NVDA: Buy the Dip Near 175 for a Push Toward the 179–180 Supply Wall

Comprehensive multi-lens technical analysis for NVDA (next 24 hours)

1. Market regime and context

• Medium-term regime: Since late May, NVDA has been in a broad uptrend, followed by a high-level range from late Aug to mid-Sep. Structural range: ~170–182/184. Price is currently in the mid-to-upper half after rebounding from the lower boundary (168–171 zone).
• Current print: 176.24 (post regular session), up strongly from yesterday’s 170.29 close. The gap up held intraday and into the close, a constructive sign after yesterday’s selloff.
• Liquidity note: Hourly tape shows a brief spike to ~180.65 near the close hour that was faded; official daily high was ~177.1. Treat the 179–181 area as supply even if the 180.65 print was thin liquidity or an outlier.

2. Price action and structure

• Range behavior: Multiple rejections in 178–182 and basing demand in 168–171. Today’s session pushed off yesterday’s lower boundary, closing in the upper half of the day’s range, with the opening gap largely intact.
• Recent sequence: 9/10–9/12 clustered closes ~177–178 (supply shelf), 9/16–9/17 pullback to 174.88 then 170.29, 9/18 rebound to 176.24. This is a classic mean-reversion off range lows.
• Intraday microstructure (9/18): VWAP-centric grind with controlled pullbacks. The late-hour push failed at upper supply; nevertheless, the gap window (171–174) remained unfilled by the close.

3. Key levels (multi-timeframe confluence)

• Support: 171–171.7 (multi-day closes and 9/2–9/9 pivots), 172.9–173.2 (today’s intraday support), 168.4 (9/17 low), 164.1 (9/5 low; deeper fail-safe).
• Resistance: 177.3–178.0 (clustered closes and today’s official high area), 179.0–180.2 (Fib 61.8% retrace zone and supply), 181.6–182.7 (late-Aug closes), 184.5 (8/28 spike high).

4. Gap analysis

• 9/18 opened ~174.06–174.71 (hourly sequence) vs prior 170.29 close: bullish breakaway/continuation gap off range lows. The gap was partially explored but not filled, a sign of underlying demand. Unfilled gap support now sits ~171–174; a full fill would weaken the bullish near-term case.

5. Moving averages (approximations from available data)

• 20-day SMA: ~176–177. Price is oscillating near the mean after tagging the lower band yesterday. Today’s close just under or near the 20SMA favors a push to the upper band if momentum persists.
• 50-day SMA: trending upward, estimated ~170–172. Price reclaimed above it decisively today; retests should attract buyers.
• 200-day SMA: rising, well below current price (~150–155 estimated). Medium-term uptrend intact.
• EMA posture: Short EMAs (8/12/21) likely curling up post 9/17 selloff; room to re-test 178–180 if pullbacks are bought above ~174.5.

6. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): rebounded from low-40s to the mid- to high-40s/low-50s. Neutral-bullish; ample room before overbought.
• Stochastics: Reset from prior overbought, now hooking higher; favors a continuation attempt into resistance.
• MACD daily: Bearish drift into 9/17 likely produced a shallow negative histogram; today’s surge narrows the negative and sets up a potential bullish cross if follow-through occurs. Momentum turning constructive from neutral.

7. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• ATR(14) daily: ~4.5–5.0, implying a plausible next-session range of +/-$4–5 from the open.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near ~176–177, lower ~171, upper ~182–183 (est.). 9/17 likely tagged/approached the lower band; 9/18 reverted toward the mid-band. Typical BB mean-reversion setup with scope to test the upper band if 175–176 holds.

8. Volume and breadth

• 9/18 volume ~191M vs recent days’ average (approx mid- to high-100Ms): rebound on higher volume is accumulation-friendly.
• Prior down days (e.g., 9/17) were heavy but met by swift dip-buying, indicative of strong two-way trade in the range with buyers stepping in at the lower boundary.
• OBV (conceptual): Likely flat to slightly rising within the range—consistent with consolidation, not distribution.

9. Fibonacci mapping (8/28 high to 9/17 low)

• Swing high: 184.47 (8/28). Swing low: 170.29 (9/17). Range: 14.18.
• Retracements from low: 38.2% ≈ 175.70, 50% ≈ 177.38, 61.8% ≈ 179.05.
• Today closed above 38.2% and just beneath 50%; we saw after-hours probe near the 61.8% zone that failed. Expect chop between 177.3 and 179.0 with attempts to break; acceptance above 179 opens 181.6–182.7.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative read)

• Price near/above Tenkan after sharp rebound; Kijun likely ~174–175. A Tenkan cross above Kijun or sustained hold above Kijun supports a tactical long. Cloud likely below/around current price given prolonged uptrend; no overt cloud resistance until high 170s/low 180s.

11. Market profile / VWAP

• Session VWAP on 9/18 hovered ~176–176.5. Close near VWAP after holding gap suggests balanced-to-slightly-bullish posture.
• For the next session, an anchored VWAP from the 9/17 low should provide dynamic support in mid-175s.

12. Candlestick signals

• 9/17: Long bearish candle into range support; 9/18: strong bullish candle with a modest upper wick (official daily high ~177.1). The after-hours spike-and-fade into ~180.6 warns of overhead supply but also demonstrates demand capable of traversing that distance intraday.
• Net: Bullish reversal day off support with gap hold, not a blow-off.

13. Elliott wave (lightweight)

• Within the 170–182 range, the 9/17 drop likely completed a corrective leg (c) toward the lower boundary. 9/18 initiates a counter-trend impulse toward the range top. Expect a 3-wave move up: A (9/18), B pullback (into ~175), C extension into 179–181.

14. Harmonics / measured moves

• Simple measured move: The 9/18 net advance (~+6) often yields a partial retrace of ~38–50% (~2.2–3.0) to 173.2–174.0 if weak, but demand is stepping in higher (175–175.5) per intraday supports. A shallow B-wave pullback holding above ~174.8 is more consistent with bullish continuation.

15. Scenario map (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Buy-the-dip continuation. Early pullback to 174.8–175.5 finds buyers, price rotates through 177.3–178, then tests 179–180. Risk of initial rejection at 179.05 (Fib 61.8%); a second push can print 179.8–180.2.
• Bear case (25%): Failure to hold 174.8–175.0 leads to a gap-window probe 173.2–174.0; deeper fill toward 171.7–172.9 if momentum falters. Range remains intact; buyers likely re-emerge near 172.
• Bull extension (20%): Strong open above 177.5 with sustained bid breaks 179.0 on first attempt and runs stops into 181.6–182.0 before consolidating back toward 179.

16. Risk management and trade location

• Optimal long location: The confluence of Kijun-like support, anchored VWAP from 9/17, and Fib 38.2% retrace sits ~175–175.5; this balances R/R versus 179.8–180.2 initial target.
• Invalidation for the long idea: Sustained acceptance below 174.5 (back inside the gap body) increases odds of a full gap fill to ~171–173 and postpones the 179–180 test.

17. Confluence summary

• Bullish: Gap hold, reclaim of 50DMA zone, RSI reset then hook higher, MACD improving, BB mean reversion off lower band, fib rhythm projects 179–180, volume supportive.
• Bearish: Overhead supply 177–182, late-hour wick rejection near 180.6 (liquidity overhang), range still dominant with false breaks common. Net skew: Slightly bullish within range.

18. Expected path and timing

• Expect early dip buy attempts in the first 60–90 minutes of RTH. If 175 holds, momentum should rotate through 177.3 and attempt 179–180 by late session. If pre-market strength gaps above 177.5, watch for a quick push to 179, then a fade to 177.5–178 to reset before the next attempt.

Decision and trade plan for the next 24 hours

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within the 170–182 range, targeting the 179–180 supply shelf.
• Entry: Limit buy near 175.10 (optimal location within identified support cluster).
• Take profit objective: 179.80 (just below round-number/supply at 180 for higher fill probability). A secondary extension could print 180.2–181, but 179.8 is the higher-odds exit within 24h.
• Note: While not requested, a prudent stop for risk control would sit below 174.40 (invalidates the higher-low thesis), risking ~0.7 for ~4.7 reward to target (~6.7:1 R/R).

Bottom line

• NVDA remains range-bound but turned higher off lower-range support with improving momentum and a held gap. The highest-odds 24h play is a tactical long on a controlled pullback toward 175, riding a push into 179–180 where supply is likely to reassert. Expect choppiness near 177–178 on the way up; patience on fills is key.