NVDA: Golden-Pocket Retest Sets Up a Tactical Bounce Toward 180

Disclaimer: This is educational market analysis, not financial advice. Trading involves risk. Use position sizing and hard stops.

Summary view (next 24 hours): NVDA closed 176.97 after a heavy-volume pullback that filled the 9/10 gap and tagged a major Fibonacci/pivot confluence between 175.4 and 177.4. The weight of evidence favors a tactical bounce toward 179.5–180.5 if 175.4 holds; a clean break below 175.4 opens 174.0–173.0. Plan: Buy the dip/limit on minor weakness near 176.2 (confluence) for a move into 180.2.

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily trend context: Medium-term uptrend from mid-July lows (~153) to 9/22 high (183.61). Short-term pullback for two sessions (9/23–9/24) from 183.61 to 176.97 (-3.6% today), testing prior breakout base (176–177).
• Today’s candle (9/24): Open 179.77, High 179.78, Low 175.40, Close 176.97. Close in lower third, but intraday defense of 175.40 (key swing) and late-session stabilization around 176.7–177.1. Heavy volume suggests a decisive test rather than illiquid drift.
• Structure: Since 9/10 gap up, price built higher highs/lows into 9/22, then a two-day mean reversion into the prior value area. The pullback completed a gap-fill and touched a multi-day demand zone at 175–177. Market structure still higher-timeframe bullish while short-term corrective. Expect a stabilization/bounce unless 175.4 fails.

2. Key levels (multi-timeframe confluence)

• Support • 175.40: Today’s intraday low; aligns with 61.8% retrace of the 170.29→183.61 leg (175.43). First line in the sand. • 174.9–175.0: Daily S1 pivot (174.99) and prior shelf (9/18–9/19 closes 176.24/176.67 as upper bound; shelf extends to 174.9). • 173.0–173.1: Daily S2 pivot (173.00) and prior 9/16 close 174.88 (zone below). Major demand if 175 breaks.
• Resistance • 177.35–177.40: Daily Pivot P (177.38). Expect initial supply. • 178.4–178.6: 38.2% retrace of 170.29→183.61 (178.52) + intraday supply from 9/24 morning and the LVN edge. • 179.3–179.4: R1 pivot (179.37). • 180.0–180.7: Psychological + 9/24 premarket supply, upper end of expected 1-day bounce. • 181.6–182.0: 9/27 cluster highs and prior nodes; stretch target if momentum improves.

3. Fibonacci mapping (precision confluence)

• Swing A: 170.29 (9/17) → 183.61 (9/22). Retracements: • 38.2% = 178.52 (first bounce gate) • 50.0% = 176.95 (today’s close sits right on it) • 61.8% = 175.43 (today’s low essentially tagged it) This creates a textbook golden pocket reaction zone 175.4–176.95.
• Larger swing: 168.80 (8/20) → 183.61 (9/22). • 38.2% = 177.95, 50% = 176.21, 61.8% = 174.45 The 176.2 50% of the larger leg precisely aligns with our proposed buy zone; 174.45 is the invalidation pivot for the larger structure.

4. Gaps and value

• 9/10 gap: 9/09 close 170.76 → 9/10 open 176.64. This gap was fully filled today (low 175.40), often a prerequisite for trend resumption.
• Value migration: Price has rotated back into a high-volume node 176–178 (June–Sept transactions). This zone tends to act as a magnet and a springboard after tests.

5. Volume/participation analytics

• Daily volume 142.8M, elevated versus many recent sessions, signaling real participation on the test.
• Intraday prints showed absorption around 176.5–177.1 after the 175.4 sweep, consistent with responsive buyers stepping in at the Fibonacci pocket.
• OBV (qualitative): Sideways-to-soft over the past week; not collapsing, which supports a corrective, not distributive, characterization.

6. Volatility and range

• 14-day ATR (est.): ~4.5–5.0. Today’s true range ≈ 4.38 fits within normal volatility. A +3.0 to +4.0 move is feasible in 24h if bounce materializes (targets 179.5–180.5).
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price near/below mid-band (approx 20-SMA). Bands modestly widening after contraction, consistent with a volatility reset; positioning near the mid-to-lower band favors mean-reversion attempts.
• Keltner Channels: Today tagged/approached lower channel intraday; reverting toward centerline favors 179–180 tests if sellers don’t press a gap-down.

7. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily: Mid-40s to ~50 region (neutral/slightly bearish). Not oversold; ample room to bounce without immediate overbought risk.
• MACD daily: Bearish cross recently with histogram slightly negative—typical during pullbacks. A flat-to-less-negative histogram tomorrow would validate a bounce attempt; outright expansion negative would warn of 174–173 test.
• Stochastics: Dropping from upper region into mid-band; prone to a reflex upturn near support.

8. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA: ~177–178. Price closed just under it, a classic battleground; reclaiming on an intraday basis would target 179.5–180.5.
• 50-day SMA: Rising, roughly low-to-mid 170s. The pullback remains above a rising 50-SMA, consistent with uptrend corrections rather than trend breaks.
• 200-day SMA: Well below current price; higher-timeframe uptrend intact.
• Short EMAs (8/13): Sloping down post 9/22, but close to flat; a one-day bounce can recapture the 8/13 EMAs and reset short-term momentum.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above the cloud; trend bias remains bullish.
• Tenkan near high-177s and Kijun near mid-176s: Today’s close roughly straddles the Kijun—classic retest. Holding/recapturing Tenkan tomorrow would telegraph resumed trend; losing Kijun strongly (sub-175.4) argues for 173.

10. Pivot framework (tomorrow’s map via today’s H/L/C)

• P = 177.38; R1 = 179.37; S1 = 174.99; R2 = 181.76; S2 = 173.00.
• Our plan seeks entry near 176.2 (between P and S1), aims for R1/R2 zone (180.2 within that band), and invalidates if we break-and-hold below S1 into S2 path.

11. VWAP considerations

• Intraday VWAP (9/24) hovered above late price into the close; a next-day VWAP recapture (maintaining above-session VWAP after first hour) often correlates with tests of R1. Watch for NQ/QQQ risk-on alignment for confirmation.

12. Pattern read and probability tree

• Pattern: Two-day pullback into confluence (gap-fill + Fib 50–61.8 + Kijun + S1 band). Typical outcome is a reflex bounce unless macro tape deteriorates.
• Scenario A (55%): Early dip-to-flat open, buyers defend 175.8–176.5, rotate to 178.5 pivot band and extend to 179.5–180.5 by close.
• Scenario B (30%): Range day 175.4–178.6, choppy under pivot; closes ~177–178; bounce likely deferred.
• Scenario C (15%): Clean break below 175.4; acceleration to 174.5 then 173.0 (S2). That opens a deeper test toward 172–171 in coming sessions.

13. Options/positioning color (qualitative)

• NVDA frequently exhibits sticky gamma at round numbers; 180 often acts as near-term magnet/resistance. Expect supply to appear into 179.5–180.5 unless broader market breaks higher.

14. Risk management and execution plan

• Entry tactic: Limit buy 176.20 in the golden-pocket/50% zone; alternatively scale 176.8 → 175.6 if liquidity is thin early. Avoid chasing over 178.5 on the initial push; better R:R comes on minor weakness.
• Invalidation/stop (suggested): 174.60 (below S1 and below 61.8% of the larger leg at 174.45 to avoid whips).
• Take profit (primary): 180.20 (near R1/R2 corridor and round-number supply). Secondary tranche (if held): 181.6–182.0 only if tape is trending and QQQ is supportive.
• Reward:risk from 176.20 → 180.20 with stop ~174.60 is roughly +4.0 / -1.6 ≈ 2.5:1.

15. What would change the view?

• Bearish: Early decisive breakdown of 175.4 with rising volume and prolonged VWAP rejection; macro risk-off (futures and QQQ heavy) would increase odds of 174–173.
• Bullish: Quick reclaim of 178.5 and hold above daily pivot P (177.38) with steady breadth; a VWAP hold after the first hour would support run to 179.5–180.5.

16. Noteworthy data artifact

• The intraday tape shows a 20:00 bar with a spike low 166.35 without volume—likely a bad print. Price quickly reverted to 176–177. Analysis ignores that outlier.

Conclusion: With the gap-fill complete and multiple supports aligning at 175.4–176.9, the base-case is a tactical bounce toward 179.5–180.5 within 24 hours, provided 175.4 holds. The optimal risk-adjusted plan is a buy-on-dip near 176.2 with a take-profit around 180.2 and a hard stop under 174.6.