NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA: Post-Flush Fib Rebound Setup — Buy the 177.9 Dip for a Push Toward 182.6

Executive summary

Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (buy-the-dip). Expect a reflex bounce toward 181.8–183.0 after today’s 50–61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 9/17→9/22 advance was tested and briefly overshot after-hours, then reclaimed.
Key levels: 176.2 (RTH low) / 175.7 (61.8% fib) as near-term support; 179.1 (38.2% fib) and 180.2–180.7 (intraday VWAP/structure) as first resistance; 182.4–184.5 as supply zone.
Plan: Buy a controlled dip near 177.9 with a tactical target around 182.6 within the next 24h.

Daily context: 9/22 printed a wide-range bullish candle (close 183.61, high 184.55). 9/23 gapped down, trended lower, and closed 178.43, forming a bearish real body with a meaningful lower shadow. Despite the red day, price closed well above the RTH low (176.21), signaling demand into the close.
Intraday (hourly 9/23): Steady distribution from 181.5→178.7, a lower-low test to 176.21, then a recovery to 178.45 into the final hours. Post-market flushed to 174.23 and was swiftly reclaimed to ~178.3—classic stop-run/liquidity sweep behavior that often precedes mean reversion higher next session.
Swing structure: From the 9/17 pivot low (170.29) to 9/22 high (184.55), the pullback to 176.21 tested the 61.8% retracement zone (175.74). The quick reclaim back above the 50% level (177.42) into the cash close is constructive.

20-day SMA (approx): ~175.4. Price (178.4) sits above the 20-SMA—constructive for a buy-the-dip thesis.
50-day SMA (est.): mid-to-high 170s; price is at/above it, preserving intermediate uptrend structure.
200-day SMA (post-split est.): well below current price, confirming a long-term bullish regime intact.
Takeaway: Pullback within an uptrend, with price near fast MAs that commonly act as support in healthy trends.

RSI(14) daily (est.): low-to-mid 50s after today’s giveback—neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room to rebound.
MACD (12,26,9) daily: Positive line but narrowing histogram post 9/22 surge; still above zero, consistent with pullback-not-reversal.
Stochastics: Reset from near overbought toward neutral; set up for a bullish cross on a modest bounce.

ATR(14) daily (est.): ~5–6 points. Today’s high–low spread (~6.2) sits near ATR; a 4–6 point move tomorrow is reasonable.
Bollinger Bands (20,2) est.: Mid-band near 175.3–175.5; upper band roughly low-183s; lower band mid-to-high 167s. Today’s close is just above the mid-band after a band expansion day on 9/22. This positioning favors a reversion toward the upper half of the band (≈181.5–183.5) if buyers defend 176–178.

Volume: 9/22 up day was on elevated participation (≈270M). 9/23 pullback volume remained high (~187M), but the late-day/post-market reclaim suggests dip demand emerged.
Intraday VWAP (9/23): Estimated near 179–180; price ended slightly below but recovered after-hours—typical of a next-session VWAP reversion setup.
Volume profile (late Aug–present): High-volume node around 177–178 offering support; low-volume pocket 180–182 can accelerate moves once reclaimed; supply concentration near 183–184.5.

Swing 9/17→9/22 (170.29→184.55; range 14.26):
- 38.2%: 179.10 (today’s close sits just below; reclaim would trigger momentum)
- 50%: 177.42 (reclaimed into close)
- 61.8%: 175.74 (RTH low 176.21 tagged; AH spike to 174.23 briefly pierced deep fibs and was rejected)
Intraday bounce extensions from 176.21→178.91 suggest 1.272–1.618 projections around 180.9–181.8 as near-term magnets on strength.

Price holds above cloud; Tenkan estimated around high-178s, Kijun around mid-175s. Today looked like a Tenkan mean reversion. Reclaiming and holding above Tenkan (>~179) favors a push toward last swing high zone in the next few sessions.

Round-number 180 is a tactical pivot and likely options gamma node. Into mid-week, 180 can act as a magnet if price is defended above 177–178 early. Above 180.2, liquidity gap up to 182–183 increases odds of a swift test.

Not a textbook hammer but the longer lower shadow after an extended intraday selloff indicates responsive buying.
9/22’s large bullish candle plus 9/23’s fib-respecting retrace often resolves with a 1–2 day bounce, provided 175.7–176.2 holds.

Long-term: Uptrend intact; price well above 200D.
Intermediate: Healthy pullback to 20–50D neighborhood with higher-low sequence still viable above 175.
Short-term: Mean-reversion setup supported by VWAP/180 pivot, fib confluence, and post-market stop-run reversal.

Bullish base case (≈55–60%): Early probe 177.6–178.2, reclaim 179.1 fib, then squeeze through 180.2–180.7 toward 181.8–182.6. Optional wick into 183 if momentum and broader market risk-on.
Neutral consolidation (≈25–30%): Chop 176.8–180.8, closing near 179–181; sets up for a larger move later in the week.
Bearish break (≈10–15%): Lose 176.2 RTH low → 175.7 fib → downside extension to 173.3 (78.6% fib) or 172–170.3 prior pivot. Probability lower given rejection of the AH flush.

Rationale to Buy: Confluence of 50–61.8% retrace completion, responsive buyers at 176–177, reclaim of the 50% level into the close, proximity to 20D SMA, and a likely VWAP/180 reversion. The post-market stop-hunt to 174s and swift recovery supports a bullish skew.
Entry: Prefer a limit buy on a modest dip to 177.9 (near the 50% fib and high-volume node) to improve R:R while keeping structure intact.
Target: 182.6 (tests into the 9/22–9/23 gap down zone and below the 182.4–184.5 supply shelf). Within ATR and reachable in 1 session.
Invalidation guide (not an order, but risk context): A firm break and hourly close below 175.7 would weaken the setup and raise risk of a 173–172 test. A tight active stop could be trailed under 176.0 once 180 is reclaimed.
Reward-to-risk (illustrative): Entry 177.9 → TP 182.6 = +4.7; tentative risk to 175.6/175.7 ≈ −2.2/−2.3 → ~2:1 R:R.

Conclusion

The balance of evidence favors a tactical long over the next 24 hours, aiming for a reversion back toward 181.8–182.6, provided 175.7–176.2 holds. A decisive move back above 179.1 and 180.2 should accelerate the bounce toward target.