NVDA poised to retake 180: bullish outside day and cloud support point to 181–182 retest

NVDA — multi-timeframe technical blueprint and 24-hour trading plan

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Moderately bullish with an upper test into 179.8–181.8 if 178.9 breaks cleanly; intraday dip risk to 176.0–176.5 first.
• Key drivers: Bullish outside day on rising volume, price reclaimed above 20-DMA and Tenkan, positive cloud structure, and constructive hourly structure. Overhead supply sits at 179.8–181.0; a break there opens 182–184.
• Expected 24h range: 175.8–181.8 (tail risk to 174.0 if market weakens).

1. Price action and structure

• Daily trend: Since early September’s trough (~167), NVDA recovered to 183.6 (9/22), pulled back to 176–177, and posted a bullish outside day on 9/25 (H 180.26, L 173.13, C 177.69) with higher volume. That combination often signals a tradable bullish reversal continuation when it closes above the prior close.
• Swing geometry: The 9/17 low 170.29 to 9/22 high 184.55 created a strong impulse; the subsequent pullback probed below the 61.8% retracement intraday, then closed back above the 50% level (details in Fib section). That’s a classic buy-the-dip behavior.
• Candle anatomy (9/25): Wide intraday range with a close in the upper half and a higher high/lower low relative to 9/24 (bullish outside bar). Demand emerged below 175 and persisted into the close.

2. Volume and participation

• Volume trend: 9/25 volume ~190.6M vs 143.6M on 9/24 and in line-to-above recent average. Rising price with rising volume confirms demand on the reversal day.
• Intraday distribution (hourly): The 15:30–16:30 ET push printed the session high 180.26 on heavy volume, followed by a controlled fade into the close, indicating overhead supply near 180–180.5 but not aggressive distribution.

3. Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• 20-DMA (approx): ~174.9. Price closed above it, signalling near-term positive momentum.
• 50-DMA (approx): low-to-mid 170s; price is above, maintaining intermediate uptrend alignment.
• 200-DMA (approx): low 160s; still well below, confirming the dominant long-term uptrend intact.
• Slope: 20-DMA rising again after the early-September wobble, consistent with a buy-the-dip regime as long as price holds above 175–176.

4. Ichimoku Cloud (trend and support)

• Tenkan (9-period midpoint, approx): ~177.4; close 177.7 sits slightly above Tenkan — a short-term bullish tilt.
• Kijun (26-period midpoint, approx): ~175.9; this aligns with a key daily support. Pullbacks into 175.5–176.0 are likely to find dip buyers.
• Cloud: Senkou Span A (~176.7) > Span B (~168.0) — a positive forward cloud. Price above Kijun and Cloud supports bullish continuation unless we close back below ~175.5.

5. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Estimated low-to-mid 50s (neutral-bullish). Room to push into high 50s/low 60s on a test of 181–183 before overbought signals emerge.
• MACD (12/26/9): Histogram flattening after a brief negative drift; 9/25 action suggests a bullish hook higher as price reclaimed above the 20-DMA and Tenkan.
• Stochastics: Mid-range and curling up — supportive of a near-term pop toward resistance rather than a breakdown.

6. Bollinger Bands and volatility

• 20,2 BB: Middle band ~20-DMA near 174.9. Price bounced above the mid-band, typically a bullish continuation tell. Upper band sits in the low 182s; expect resistance as we approach 181–183.
• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~5.0–5.5. With current price ~177–178, an average day can swing 2.5–3.0% either way. This supports a tactical 24h target into 181–182 if resistance breaks, with pullback risk to ~175–176.

7. Fibonacci retracements (confluence)

• Swing 9/17 low 170.29 to 9/22 high 184.55:
  • 61.8%: 175.95
  • 50%: 177.42
  • 38.2%: 178.90
  • 23.6%: 181.01 Interpretation: 9/25 closed back above the 50% (177.42). A push through 178.90 should magnetize 181.0–181.5 (Fib 23.6% + local supply), with 183.6–184.6 as an extended target beyond 24h if momentum accelerates.
• Swing 8/29 low 174.18 to 9/22 high 184.55:
  • 61.8%: 178.05
  • 50%: 179.37
  • 38.2%: 180.69 Interpretation: The 178–181 area is a multi-Fib confluence and the most important near-term battleground.

8. Classical pivot levels for next session (derived from 9/25 H/L/C)

• Pivot P: 177.03
• R1: 180.93
• R2: 184.16
• S1: 173.79
• S2: 169.89 Interpretation: Closing above P and attempting R1 is a bullish tell. Expect the market to probe R1 (180.9) on strength; failure there likely results in a fade to 178–179 or even a retest of P ~177.

9. Support and resistance map (confluence-driven)

• Immediate support: 176.0–176.5 (hourly swing + Kijun vicinity), then 175.0–175.2 (Fib 61.8% cluster), and 173.8–174.0 (S1 region/previous lows). Line-in-the-sand: 172.9–173.2 (9/25 intraday low zone).
• Immediate resistance: 178.9–179.4 (Fib + 50% of alternate swing), 180.2–180.9 (session high zone + R1), then 181.6–182.1 (upper band/Fib 23.6%), and 183.6–184.6 (9/22 high + R2) as an extended level.

10. Hourly chart takeaways (from provided intraday prints)

• Accumulation around 176.7–177.2 in the afternoon session with successive higher lows into the close. The spike to 180.26 was sold but not aggressively — the pullback held above the VWAP region (mid/high 177s) into the final hour. This is a constructive base for another 179–181 attempt if futures don’t gap down.
• Note: A stray 20:00 ET print showed an anomalous low ~167.7 — inconsistent with the daily low and likely a bad tick or off-exchange anomaly. Price quickly normalized in the 177s.

11. Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early dip to 176.3–176.9 gets bought; price grinds through 178.9, tests 180.2–180.9, and tags 181.5–181.8. Close near 179.5–181.0.
• Bullish breakout (20%): Strong open sustains above 180.9 quickly, momentum carries to 182.0–183.0; wicks toward 183.6 possible but likely fades back toward 181–182 by the close.
• Bearish fade (20%): Failure at 178.9/179.4 leads to a retest of 176.0–176.5; a decisive break below 175.5 exposes 174.0 and, on extension, 173.2. Odds of sustained trade <172.9 remain low absent a macro shock.

12. Risk management and trade design

• Rationale for long: Confluence of bullish outside day, reclaim above 20-DMA and Tenkan, supportive cloud, rising volume, and constructive hourly structure. Nearby, well-defined invalidation levels (175.5/174.9) allow favorable reward-to-risk for a tactical 24h long.
• Optimal entry: Buy-the-dip near 176.6–176.9 (Kijun/20-DMA shelf and yesterday’s VWAP region). If market gaps higher >179.5, prefer patience for a VWAP/pullback entry 178.8–179.4.
• Take-profit objective (24h): 181.5–181.8 (just ahead of upper band/23.6% Fib and below thick supply at 182–183) to improve the fill probability.
• Invalidation (stop reference): Below 174.9 (under Kijun/61.8% Fib and prior demand pocket). That preserves a ~2.5–3.0:1 reward:risk from a 176.8 entry to 181.8 target.

Bottom line

• With breadth of evidence skewing bullish and key supports holding, the path of least resistance in the next 24 hours is a grind higher into the 179.8–181.8 zone, with dip risk to ~176 first. Strategy: Buy on a controlled pullback; target the low 182s, exiting just ahead of stacked resistance.