NVDA: Sell the Bounce Into 169 — Momentum, Volume, and Pivots Point Lower to 163

Comprehensive multi-method technical analysis for NVDA (close: $167.02, session low/high: $164.07/$169.03; heavy volume)

1. Trend and market structure

• Daily trend: A clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the late-August peak (intraday high 184.47 on 2025-08-28). Closes rolled from 181–183 to 170–172, and now 167.02. Short-term trend is down.
• Key swing points: High 184.47 (Aug 28), selloff to 174.18 (Aug 29), bounce stalls below prior highs (Aug 27–28), then breakdown to 170.78 (Sep 2) and a fresh leg lower today to 164.07 intraday, settling at 167.02.
• Structure: Price lost the 170–172 shelf (now resistance). The 165 handle is emerging as near-term support (today’s low 164.07). Below that, next demand zones sit near 162.9, 161.6, and 159.3 (June/July swing references).

2. Moving averages (approximate, from provided closes)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 170.85: Price ($167.02) is well below; near-term bearish momentum.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 175.56: Price well below; confirms short-term downtrend and stretched condition vs the 10DMA.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 177.78: Price materially below; trend pressure remains lower.
• 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ 163–166: Price is hovering just above or around the 50DMA; this increases the probability of a tactical bounce from 165–166, but a decisive daily close below ~165 would open 162–159.
• Read-through: Bearish across 5/10/20DMA with potential first line of defense around the 50DMA zone.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): Sliding into the high-30s/low-40s. Not yet deeply oversold (<30), leaving room for further downside before a reflexive bounce becomes likely.
• MACD daily: Negative and expanding since late August. No confirmed bullish crossover yet; momentum remains to the downside.
• Stochastics (qualitative): In/near oversold but can remain pinned in a downtrend; not a standalone buy signal.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ≈ $4.5–$5.0 based on the last sessions (ranges: ~2.5–5.2). Expect ±3% swings to remain commonplace.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ $177.8. Lower band estimated around $169 ±$1 based on recent standard deviation. Today’s close is at/just below the lower band—indicative of short-term oversold, but “band walking” is typical in strong downtrends.
• Keltner Channel (20 EMA, 1.5xATR): Mid ≈ $177–178; lower channel ≈ $170–171. Price is tracking/slightly below the lower Keltner—consistent with a trending, oversold tape, vulnerable to short-covering pops that fade.

5. Volume and money flow

• Down days since Aug 28 have printed elevated volumes (Aug 28: ~281.8M; Aug 29: ~243.3M; Sep 2: ~231.2M; Sep 5: ~221.2M), while up days are lighter. On-Balance Volume (qualitatively) has been trending down—distribution.
• Today’s intraday: The opening bar (13:30Z) carried the heaviest print (~85M shares), pushing price to 165.1 close on that bar; subsequent recovery to ~167 into the close, but no decisive reclaim of broken levels. This suggests dip-buying interest exists, but sellers still control the primary move.

6. Intraday microstructure (Sep 5)

• VWAP (approx., heavy weight from initial 13:30Z bar at 165.14 with ~85M volume): Session VWAP approximates mid-165s to mid-166s. End-of-day pricing (167 area) sat marginally above VWAP—modest intraday recovery but no trend reversal.
• Value area: Most acceptance between ~165.9 and 166.9; point of control near ~166.4. The 167–169 zone above was probed but not converted to sustained acceptance.
• Note on 20:00Z spike (H 175.34, L 159.18, volume ~10.5M): Likely closing auction/dark-pool/print anomalies. Treat as outlier rather than a fresh directional signal; it does underscore elevated volatility risk around settlement.

7. Support and resistance mapping

• Immediate resistance: 168.7–169.3 (intraday supply), then 170.8–171.7 (gap-down origin and daily R2 pivot), and heavier resistance 173.8–175.9 (Fib retrace cluster and prior congestion), then 177.9–180 (20DMA/volume node).
• Immediate support: 165.0–165.5 (50DMA vicinity; price memory), 164.07 (today’s low), 162.9 (Jul 9 close), 161.6 (Jul 10 intraday low), then 159.3 (Jul 3 close).

8. Fibonacci framework (Aug 28 high 184.47 to Sep 2 low 167.22)

• Range = 17.25. From the low, 38.2% = 173.82, 50% = 175.85, 61.8% = 177.89.
• Price failed to reach even the 38.2% retracement in the bounce—weakness hallmark. Rejection beneath 172–174 keeps the path of least resistance down while lower lows persist.

9. Classical patterns and gaps

• Bearish gap (Sep 5): 171.66 (prior close) to 168.03 (open). This unfilled overhead gap acts as a magnet in countertrend bounces but is typically sold into when the primary trend is down.
• Descending channel: Lower highs since mid-August with each rally sold beneath prior peaks—a controlled downtrend rather than a capitulation low.
• Candlestick: Today resembles a long-range bearish day that closed off the lows—not a hammer. It relieves some intraday pressure but doesn’t reverse the trend.

10. Pivot levels for the next session (based on daily H/L/C: 169.03/164.07/167.02)

• Pivot (P): 166.71
• R1: 169.34; R2: 171.67; R3: 174.30
• S1: 164.38; S2: 161.75; S3: 159.42
• Implication: First bounce resistance is 169.3 (aligns with intraday supply). Support test likely near 164.4; break opens 161.8.

11. Elliott wave (tactical, qualitative)

• From 184.5 peak, the leg down into Aug 29 looks like wave A, a shallow B-pause into Aug 27–28 failed, and we’re in/near a C leg lower pushing to and through 170s. The internal count favors at least one more push lower toward 162–160 before a more durable bounce develops.

12. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud likely above spot given recent selloff. No bullish TK cross. Bias remains bearish until price reclaims and holds above ~171.7–173.

13. Probability-weighted 24-hour path

• Base case (55%): Early bounce toward 168.7–169.3 (R1) fails; sellers press toward S1 164.4 and probe 163–162.9. Close near 163–165 range.
• Alternative (30%): Strong gap-up or squeeze through 169.3 tests 171.7 (R2). Without heavy volume reclaim above ~172, rallies stall; choppy fade back to the mid-166s.
• Tail risk (15%): Risk-off/negative catalyst drives a direct break of 164.4 and a fast test of 161.7–159.4 (S2/S3), possibly followed by a reflexive bounce.

14. Synthesis and trade plan

• Bearish factors: Lower highs/lows, price below 5/10/20DMAs, MACD bearish expansion, RSI not yet oversold, heavy sell-volume on down days, unfilled overhead gap, failure to even reach 38.2% retracement.
• Counterpoints: Price is near the 50DMA and lower bands; a tactical bounce is possible. Hence, favor selling strength rather than chasing lows.
• Tactical setup (short): Use a patience entry into 168.5–169.5 (R1 cluster/overhead supply). Target the 162.5–163.0 demand zone within ATR for a 24-hour horizon. Invalidation if price reclaims and holds above ~171.9–172.0 (prior day’s high zone/near R2), which would likely signal a squeeze toward 173.8–175.9.

Conclusion: Short the bounce into 168.5–169.5 with a target near ~163. Risk is a squeeze to ~172; manage with a disciplined stop. Overall, the short-term trend and momentum favor a Sell into strength over the next 24 hours.