NVDA pinned at OPEX pivot—setup favors a Monday pop toward 179.8 if 175–176 holds

NVDA | Multi-timeframe, indicator-stacked read-through and 24h path forecast

Context snapshot

• Ticker: NVDA (NVIDIA Corp.)
• Currency: USD
• Current price: 176.67
• Date: 2025-09-19 (Friday, quarterly OPEX)
• Daily range today: 175.18–178.08; Close ≈ 176.67; Heavy OPEX volume (~234.8M)

1. Price structure and trend (Daily)

• Regime: After the late-August pullback from ~184.5 (8/28 high), price carved an ABC corrective structure into early September (C low ~164.1 intraday on 9/5; close low 167.02), then built a series of higher lows: 9/05 > 9/17 (170.29) > 9/19 intraday low (175.18). Simultaneously, swing highs are lower (184.5 → 180.3 → 178.1). This forms a contracting symmetrical triangle within 170–180, a continuation-type coil that often resolves in the direction of the prior dominant trend (up) once dealer pinning effects subside.
• Key swing points: 184.47 (8/28 high), 174.18 (8/29 close), 167.02 (9/5 close), 170.29 (9/17 close), 178.08 (9/19 high).
• Market structure: Higher lows since 9/05 alongside lower highs = compression. Friday’s close in upper half of that coil and modestly above the 20-day mean favors an upside resolution if 175–176 holds early next session.

2. Moving averages and mean reversion

• 20-SMA (approx): Using last 20 closes (from 8/22 to 9/19), average ≈ 175.14. Price (176.67) > 20-SMA → short-term bullish bias.
• 50-SMA (approx): Given the gradual climb from mid-June through August and the September pullback, the 50-SMA likely sits in high-160s/low-170s; price trades above it, preserving an intermediate uptrend.
• Conclusion: Price is above near-term moving means, with 20-SMA rising—tilt bullish. A test of the 20-SMA (~175.1) would be a typical buy-the-dip location.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14): Approx ~59.5 (computed from 14-period gains ≈ 18.38 vs losses ≈ 12.49). This is neutral-to-bullish, not overbought, suggesting room to push toward 178–180 without momentum exhaustion.
• MACD (daily): Not explicitly calculated, but the sequence (rebound from 9/17 and two consecutive up days) implies the MACD histogram is turning positive with the fast line curling toward/through signal—an early bullish inflection consistent with a push to test overhead resistance.
• Stochastics: Likely mid/high range, consistent with RSI—no sell signal extremes.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: Visual estimate ≈ 3.6–4.0. Implies a typical session can traverse ~3.5–4.0 points from open-to-close or in intraday swings.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): With 20-SMA ~175.1 and recent dispersion, upper band likely ~180–182, lower band ~168–170. Current close sits in the mid-upper band zone—space remains to probe 178–180 before encountering band pressure.

5. Volume and microstructure

• OPEX pinning: Today’s heavy volume and close exactly at classic pivot (see below) is indicative of options-related pin. Such pinning often suppresses late-Friday directional moves. The “pin release” on the next full session (Monday) frequently expands range and permits a test of the next pivot/volume nodes.
• Volume clusters: From recent weeks, notable transactions concentrated around 170–172 and 175–178; on 9/19 intraday, dip buyers repeatedly appeared 175.5–175.8 while sellers capped near 178. This defines the near-term battle lines for Monday.

6. Intraday (hourly) tells (9/19)

• VWAP/mid-line gravity: The price oscillated around ~176.3–176.6 much of the day, finishing near this equilibrium, a hallmark of OPEX balance. Typically, the next session resolves away from that mean once gamma constraints abate.
• Repeated defenses: 175.5–175.8 absorbed sell waves several times, adding conviction to that as first support on any Monday dip.

7. Ichimoku (daily approximation)

• Tenkan (9-period mid of H/L): Using last 9 days: H9 ~180.28, L9 ~168.41 → Tenkan ≈ (180.28+168.41)/2 ≈ 174.35.
• Kijun (26-period mid of H/L): H26 ~184.47, L26 ~167.22 → Kijun ≈ (184.47+167.22)/2 ≈ 175.85.
• Price 176.67 > Tenkan and slightly > Kijun. Tenkan still marginally below Kijun, but price above both with cloud likely near/below 175—this is a constructive, early-stage bullish configuration. A sustained hold over Kijun typically precedes momentum pushes toward prior swing highs.

8. Fibonacci frameworks

• Macro swing: 8/28 high 184.47 → 9/5 intraday low 164.07 (range 20.40). 61.8% retracement = 164.07 + 0.618*20.40 = 176.67. Price closed almost exactly at the 61.8% retracement, a classic decision level. A clean push and hold above 176.7 usually unlocks the 78.6% retracement near ~180.0, then potential retest of the prior high 184.5 on a later session.
• Micro swing: 9/17 low 170.29 → 9/19 high 178.08 (range 7.79). 38.2% pullback = 175.10; 61.8% pullback = 173.27. Friday’s low (175.18) tested almost precisely the 38.2% and held—strong trend behavior. As long as NVDA holds above ~175.1, bulls maintain control of the short-term leg.

9. Pivot levels (classic, from 9/19 H/L/C)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = (178.08 + 175.18 + 176.67)/3 ≈ 176.64 (notably the exact OPEX pin area)
• R1 = 2P - L ≈ 178.11
• R2 = P + (H-L) ≈ 179.54
• S1 = 2P - H ≈ 175.21
• S2 = P - (H-L) ≈ 173.74 Expect Monday’s battle around the pivot 176.6. Above pivot, R1 178.1 is the first magnet; a breakout through R1 typically extends to R2 179.5–179.6, which aligns with the 0.786 Fib (~180) and Bollinger upper vicinity.

10. Options/gamma considerations

• The third Friday OPEX most likely pinned price near a high open interest strike (175–177). Post-OPEX, gamma decays, often allowing price to travel more freely toward fundamental supply/demand zones. This increases the probability of a Monday range expansion. With breadth/tech tone recently supportive and NVDA’s structural leadership intact, an upside expansion to 178–180 has favorable odds as long as 175–176 holds on the first test.

11. Pattern diagnostics and candles

• Candle on 9/19: Small green real body with wicks both sides (spinning top/indecision), after a strong reversal day 9/18. In context of an up leg, this is often a consolidation print rather than a reversal signal—especially with pinning effects.
• Symmetrical triangle: Base at ~170 (9/17) and top near ~178–180. A measured move on a triangle break can target the height of the triangle added to the breakout point. Height ≈ 10 (180–170). A breakout north of 178–179 projects toward ~188–189 in subsequent days/weeks. For the next 24h, we only seek the first expansion leg into 178–180.

12. Risk map (supports/resistances)

• Supports: 176.0 (intraday VWAP zone), 175.2 (S1), 175.1 (Fib 38.2 of the 9/17→9/19 leg), 173.7 (S2), 170.3 (recent swing close low), 168.4 (intraday low on 9/17).
• Resistances: 177.8–178.1 (intraday supply + R1), 179.5–180.0 (R2 + 0.786 Fib + round number), 181.6–182.7 (late-Aug supply), 184.0–184.5 (swing high).

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours / next full session)

• Base case (≈60–65%): Early probe lower into 175.6–176.2 (dip to 20-SMA/Kijun neighborhood), buyers defend; push through pivot 176.6 to R1 178.1; continued momentum tests 179.5–180.0 (profit-taking zone). Close likely in 178–179.8 band.
• Alt downside (≈30–35%): Early weakness loses 175.2 (S1). Price can extend to 173.7 (S2) before demand reappears. If broader market risk-off or NVDA-specific headline risk, a flush to 172.5–172.0 is possible, but odds lower while higher-low structure remains intact.
• Low-prob tail: Immediate gap-and-go above 178.2 opens a momentum run straight into 179.5–180.5 with shallow intraday pullbacks.

14. Trade plan logic (tactical)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip into first support while OPEX pin fades, targeting the confluence band just below 180. The setup is supported by: RSI ~60, price > 20-SMA and Kijun, micro Fib 38.2 hold, classic pivot confluence at 176.6, and symmetrical triangle compression near the upper half.
• Entry preference: Limit buy near 176.0 (between VWAP/pivot and 20-SMA) to maximize R:R and participation probability if Monday opens flat-to-soft.
• Profit objective: 179.8 (front-run the 180 round number/0.786 Fib/R2 cluster). This is within a 1x ATR session from the proposed entry.
• Invalidation (risk idea for your own risk control): A daily close back below ~174.5 would damage the higher-low structure and reject the Kijun/20-SMA cluster—would re-open 173.7 then 172–170.3. For intraday risk control, a stop beneath 174.4 keeps R:R near ~2.5–3.0.

Conclusion and 24h forecast

• Expect NVDA to attempt an upside continuation toward 178.1 first and, if reclaimed early, to extend into 179.5–180.0 within the next session. Dips into 175.6–176.2 are buyable while 175 holds on a closing basis. Probability-weighted path: mild early dip, then a push to R1 → R2.

Actionable summary

• Decision: Buy (Long)
• Optimal open (limit on dip): 176.00
• Take-profit target: 179.80
• Key confirmation: Reclaim/hold above 176.6 pivot early; breach of 178.1 adds momentum.
• Watchouts: Weekend headline risk and Monday gap behavior; if the open gaps above 178.2, consider a momentum entry with a tighter stop (not part of the numeric fields here but relevant tactically).