frequently precedes a bounce.

17. Event risk and anomalies

• The 20:00 bar’s print to 181.24 was immediately faded; treat as an anomalous print/stop run, not actionable trend.
• Macro: First Friday of the month often brings U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls; headline-driven gaps are possible. Plan entry with limits, not markets; use protective stops.

Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55–60%): Hold 170.9–171.2 early, push to 172.6 (R1), then probe 173.6–174.0 (R2/gap-resistance). Close in 172.2–173.5 zone.
• Bear case (25–30%): Lose 170.9 quickly, test 170.0 (S1). A break opens 168.3–168.8 (S2/prior swing). Close sub-170 if broad market weakens on data.
• Bull extension (10–15%): Strong tape carries through 174.0 toward 175.3 (R3). Needs catalyst and sustained breadth; less likely within 24 hours.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Direction: Long (Buy).
• Entry (limit): 171.2 (dip to session value/pivot zone). Acceptable buy zone 170.9–171.3.
• Profit target (24h): 173.8 (just below R2/gap resistance to increase fill probability). Stretch: 174.8 if momentum/volume expand.
• Suggested stop (not part of order fields but critical): 169.4 (below S1 breakdown and Thursday’s intraday base). Invalidation below 169.0 (opens path to 168.3/167.2).
• Risk/Reward: From 171.2 to 173.8 = +2.6; to 169.4 = −1.8. R:R ≈ 1.4–1.5, acceptable for a mean-reversion scalp with supportive breadth.

Why not short?

• Despite being below the 20-SMA, price is sitting on multi-tool support confluence (deep Fib, Kijun, lower BB, pivot). Downside room exists, but asymmetry for 24h favors a bounce into overhead supply rather than an immediate breakdown absent macro shock.

Checklist confirmation

• Reclaimed session VWAP into close: Yes.
• Held pivot P ~170.98 into close: Yes (close 171.66).
• Momentum curling from oversold: Yes (RSI/Stoch/MACD histogram).
• Nearby resistance identified and front-run for TP: Yes (173.6–174.0 zone).

Bottom line

• Expect a fade-to-buy opening toward 171.2 followed by a push to 172.6 and 173.6–174.0. Use a tight stop under 169.4; consider taking profits into 173.6–173.9 given dense supply and the 20-SMA overhead still declining.