NVDA Coils Below 180: Gap Support Holds as Bulls Eye 182 in the Next Session

NVDA | Daily timeframe through 2025-09-12; current price: 177.82 (as of 2025-09-14)

Executive view for the next 24 hours: NVDA is consolidating just beneath a well-defined 180–182 resistance shelf after a high-volume gap-up on 2025-09-10 that remains largely unfilled. The short-term structure is a rising-lows base pressing into overhead supply—an ascending triangle-like setup. With neutral momentum resetting and multiple supports stacked 176.6 → 175.5 → 174.5, the path of least resistance tilts modestly higher into 179.8–182 if early dips are bought. Expect a buy-the-dip bias toward 177.0–176.6 with a breakout attempt toward 181–182; failure at 178.8 risks a quick retest of 176.6/175.5.

Step-by-step analysis

1. Price action and structure

• Trend context (May → September): Strong advance into late July (mid-150s → high-170s), rangebound through August in the 175–184 zone, sharp late-August/early-September shakeout to 167, then an abrupt gap-up recovery on 2025-09-10 reclaiming the 176–178 band. Currently price is knitting higher-lows just under prior supply (180–184).
• Recent sequence (last five sessions): • 2025-09-09 close 170.76 → 2025-09-10 gap open 176.64 on heavy volume, close 177.33 (gap held intraday to 175.47 low). • 2025-09-11: push to 180.28 but close back at 177.17 (supply visible near 180–181). • 2025-09-12: inside-type day, high 178.60, low 176.45, close 177.82.
• Ascending triangle characteristics: rising swing lows (175.47 → 176.45) while highs stall 178.6–180. A sustained push through 179.7–180 would likely target the low-182s and potentially the 183–184 ceiling.
• Open gap dynamics: 2025-09-10 gap from prior close 170.76 to open 176.64; lowest retrace since = 175.47. That leaves an unfilled gap window 170.98–176.64 with partial fill to 175.47. Open gaps often act as magnets; however, holding above 175.5 keeps the gap as bullish support, arguing for dip buys above 175.5.

2. Support/resistance mapping (confluence)

• Resistance shelves: 178.60 (9/12 high), 179.70–180.00 (78.6% retrace & pivot R2 zone), 181.70–182.50 (August congestion), 184.50 (upper August supply/upper band vicinity).
• Support layers: 176.65 (pivot S1 from last session), 175.47 (gap low ≈ pivot S2), 174.50 (pivot S3 / late-Aug swing), 171.6–171.0 (early-Sept bounce area), 167.02 (swing low; key invalidation for the larger uptrend).
• Classic pivot points (based on 9/12 H/L/C = 178.60/176.45/177.82): • Pivot P = 177.62; R1 = 178.80; R2 = 179.77; R3 = 180.95; S1 = 176.65; S2 = 175.47; S3 = 174.50. Note how R1/R2 line up with recent highs, and S2 equals the post-gap low—strong confluence.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA ≈ 175.77: Price is above the 20-SMA—bullish short-term posture.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 172.6: 10-SMA rising and below the 20-SMA but converging; a bullish short-term acceleration setup (potential 10/20 bullish cross if strength persists).
• 50-day SMA (estimate ≈ 172–173): Price remains above the 50-SMA, confirming an intact intermediate uptrend.
• 200-day SMA (well below current price): Long-term trend remains up. Implication: Short- and intermediate-term uptrends are intact; near-term momentum has reset without breaking structure, supportive of continued recovery.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 50: Neutral and rising from the mid-40s following the gap; leaves room for upside expansion toward 60–65 on a breakout without immediate overbought risk.
• Stochastic (14): Using 167.0–183.2 range, %K ≈ 67; mid-high but not stretched—consistent with a consolidation readying for a push.
• MACD (12/26/9, qualitative): Momentum flipped positive on the gap day with a bullish signal cross; histogram has cooled modestly the last two sessions as price digests under resistance. A renewed push through ~179–180 likely re-expands the histogram positive. Implication: Momentum has reset to neutral-bullish; room to run if resistance yields.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 175.8; estimated upper ≈ 184.6; lower ≈ 167.0. Price is slightly above the mid-band with bandwidth still wide from the recent shakeout. There’s headroom to the upper band (~184.5), aligning with the August supply shelf—typical target on successful breakouts from ascending consolidations.
• ATR(14) (estimate ≈ 4.5–5.0): Day-range expectations support a ±2.5–3.0 move from the open; thus, 181–182 is achievable in one session if buyers control, while 175–176 is reachable if sellers fade the early pop.

6. Volume/participation

• Volume surged on the 9/10 gap (≈227M) and was lower but healthy on 9/11–9/12 (≈151M/125M). The gap-up on high volume is constructive; the subsequent digestion on lower volume is classic bullish consolidation behavior. Watch for a volume expansion above 179.8 to confirm breakout quality.
• OBV (qualitative): Uptick since the gap with no material distribution prints; neutral-to-positive read.

7. Fibonacci mapping (Aug high → Sept low cycle)

• Using 183.16 (8/12 high) to 167.02 (9/5 low): • 38.2% = 173.19 (reclaimed) • 50% = 175.09 (reclaimed) • 61.8% = 176.91 (currently hovering above) • 78.6% = 179.71 (key breakout trigger) Implication: Sustained closes above 179.7 would signal a near-full retrace and set the stage for a run at 183.2 and possibly 184–185.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative, daily)

• Price likely above a thinned cloud after the 9/10 gap with Tenkan > Kijun or converging; Chikou near price but not obstructed by thick cloud. Overall tilt: cautiously bullish; supports dip buys above Kijun-like support (~174–175 area).

9. Pattern diagnostics and tape risk

• Ascending triangle under 180: This suggests accumulation into resistance. Breakout probability improves with each higher low so long as 175.5 holds.
• Bearish alternate: A failure swing at 178.6–179.8 followed by a push through 176.6 likely invites a quick liquidity tag of 175.5 (gap low). A decisive break of 175.5 puts 174.5 and then 171.6 back in play and raises the odds of a partial-to-full gap fill toward 171.

10. Quantified near-term path (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈55%): Early dip to 177.0–176.6 is bought; price rotates above P = 177.6, tests R1 178.8, then R2 179.8. If 179.8 clears with volume, extension to 181.0–182.0 into the close.
• Bear case (≈35%): Early fade from 178.0–178.8, break back below P and S1 176.6, probe S2 175.5; buyers defend there; close 176.5–177.5.
• Low-probability tail (≈10%): Strong breakout through 180.9 (R3) run straight to 182.5–183.5, or conversely, high-momentum sell that cuts through 175.5 and tags 174.5.

11. Confluence summary

• Bullish: Price > 10/20/50 SMAs; gap support intact; ascending-lows structure; RSI neutral, room to advance; Fib 61.8% reclaimed; pivot stack favors constructive dips; upper BB at ~184.5 aligns with upside objective.
• Bearish risks: Heavy supply overhead 180–184; open gap magnet risk if 175.5 breaks; momentum cooled slightly under resistance—needs volume to confirm.

Trade plan implications

• Bias: Buy-the-dip or buy-on-breakout, given the supportive structure and nearby layered supports.
• Preferred tactic for risk/reward in the next session: Limit buy on a controlled pullback into 177.1 (above S1 and close to 61.8% Fib 176.9) targeting a push toward 181.8 (below major supply to front-run 182–184). This leverages the mean-revert into support with upside participation on any breakout leg.
• Alternate tactic: Momentum buy above 179.8 (78.6% Fib / R2) aiming 181.7–182.5. Noting the schema requires a single open/close price, the plan below reflects the dip-buy preferred entry.

Risk management notes (contextual)

• Invalidations to monitor intraday: Clean break < 175.5 (gap low/S2) weakens the bullish case and opens 174.5, then 171.6. A daily close under 175.0 flips the 24–48h bias to neutral/bearish.
• Expected intraday range: ≈ 175.8–181.8, with tail risks 174.5–183.5 if volatility expands.

Conclusion and 24h prediction

• Moderate bullish skew. Expect a test of 178.8–179.8; if volume confirms, extension toward 181–182 is likely. Dips toward 177.0–176.6 are favorable buys while 175.5 holds.